A wave of promotional activities to attract football fans to supermarkets may have contributed to pushing food inflation to its lowest level since September 2021.
Kantar Worldpanel – which monitors prices, sales and market share in supermarkets – said its grocery measure inflation slowed to 1.6% in the four weeks to July 7, from 2.1% in the last month.
This left the value at its lowest level since September 2021 and marked the 17th consecutive drop in the monthly rate, following the peak seen in the months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Kantar said prices are rising fastest in markets like vitamins/minerals/supplements and refrigerated fruit juices and falling fastest in toilet paper, butter and dog food categories.
Supermarket promotions to attract football fans during Euro 2024 – highlighted by last month’s report – have led to stronger competition between chains in areas such as beer and snacks.
Kantar said trips to the store were up 2% in the four-week period compared with the same period last year, potentially driven by England and Scotland fans stocking up for group stage games and, more recently, for England’s quarter-final against Switzerland, which was the last match day for which data was available.
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Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insights at Kantar, said: “England’s hopes may have been dashed on Sunday, but there was still cause for celebration in the food industry.
“Football fans increased beer sales by an average of 13% on days the England men’s team played, compared to the same day the previous week.
“Sales of snacks and snacks also increased, 5% compared to the previous month.”
“However, with many games played on ‘school nights’, some Brits have opted for moderation. Spending on non-alcoholic and low-alcohol beer has increased by 38% on match days.”
Promotional activity has often been credited by Kantar in the past with boosting sales and slowing inflation, with Christmas seeing the peak in discounting activity.
More information on the role played by beer sales during Euro 2024 is expected later on Tuesday.
The main data were published just 24 hours before the official inflation figures for June were released.
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Economists expect the consumer price index to decline to 1.9% from 2% in the previous month.
However, financial market opinion is split 50-50 on whether the Bank of England will see enough this week from inflation data, followed soon after by employment figures, to allow an eager interest rate cut. expected on August 1st.
Policymakers want to see more evidence that services inflation and the pace of wage growth are slowing.
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