A fight between unlikely sparring partners. This week, Mali announced that it was cutting ties with Ukraine, after accusing Kiev of taking part in a devastating ambush in the Kidal region in the north of the West African country in late July, which resulted in the deaths of dozens of Malian soldiers.
The Tuareg separatist rebels who planned the attack claimed to have killed Malian soldiers and Russian Wagner fighters. Analysts said if these claims are true, this could be the worst defeat for the mercenary group since it was first deployed in 2021 to help military-led Mali combat a swarm of armed groups operating across the country. country.
The diplomatic dispute began last week after a spokesman for Ukraine’s military spy agency cryptically revealed that the rebels had the “necessary information” to carry out the July attack. Although he did not announce Kiev’s full complicity, his remarks raised fears that the war between Russia and Ukraine could be spilling over into African territory.
Colonel Abdoulaye Maiga, a spokesman for the Malian government, said on Sunday that his country was “deeply shocked” to hear the allegations. Ukraine “violated Mali’s sovereignty” by aiding the “cowardly, treasonous and barbaric attack,” he added.
Kyiv was quick to backtrack on its initial boast. In a statement released on Monday, the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called Bamako’s decision to cut ties “hasty”. Mali took action “without carrying out an in-depth study of the facts and circumstances of the incident… and without providing any proof of Ukraine’s involvement in the said event,” the statement said.
This complaint does not appear to have calmed tensions.
Niger, Mali’s ally and close neighbor, cut ties with Kiev on Tuesday in a show of support. Senegal also summoned Ukrainian ambassador Yurii Pyvovarov over the weekend and accused him of publishing a now-deleted video in support of the attack.
Russia, meanwhile, accused Ukraine of “pleasing terrorist groups” and opening “a second front in Africa” amid the ongoing war between the two countries.
“It was one of the most significant attacks against Russian paramilitary forces on the African continent,” Ryan Cummings, founder of security monitoring firm Signal Risk, told Al Jazeera. “At least two Russian commanders who previously led paramilitary operations in Ukraine were also killed in these attacks.”
Moscow’s accusations may not be far off the mark, according to analysts.
Devastating counterattack
The ambush began as an offensive by the Malian military and Russian forces, security experts said, but in the end it was a bloodbath for the Malian side. Some 47 Malian soldiers and 84 Russian mercenaries were killed, according to the rebels. The Malian government did not provide figures but said it suffered “significant losses” and lost a helicopter.
For decades, ethnic Tuaregs have accused Bamako of marginalization and waged separatist rebellions in the north of the country in an attempt to create an independent Azawad region.
In a 2012 uprising, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) took Kidal, Gao and Timbuktu – cities in the north – forcing the government to turn to former colonial power France, which mobilized thousands of soldiers to support it. The United Nations also deployed the 11,000-strong MINUSMA peacekeeping force to support the military as it fought not only the separatists, but several other armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS) and operating in northern desert.
A fragile 2015 UN-brokered peace deal with some Tuareg factions largely held until 2023, when Mali’s military rulers – who seized power in a coup d’état in 2020 – severed ties with France and expelled your soldiers. He also expelled the MINUSMA force, accusing both units of having failed to curb insecurity. Russian boots would already be on the ground when French troops withdrew.
Malian forces then renewed hostilities with the Tuareg, whom they blamed for “terrorist acts” amid allegations that they were partnering with ideologically motivated armed groups. As French and UN bases became vacant, the military and rebels fought to take control, resulting in intense clashes. In November, Malian forces, now working alongside Russian fighters, retook Kidal from the rebels amid devastating attacks that human rights groups say have caused many civilian deaths.
Since then, Mali-Russian units have advanced further into more remote rebel-held areas in offensives. By mid-July, they had penetrated deep into Tuareg territory, near Mali’s border with Algeria, said analyst Liam Karr of the US-based Critical Threats Project (CTP), which monitors violent conflicts. But government units did not have the manpower to maintain these areas, he added.
On July 25, fighters from the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD), the Tuareg coalition, attacked a Russian-Malian patrol convoy in the district of Tinzaouatene. The fighters tactically withdrew for days and then launched a counterattack amid a sandstorm, killing several soldiers.
