Imagine a skyscraper: the tallest you’ve ever seen. Imagine it surrounded by other tall buildings – a cityscape of skyscrapers.
Now imagine a small semi-detached house in front of these buildings.
What you are imagining is the best visual approximation of the statistical difference between the fiscal plans of most of this year’s manifestos – big, tall, imposing financial commitments to higher taxes and spending – and the Labor manifesto. That little semi-detached house is the Labor Party’s manifesto.
It is, at least in fiscal terms, a joke.
Latest election: Sunak hits record low in new poll
Now, there is a question we can address about whether the Labor Party will actually end up keeping its fiscal numbers close to those promised in its manifesto, but now we have it in black and white.
Broadly speaking, the manifesto has two parts: the part on day-to-day spending and the part on green investment. None of them introduce any new policies that we haven’t already heard about.
In short, the Labor Party plans to increase taxes by £7.4 billion by 2028/29 – mainly by tackling tax evasion, cracking down on non-households and forcing private schools to charge VAT. It plans to spend around £4.8 billion of that money, which doesn’t sound like a lot – and it isn’t. Indeed, there are real questions about whether this funding is enough to keep public services running, given that there are major cuts in real terms predicted over the coming years.
Even so, it implies that Labor will leave a security reserve of £2.5 billion in the public finances. In other words, it seems quite cautious.
Tap here to catch up on Politics at Jack at Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts
But there is more to this than meets the eye, because then we need to consider the Green Prosperity Plan – the remains of that £28 billion investment promise that Labor abandoned not so long ago. This adds an additional £4.7 billion in investment spending every year, offset by an additional tax on oil and gas companies in the North Sea.
The result of all this is that Labor is committing to borrowing more money – even though the money is used for investment rather than day-to-day expenses. They say this will be compatible with their tax rules, which is plausible – if, again, we assume they won’t actually need to spend more on public services (which most people think they will).
See more information:
Manifest Checker: What the Parties Are Promising
But the main takeaway isn’t the minute details of these policies – it’s how small the whole thing is. Let’s consider: the scale of the Tories’ plans (in this case I’m talking about overall spending) is around £16 billion a year until 2028/29. The scale of the Liberal Democrats’ plans is £27 billion (or £47 billion when investment is included, which it really should be).
The scale of Labour’s manifesto plans is just £10 billion a year. It is even more fiscally conservative than the Conservative manifesto.
And it is much, much smaller than the plans outlined by Jeremy Corbyn in the 2017 and 2019 manifestos. It involves a State that remains more or less the same size as today, with taxation slightly higher than the current one – but not by much.
Keep up with the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
But that brings us back to the question: will it really happen? Will Keir Starmer stick to these manifesto plans if Labor wins? His hope is that the economy will begin to grow, providing him with the tax revenue he needs to improve public services. But what if that doesn’t happen? The manifesto does not answer this question, but in due time it may be impossible to avoid.
This story originally appeared on News.sky.com read the full story
