The UK economy stagnated in April, according to the first official figures that have been seized upon by government critics as proof that the plan announced by the Conservatives is not working.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said there was zero growth in April compared to the 0.4% figure recorded in March.
A Reuters news agency survey of economists predicted 0% performance, given earlier evidence that wet weather had particularly hurt retail sales and construction output.
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The ONS GDP (Gross Domestic Product) report – the last to be released before the election – showed that overall rainfall in the UK was 155% of the long-term average in April.
As a result, construction production was found to have declined by 1.4%, analysts said, also helped by weak demand for construction products in the industrial sector.
Output fell by 0.9%, while the powerful services sector – responsible for almost 80% of the UK’s total output – grew by just 0.2%.
Despite the emphasis on the impact of rain, the figures still represent a setback to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s main election argument that the economy is improving following the successive successes of the COVID pandemic followed by the cost of living crisis.
The United Kingdom emerged from a short-term recession at the end of 2023, when growth of 0.6% was recorded in the first quarter of the current year.
Although economists continue to forecast growth in the three months to June, expectations are for growth of around 0.3% – half the rate achieved between January and March.
Before election day on 4 July, there will be a final set of inflation figures, followed the next day by an interest rate decision from the Bank of England.
Financial markets and economists see little chance of a rate reduction, largely because wages are growing at a pace that risks spurring further price growth after significant progress in the battle against inflation.
Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the ONS data: “Rishi Sunak claims we have turned a corner, but the economy has stagnated and there is no growth.
UK economy stagnates in April
“These numbers expose the damage done after 14 years of conservative chaos.
“We are now in the third week of this general election campaign and in that time the Labor Party has set out its plan to grow the economy, bring back stability, unlock private sector investment and reform our planning system.
“All the Conservatives are offering is more of the same, with a desperate wish list of unfunded spending promises that will mean £4,800 more on people’s mortgages. Rishi Sunak’s plan is a recipe for another five years of Tory chaos.”
Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney said the lack of growth in April showed the Conservatives had “completely failed” to deliver on their promises.
“As Rishi Sunak’s time as Prime Minister runs out, so does the UK’s economic growth,” she said.
“The Conservatives have completely failed to deliver the growth they repeatedly promised, instead presiding over stagnation and economic misery for working families across the country.
“The Conservative manifesto shows that they simply lack the ambition and vision to get the economy moving again.
“It’s clear to voters across the country that the only way to make this happen is to vote them out of office on July 4.”
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Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said of the outlook: “Forward-looking indicators point to a renewed momentum in activity over the coming months, supported by an improvement in consumer sentiment as wage growth remains strong.
“A general election in early summer could help resolve political uncertainty, which could boost business investment.
“However, whichever party wins the election will face a series of supply-side challenges that will constrain the UK’s long-term growth potential.
“We expect economic activity to remain slow in historical terms this year, with growth of just 0.5%.”
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