On June 2, people across Mexico will go to the polls to choose a new leader, as part of the biggest election in the country’s history.
The election will allow voters to decide more than 20,700 positions at the federal and local levels, including 500 seats in the country’s House of Representatives and 128 in the Senate.
But much of the attention will be focused on the presidential race as Andrés Manuel López Obrador, colloquially known as AMLO, ends his term as one of the most popular leaders in Mexico’s modern history.
Scientist and former mayor of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum hopes to succeed AMLO as the candidate of the Morena political party. But she faces competition from conservative rival Xochitl Galvez, a former senator and businessman of Otomi indigenous descent.
If Sheinbaum or Galvez manage to win the presidency, it will be a historic moment for Mexico: never before has a woman been elected president.
As Mexicans in each of the country’s 32 states prepare to go to the polls, Al Jazeera explores what’s at stake in the elections. What issues dominated the campaign and how does the electoral process work?
We answer these questions and more in this explainer.
How big are the 2024 elections?
About 100 million Mexicans are expected to vote in June, a record for a country that has seen voter turnout decline in previous elections.
Turnout in this year’s elections is expected to increase by approximately 11 million voters during the last presidential election in 2018.
What will the vote be like?
According to the National Electoral Institute (INE), the country’s electoral oversight body, Mexicans will vote in 170,000 polling stations (PDF) all over the country. It is necessary to present a voter card to participate.
Mexico has one of the largest diaspora populations in the world, with more than 11 million people living abroad. But registered voters who are outside the country can still vote online, by mail or in person at Mexican consulates.
Early voting was also permitted for people with disabilities or limited physical mobility, from May 6th to May 20th.
On June 2nd, the polls will open at least 8am and close at 6pm. Voters who are still in line by 6pm should be able to vote.
After the polls close, electoral officials will begin counting the results, with INE providing real-time statistics. A second count to finalize the results will be held from June 5th to 8th.
What are the main parties?
Two main coalitions have emerged in this election cycle in the battle for the presidency.
One of them is a conservative coalition made up of three parties, collectively titled “Strength and Heart for Mexico.” The second is a left-wing coalition led by the Morena party, called “Let’s Continue Making History”.
The first includes the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD).
The PRI was the dominant political force in Mexico for much of the 20th century, maintaining power for 71 consecutive years, often through fraud and repression. The “Strength and Heart for Mexico” coalition joins him with the PAN, a rival conservative party that ended its series of governors in 2000.
The second coalition unites Morena – the current government party – with the Green Ecological Party of Mexico (Green) and the Labor Party (PT).
Another party, the Citizens’ Movement, is running alone for seats outside the two main coalitions.
Are these traditional coalitions?
Carlos Bravo Regidor, a writer and political analyst based in Mexico City, says that these coalitions are a novelty in Mexican politics – and proof of AMLO’s impact on the political scene.
“This is an entirely new political configuration that is the result of López Obrador,” he said.
Regidor explained that López Obrador became so popular that former rivals had to ally themselves to compete in this year’s presidential race.
“Having PRI, PAN and PRD working together is a historical aberration. For most of Mexico’s democratic history, these three parties competed against each other,” he explained.
“This is a testament to the impact that López Obrador has had, that these three parties – historical rivals that have represented the right, left and center on the Mexican political spectrum – are all running together trying to defeat López Obrador’s candidates.”
Who represents the coalitions in the presidential race?
Sheinbaum represents “Let’s Keep Making History,” the left-wing coalition. Galvez, his conservative rival, was chosen to be the presidential candidate for “Strength and Heart for Mexico”.
Meanwhile, former member of Congress Jorge Alvarez Maynez is running on behalf of the Citizens Movement.
What are the central issues of the campaign?
Polls show that voters listed issues such as security, social programs and corruption as top priorities.
The election is also seen as a referendum on López Obrador’s presidency.
Sheinbaum, his protégé, has promised to carry forward AMLO’s policies of expanding social programs and spearheading major infrastructure projects such as the Maya Train, a controversial railway line that crosses the Yucatán peninsula.
