Can Imran Khan and the Pakistani army recover, a year after violent clashes? | Politics News

Islamabad, Pakistan – The Chief of the Pakistan Army, General Asim Munir, was blunt. Addressing army officials during his visit to Lahore Garrison on May 9, Munir said: “There can be no compromise or compromise with the planners and architects of this dark chapter in our history.”

Munir was referring to the events of May 9, 2023, when Pakistan erupted into violence and a subsequent crackdown after former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested while appearing before the Islamabad High Court for a hearing on a case of corruption.

Thousands of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party workers responded to Khan’s arrest by storming the streets of several cities, demanding his immediate release and triggering a riot that targeted state buildings and military installations. Angry supporters in Lahore attacked the residence of a top military commander, setting the building on fire. Another group of protesters stormed the gates of the Pakistani military headquarters in Rawalpindi.

Although Khan was released two days later, he was arrested again in August. By this time, the police had already arrested thousands of PTI workers and party leaders. An already tense relationship between the Pakistani military and the PTI broke down, resulting in public hostility.

Now, a year later, that fractured relationship continues to put pressure on a political system that is also struggling to manage an economic crisis that is affecting the daily lives of Pakistan’s 240 million people, analysts say. The military, which felt directly challenged — and even attacked — on May 9, 2023, continues to be Pakistan’s most powerful institution. Meanwhile, the PTI, which emerged as Pakistan’s most popular political force in February’s national elections despite its talismanic leader being behind bars and despite the crackdown against him, faces questions about its future.

“It is no secret that our relationship with the military leadership has deteriorated and there is significant distrust on both sides,” Taimur Jhagra, a senior PTI leader and former minister in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial government, told Al Jazeera. “This will have to be resolved because in no country can the greatest political force and the strongest institution of the state oppose each other.”

Pakistan’s military – euphemistically known in the country as the “establishment” – has directly governed the country for more than three decades since independence and has also exerted significant influence under civilian governments.

When Khan became Pakistan’s prime minister in August 2018 after winning elections, his rivals alleged that the military facilitated his triumph. Four years later, Khan accused the military of orchestrating his removal from power through a vote of no confidence. The military has rejected both these accusations and allegations that it plays the role of kingmaker in Pakistani politics.

In the 12 months after he left office, Khan held massive rallies and long marches to Islamabad, survived an assassination attempt, gave daily speeches and repeatedly accused the military of joining a US-backed plot to oust him from office. . The US has also consistently denied these accusations.

But tensions between Khan and the military exploded in May last year. Two weeks after the violent May 9 protests, as security agencies cracked down on alleged perpetrators, more than 100 party leaders announced their decision to abandon the party in hastily organized press conferences that often appeared staged. The party, it seemed, was imploding.

A former PTI leader who was once considered close to Khan but ended up leaving the party after May 9 said he frequently raised concerns within the party about the growing confrontation with the military months before the events that unfolded last year.

“I have said this repeatedly in our party meetings, that we could be heading towards a major disaster as both sides, us and them, are perhaps underestimating each other and heading towards a confrontation,” he told Al Jazeera under condition of anonymity.

Several party leaders were arrested on charges of plotting the events of May 9, 2023.

Although the PTI insists that the events were part of a “false flag operation” to defame the party, some analysts believe that the party miscalculated the military’s response to that day’s riots.

“They assumed they had room to challenge the military, since Khan was able to get away with saying things publicly that others had been punished for saying, and quickly. But they got it wrong when they tried to challenge the military’s monopoly on violence,” political scientist Sameen Mohsin, assistant professor at the University of Birmingham, told Al Jazeera.

Asma Faiz, associate professor of political science at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, said the “very calm relationship” the PTI once enjoyed with the military may have given the party confidence that it could survive the escalation of tensions.

“The PTI still continues to enjoy support among individuals in the armed forces, the judiciary and the bureaucracy, so there is also broad social support. I think that led to this miscalculation on their part, but they had their reasons and logic,” she said.

Jhagra, the PTI leader, said the party had made it clear that anyone found guilty of violating the law should be punished. “But you must remember that May 9 [protests and violence] It didn’t happen in isolation. Following the vote of no confidence that led to the dismissal of the government and the arrest of Khan on May 9, questions must be asked whether May 9 would have happened if the events of last year had not happened,” he said.

As the party continued to face arrests and legal challenges, Khan, who had already been charged in more than 100 cases, was arrested on August 5 last year in a corruption case related to state gifts since he was prime minister. He was prevented from contesting elections due to his conviction. In December 2023, the party’s symbol, a cricket bat, was removed by the country’s electoral commission due to “irregularities” in the PTI’s intra-party elections.

Just 10 days before the elections, the former prime minister was convicted in three different cases – revealing state secrets, illegal sale of state gifts and illegal marriage.

Despite these setbacks, PTI-backed candidates, who were forced to run as independents because the party had lost its symbol, emerged as the largest bloc, winning 93 seats in the lower house of Pakistan’s parliament.

“The people of Pakistan believe that Imran Khan is a patriotic leader and that his supporters are being treated unfairly. The February 8 election results showed this,” Jhagra said.

Still, the party has refused to form a coalition with any of its political rivals: the PTI has long described the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan People’s Party, the other two main national parties, as corrupt , and states that he will not join hands with them.

Thus, they themselves joined hands, forming the coalition that currently governs Pakistan, under the command of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

However, a year after the May 9 protests, the rhetoric from both sides remains harsh. Khan, who remains behind bars, continues to criticize the military. The military, for its part, insisted that those involved in the May 9 violence will be punished. “It was a futile attempt to provoke a misguided and short-sighted revolution in the country,” said Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the military’s media arm, in a press release to mark the anniversary of the incident.

The military described May 9, 2023 as “one of the darkest days” in the country’s history.

Jhagra insists that the PTI is not an anti-military party, but acknowledged that there was a lack of trust between the two.

Lahore-based analyst Benazir Shah noted that at this juncture, “both the PTI and the establishment must back down from confrontation.”

“The ISPR press conference underlines that the establishment still refuses to interact with the PTI. Despite the PTI’s history of populism and perhaps certain undemocratic actions, it continues to be an electoral force. Ignoring him and avoiding dialogue with his leadership would not be in the interests of the state,” she told Al Jazeera.

The PTI also needs to reflect, said the party’s former leader who resigned after the May 9 violence. The party’s current strategy, he said, was incomprehensible to him.

“On the one hand, you ruled out a political agreement” with political parties, he said. “You stood up to the establishment believing they would give in to pressure, but I don’t think that makes sense in reality,” he added.

Still, Faiz, the Lahore-based political scientist, stressed that the PTI survived last year’s setbacks – as did the parties it now accuses of betraying democracy.

“We don’t give Pakistani political parties enough credit,” she said. “PPP survived martial law, PMLN survived martial law and now PTI is showing courage. They all have a certain resilience.”

What happens next could depend on some difficult questions for both sides, suggested Mohsin, the political scientist.

“The question for the PTI is whether prominent members of the party will decide that they prefer to be in power rather than be loyal to Khan and remain out of favor with the military establishment,” she said.

Shah, the Lahore-based analyst, said the PTI needed to abandon its stance of refusing to talk to other political parties.

But Pakistan’s military establishment and broader political class must also try to understand why so many people, including young men and women, “turned out so passionately for their leader and the party” on May 9, 2023, she said.

“The question to ask here would be: What was the root cause of the anger among these people?” Shah said. “This is a question that must be answered to prevent another May 9th from happening in the future.”