On May 29, South Africans will vote in national and provincial elections to elect a new National Assembly and state legislatures. The National Assembly will choose the president for the next five years.
It will be the country’s seventh democratic general election since the end of apartheid in 1994, when Nelson Mandela was elected president and the ANC won 62.5 percent of the 400 seats in the National Assembly.
After 30 years of dominance, the African National Congress (ANC) faces its toughest elections ever, needing 50 percent of the National Assembly to maintain its parliamentary majority.
When do the polls open?
A total of 23,292 polling stations will be open from 7:00 am to 9:00 pm (05:00 GMT to 19:00 GMT), with election day declared a public holiday to facilitate voting.
According to Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), 27.79 million South Africans aged 18 and over have registered for this year’s elections, up from 26.74 million in 2019.
Registered voters living abroad will vote on May 17th and 18th, and voters with special needs, including pregnant women and people with disabilities, will vote two days before election day, on May 27th and 28th.
How does the election work?
South Africa follows a proportional voting system where parties and candidates compete for 400 seats in the parliament known as the National Assembly.
For the first time, independent candidates will compete in elections. To accommodate this change, voters will receive three ballots instead of two, each requiring them to choose a party or candidate.
Two votes will be to elect the National Assembly and the third will be to elect members of the provincial legislature in each of South Africa’s nine provinces.
South Africa’s electoral management body, the CEIreleased 14,889 candidates, including 70 political parties and 11 independents, to contest 887 seats in the May vote.
- National vote (blue vote)
- Same vote across the country
- Voters choose one of 52 political parties
- Represents 200 seats in the National Assembly
- Regional national assembly (orange vote)
- Unique for each province
- Voters elect a political party or independent candidate
- Represents the remaining 200 seats in the National Assembly
- Provincial legislature (pink ballot)
- Unique for each province
- Voters elect political parties and independent candidates
- The number of seats is determined by the population size in each province
Who is in the current National Assembly of South Africa?
The lower house of South Africa’s parliament currently includes 14 political parties represented by 400 members, distributed proportionally based on the votes each party received in the 2019 elections.
- African National Congress (ANC): 230 seats (57.5 percent)
- Democratic Alliance (AD): 84 seats (21 percent)
- Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): 44 seats (11 percent)
- Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP): 14 seats (3.5 percent)
Ten other parties occupy the remaining 28 seats.
How is the president of South Africa elected?
South Africans do not vote directly for the president.
Instead, they elect 400 members of the National Assembly, who then choose the president by a simple majority – 201 or more votes determine the presidency.
If the ANC secures more than 50 percent of the seats, President Cyril Ramaphosa, 71, will most likely be re-elected as president to serve his second and final five-year term.
What if no party wins a majority?
Opinion polls suggest that the ANC, which is in power, is hovering around 40 percentwill probably lose the majority.
If this happens, then the ANC will have to try to make a deal with other parties to form a coalition government, with the choice of coalition partner depending on its distance from the 50 percent mark.
However, unless the ANC performs much worse than expected, there is a small probability of it being removed from government altogether.
How did the ANC perform in the previous elections?
The ANC has won every election since the end of apartheid in 1994, when Mandela became the country’s first black president.
In the 1994 and 1999 elections, the ANC won 62.5 percent and 66.36 percent of the vote respectively, with a high voter turnout of 86 percent and 89 percent.
In 2004, amid a lower voter turnout of 76 percent, the ANC reached its highest levels, winning almost 70 percent of the vote and securing Thabo Mbeki a second term as president.
In September 2008, Kgalema Motlanthe assumed the role of interim president following the resignation of President Mbeki, at the request of his party. He held this position until 2009, when Jacob Zuma took office following the ANC’s victory with almost 66 percent of the vote.
Five years later, in the 2014 elections, the ANC emerged victorious, but with a reduced percentage of votes, 62 percent. The Democratic Alliance (AD) made significant gains, securing 22 percent of the vote. The newly formed Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party, under the leadership of former African National Congress Youth League (ANCYL) president Julius Malema, won 6 percent of the vote.
In 2018, after years of infighting and scandals, Zuma announced his resignation, leading Vice President Cyril Ramaphosa to assume the presidency.
In the 2019 elections, voter turnout reached a low of 66 percent, with the ANC receiving 57.5 percent of the vote.
Who is likely to win?
Four of the biggest players to watch out for in this year’s elections are the ANC, the DA, the MK and the EFF.
ANC – Cyril Ramaphosa (71)
According to the local broadcaster’s most recent opinion poll eNCAsupport for the ANC is around 43.4 percent – an increase of two points from two months ago.
The ANC is expected to win majorities in seven of South Africa’s nine provinces.
However, he is predicted to be defeated by Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), and also in the Western Cape, where the DA is poised for another victory.
DA – John Steenhuisen (48)
In second place, with around 18.6 percent, is the country’s official opposition, the DA, which has been campaigning on a platform to “rescue South Africa”.
The DA currently holds a majority in the Western Cape province of South Africa, with Cape Town as its capital. In the 2019 elections, he obtained 55.45 percent of the votes in the province.
MK-Jacob Zuma (82)
The MK party, named after the ANC’s former paramilitary wing, uMkhonto we Sizwe (meaning “Spear of the Nation”), is currently in third place in the polls, with 14.1 percent.
The party led by former president Zuma was formed in 2023 and is expected to gain seats from the ANC.
In May, South Africa’s Constitutional Court banned Zuma from running for parliament following his contempt of court conviction in 2021; however, he continues to be the face of the party and is expected to field a party candidate as his replacement.
EFF – Julio Malema (43)
In the top four, with 11.4 percent, is the anti-establishment EFF led by Julius Malema.
Previously an ally of Zuma, Malema was expelled from the ANC in 2012 due to disagreements with the then president and other party members. He then founded the EFF in 2013.
When will the results be announced?
O CEI it normally starts releasing partial results a few hours after the polls close.
In the last national elections held on Wednesday 8 May 2019, the final results were announced three days later on Saturday 11 May.
However, this year, with one more vote to count, verifying the results may take longer.
The IEC says it will announce the election results on Sunday, June 2.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
