By every quantifiable measure, Bangladesh’s now-deposed prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, was the most entrenched, dominant and brutal dictator the country had seen since its independence. She arrested, exiled and eliminated most of her political peers like no other ruler in the history of South Asia. She brought all branches of the Bangladeshi state under her command with such great effectiveness that at some point she became the state.
However, a leaderless movement of university students challenged her with marches with pre-announced dates and locations. In a matter of weeks, these young revolutionaries took the nation with them to the streets, to the point that Hasina had to take a helicopter to escape. They achieved something that the former prime minister’s established political rivals tried for more than a decade but consistently failed to achieve.
While young revolutionaries and their supporters have many reasons to celebrate, the path ahead for the country will not be without challenges.
A recipe for a successful student movement
The beginning of the end for Hasina came when a group of young people began to demand the elimination of an unfair quota system in the distribution of jobs in the public service, which essentially consisted of giving preferential treatment to the family members of her political cronies.
When organizing their protests, students created a distributed co-leadership structure, where leaders played the role of coordinators. They called their coalition the Students Against Discrimination movement. The coordinators came from public and private educational institutions.
What could have been suppressed with a few simple promises of future reforms was inflamed by rude comments from the prime minister and brutal repression by her security forces. But the protest organizers were battle-tested and knew exactly what to expect.
Just six years ago, many of them had participated, as teenagers, in another massive wave of demonstrations that focused on the country’s lawless transport sector. These protests erupted after a commercial bus ran over two students. The vehicle that caused these deaths was owned by a company linked to a family member of a minister.
Just like in 2024, in 2018 young people were mercilessly beaten by Hasina’s civilian militia, that is, the student wing of the Awami League party. The use of violence succeeded in suppressing the protests, but not before this generation of revolutionaries had gained sufficient experience in organizing successful protests, creating alternative command structures, using improvised communication techniques under internet lockdowns, and escape from government surveillance, etc.
All these skills helped them in their successful attempt to overthrow the most ruthless dictator in the history of Bangladesh.
Is this the end for Sheikh Hasina?
Hasina has had to leave Bangladesh before. While she was residing in Europe, a bloody coup took place against her father, President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, in 1975, which killed almost her entire family. She prolonged her stay abroad and only returned to the country in the early 1980s. She quickly rose to prominence on the political scene and managed to create a cult following among members of her father’s Awami League.
After another military coup in 2006, both Hasina and her main political rival, Khaleda Zia, were on the verge of losing the right to participate in politics in Bangladesh. Zia refused to go into exile and remained in Bangladesh under house arrest. Hasina opted for the safe exit and spent time in Europe and the United States before returning to Bangladesh. She contested the 2008 elections and won in a landslide.
But his triumphant return to power in 2008 is unlikely to be repeated. Given the massive bloodshed and indiscriminate killings that have occurred during his tenure, it will be extremely difficult for 76-year-old Hasina to regain her political fortunes this time.
General Waker Uz Zaman, the military chief who eventually asked Hasina to leave the country, is related to her by marriage. However, the possibility of a successful counter-coup to facilitate her return to Bangladesh is unlikely at this time, given popular resentment towards her government.
The fact that no other political figure of her stature has ever had to flee the country in the face of the people’s fury has permanently damaged Hasina’s reputation as an invincible leader. After all, she was driven out by hundreds of thousands of young men wielding sticks and bricks, while her men had all the weapons and shot indiscriminately. This inglorious exit will make her future return politically unsustainable.
What’s next for Bangladesh
An interim government led by one of Hasina’s enemies, Dr. Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s only Nobel laureate, took office on August 8, three days after Hasina fled. Dr. Yunus, one of the few prominent political figures respected across the country, will be chief advisor, a title equivalent to prime minister.
The 16-person panel of advisors (the equivalent of ministers) he chose includes figures from civil society, several of whom have received international praise. Among the advisors are two important coordinators of the student movement. Dr. Yunus and his selected advisors have received positive acceptance from the media and the public so far, but they have a difficult job ahead of them.
Right now, student organizers are demanding that Bangladeshi politics be rid of politicians associated with corruption and mismanagement, not just during Hasina’s rule but also in the governments that came before her.
The problem is that Hasina’s political DNA is found in every corner of the Bangladeshi state she left behind. Her handpicked judges, bureaucrats, police and military commanders continue to run the show. Making the new government acceptable to the people will require a messy process of administrative reshuffling, dismissals and outright arrests of Hasina’s staff, a process that has already begun.
During his first televised speech, General Zaman promised to bring justice to the victims of indiscriminate killings committed by the state apparatus during Hasina’s reign. The interim government’s recently appointed advisers echoed this intention. This accountability process, however, will certainly be time-consuming and it is unclear whether it can ever be completed under his watch. Reforming the police, civilian bureaucracy and military command to restore people’s confidence in any future electoral process will also take time.
Dr. Yunus also has to face several challenges in relations with Bangladesh’s two big neighbors: India and China.
India, the country that was Hasina’s main supporter on the world stage, is both shocked and saddened by her departure. It has security concerns about the possible breakdown of law and order and the selective repression of Bangladesh’s large Hindu population.
Gobinda Chandra Pramanik, one of the most prominent leaders of Bangladesh’s Hindu community, sought to assuage Indian fears, saying that Hindus face as much anarchy as the rest of the country at the moment and that things are gradually calming down as volunteers from the main parties Politicians are showing up to protect the Hindu community.
The advisors’ office and the main political parties in general may have to face Indian pressure so that personnel who posed serious threats to that country’s national security do not return to power. This negotiation will be complicated.
Hasina’s geopolitical chessboard was intended to counter American human rights concerns, addressing India’s security fears and interacting with China’s business interests. Now, the incoming administration may be busy assuaging Indian security concerns by addressing American anxieties about China. Orchestrating this geopolitical dance will benefit from the broad international acceptance that Dr. Yunus brings, but execution and realization may still be difficult.
The main task of the interim government remains the organization of new general elections. The demands of a court to prosecute thousands of illegal deaths and serious human rights violations, both locally and internationally, could complicate matters for the Awami League’s participation in a future national election. The party itself can also base its future electoral participation on conditions that favor the return of Hasina’s clan, or even Hasina herself.
All other parties will also face legal difficulties, given the serious criminal charges filed by Hasina against her political opponents to make them ineligible to contest elections. This includes Tarique Rahman, the de facto leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, who is serving a life sentence for his alleged role in a 2004 plot to assassinate Hasina. Bangladesh’s largest Islamic political party, Jamaat-e-Islami, was banned on August 3 and prevented from running in elections since 2013.
Given the immense obstacles, the current interim government in Bangladesh is likely to last several months, if not at least a year. Upon taking office, the councilors gave no indication as to the length of their mandate.
Many Bangladeshis consider Hasina’s overthrow to be their second independence – the first being the break with Pakistan 53 years ago.
There is exuberance and hope for a better future everywhere. But optimism must be cautious. Whether this latest revolution will consecrate a fairer, freer, less brutal and democratic Bangladesh depends on the viability of the demands made by the revolutionaries and the dexterity of the new administration, not only with regard to its management, but also in responding to pressure from forces external.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
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