“The Tuareg ambushed this convoy, ran us aground and forced us to retreat into JNIM territory [Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal-Muslimin],” Karr said, referring to a group linked to al Qaeda. The ensuing battle lasted two days, during which most of the casualties on the Russian-Malian side occurred, he said.
“Our forces decisively destroyed these enemy columns,” said a CSP-PSD spokesperson. The group claimed it took Malian and Russian prisoners, shot down a helicopter and seized “large quantities” of equipment and weapons. Seven of its fighters were killed and 12 were injured, he added.
The rebels and JNIM claimed credit for the attack. The fact that the ambush included a group linked to al-Qaeda is likely the reason Ukraine walked back its claim, some analysts said.
Kiev’s political miscalculation
Experts said details about how exactly Ukraine could have provided assistance to the Malian rebels were sketchy.
Some security analysts with inside knowledge of the attacks said Ukrainian forces may have provided limited training to Tuareg fighters outside Mali, teaching them how to operate drones, launch IEDs and launch mortar attacks.
Analyst Cummings told Al Jazeera that there is limited evidence to suggest Kiev had forces on the ground, however, and Ukraine’s claims of supporting the Tuareg were likely exaggerated.
“There is certainly no definitive evidence to suggest that Ukraine was specifically involved… I think this was an opportunity to show that Ukraine can target Russian interests not only in the conflict zones where these two countries are involved, but also in Africa, where Russia is increasingly valuing its diplomatic and political involvement.” Ukraine’s involvement was probably “exaggerated,” she added.
Andriy Yusov, the Ukrainian spokesman whose statement sparked the diplomatic incident, was speaking on Ukrainian television when he disclosed Kiev’s possible involvement. “The fact that the rebels received the necessary data to successfully carry out an operation against Russian war criminals was observed by the whole world. Of course, we will not disclose details. More information to come,” Yusov boasted.
But with al-Qaeda involved, the move appears to have backfired as Ukraine can now be seen as supporting armed groups with ideological affiliations, experts say.
It is a setback for Kiev, which seeks to enlist the support of African countries and combat Russian influence. Last week, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba embarked on his fourth trip to Africa in two years, making stops in Malawi, Zambia and Mauritius, even as the Malians cut ties, and Senegal recalled the ambassador Ukrainian in West Africa for the declaration.
“It appears that the Ukrainian government was not aware of the political permutations of this attack,” Cummings said.
Karr said that Yusov’s initial claims, which suggested significant Ukrainian aid for the Tuareg, were undermined by the fact that the fighters did not particularly need help from Kiev, as they already had significant weaponry and manpower.
“I’m not convinced there’s much help from Ukraine there,” he said. “That [ambush] is not even new in Malian theater, these are not new capabilities for the [Tuareg] group.”
A proxy war in Africa?
Russian forces have also been targeted by Ukrainian agents in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Sudan, where they also operate, although analysts say the evidence is scant.
“I have heard rumors of Ukrainian pilots targeting Russian groups, but we cannot rule out the fact that these may be private groups that are not related to the government,” Cummings said.
The regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which is in the middle of a fight with the military governments of Mali, Niger and neighboring Burkina Faso, has denounced foreign intervention in the region amid the fighting.
But fears that West Africa could turn into a proxy war site for Russia and Ukraine are probably unfounded, experts say, as Kiev needs resources to combat Russia’s continued encroachment.
“I think this is probably a one-time event,” Karr said, one that probably wouldn’t have much of an impact on the international stage. “To begin with, Ukraine did not have strong ties to West Africa, and Ukraine [Western] allies also don’t have much of a presence in the region at the moment,” he said, referring to the reduced US reach in Africa, at a time when China and Russia are gaining more friends. “This is a zero times zero equals zero situation.”
However, Cummings warned, there could be another type of proxy war that has fueled the war between Russia and Ukraine so far: disinformation.
“It could be a war of rhetoric,” he said. “Russia’s war against Ukraine is largely a war of disinformation and the fact that Ukraine may try to combat Russian disinformation cannot be ruled out. [in Africa] Likewise.”
As for Mali, the dispute is unlikely to shake its relations with Russian forces, as Bamako has become increasingly politically dependent on Russia, analysts say, but the recent defeat is likely to force the government to rethink its strategy as it seeks to regain power. rebellious north.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