Gálvez emerged as a protest candidate, promising to crack down on violence and corruption with a tough hand: she criticized López Obrador for saying he would address crime through “hugs, not bullets.”
Despite using the slogan during his 2018 presidential campaign, López Obrador expanded the role of the country’s military in domestic law enforcement. Galvez, for his part, said he would begin to reverse the trend of relying on the military for public security.
How did crime influence the 2024 race?
The ongoing violence faced by the country was felt during the campaign season, with around 34 would-be candidates killed between September and May.
Last month, two mayoral candidates were found dead in the northern state of Tamaulipas. And on May 17, gunmen in the southern state of Chiapas killed six people at a political rally, including another mayoral candidate.
Authorities blamed drug cartels and organized crime for the killings, which largely affected local racing.
Who is leading the presidential race?
Most polls show Sheinbaum with a sizable lead of more than 20 points over Galvez. Maynez is considered a long shot.
AMLO’s popularity should also help boost Morena in the elections, where his coalition aims to expand its majority in the legislature.
Why is Sheinbaum so far ahead?
Regidor, the political analyst, said that Gálvez played a good game and led a very dynamic campaign. But he believes that Gálvez’s affiliation with the PAN and PRI parties has harmed his prospects.
“All the negative attributes you can imagine, Mexican voters are the ones they most associate with the PRI and, to a lesser extent, the PAN,” Regidor explained.
“Therefore, Xochitl was unable to run as a candidate of change, because the idea of change is incompatible with running under the banner of the PAN and the PRI.”
In 2006, under the presidency of Felipe Calderón, the government launched its controversial “war on drugs”, relying on a militarized approach to law enforcement.
But this strategy led to an explosion of violence while doing little to curb the narcotics trade. It has also fueled growing reports of military abuses, including evidence of open collaboration between security forces and criminal groups.
However, the PRI has long been dogged by accusations of corruption and oppression: from 1929 to 2000, it was the dominant force in Mexican politics.
The longtime party briefly regained the presidency in 2012 with candidate Enrique Pena Nieto. But corruption scandals and dissatisfaction with his neoliberal economic policies led to AMLO’s election in 2018.
“Something that helps explain López Obrador’s great victory in 2018 is the discredit of these traditional parties. In poll after poll, they ask voters: Who is the worst in terms of corruption? The pri. Who is the worst with violence? The pri. Who is the worst at taking care of the poor? The PRI”, said Regidor.
He added that the PRI’s long history has left a lasting bad smell in the eyes of voters.
“The PRI has become the Chernobyl of Mexican politics. It’s so toxic.”
What is the legacy of the outgoing president?
López Obrador has consistently been ranked as one of the most popular world leaders currently in power – although his election in 2018 came after two failed runs for president.
Known for his outspoken personality, López Obrador made the fight against poverty a central pillar of his presidency.
But it has also promoted controversial initiatives that critics say aim to diminish the independence of the country’s judiciary and electoral oversight body. Furthermore, it expanded the role of the military to include infrastructure projects and public security initiatives, despite concerns about human rights violations.
His critics have also expressed disappointment at his failure to crack down on crime and address the thousands of missing persons cases in Mexico, which have surpassed 100,000 under his presidency.
Most of these cases were registered after the country launched its “war on drugs” in 2006. Providing answers to the families of the missing was a promise López Obrador campaigned on in 2018.
Why can’t AMLO run for a second term?
During his tenure, López Obrador achieved something increasingly elusive in global politics: consistently high levels of popularity.
According to a poll tracker by the Society of the Americas and the Council of the Americas, AMLO’s approval, although falling from an initial high of 81 percent, never fell below 60 percent.
Given this level of popularity, why can’t López Obrador run for a second term?
The answer is simple: Mexico’s constitution explicitly limits the presidency to a single term.
This is a legacy of the Mexican Revolution, which was fought after decades of rule by dictator Porfirio Diaz, known as Porfiriato. His leadership turned “non-reelection” into a common battle cry.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
