For many commentators, an unequivocal victory for Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a foregone conclusion to the ongoing Indian general elections. They insist the question is not whether Modi will win, but by how much in terms of seats and votes.
However, despite this apparent certainty regarding the outcome of these elections, the ruling party and its leader appear nervous. And after the winner is declared, I fear that darker, more repressive days may come.
Indian elections are indeed a big event. A total of 543 seats in the Chamber of Deputies are up for grabs for 2,600 registered political parties. With 969 million eligible voters, it is also the largest election in the world. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has 15 million people employed to monitor and facilitate elections. Voting also lasted 44 days. During this period, current Prime Minister Modi, seeking a third term, supposedly participated in more than 200 public events and gave 80 interviews.
It would be easy to say that what we are witnessing is a celebration of democracy. But numbers can be deceiving.
For some years now, India has been witnessing a constant democratic crisis. Freedom of the media and press has been suppressed and there is little to talk about in terms of journalistic independence in the mainstream. Often dubbed the “Godi media” – a play on Modi’s name and the word for “lapdogs” – it is not uncommon for mainstream journalism to operate as an arm of the BJP’s propaganda machine. Critical journalists were also targeted by the PM’s staff, as well as federal economic and investigative agencies. In 2024, Reporters Without Borders declared that Indian media outlets were in an “unofficial state of emergency.” The rights of minority groups have also been systematically attacked. Punitive measures included arbitrary arrests and imprisonment, public floggings, and the demolition of homes, businesses, and places of worship.
All these measures helped the Hindu nationalists led by Modi become a hegemonic force in Indian politics long before the elections. However, in the run-up to these elections, they seemed unsure of their position. But why?
Commentators have noted that although no one doubts that Modi will win the elections, the jingoism surrounding him as a leader entering a third term has been noticeably weak. As the elections progressed, this was reflected in slightly low voter turnout. The BJP’s self-image as a “corruption killer” took a beating in late March when exposers of the Supreme Court-led Electoral Bonds scam – a highly secretive “election finance” program introduced by the Modi government in the India Finance Act 2017 – revealed that the BJP was its biggest beneficiary. The opposition classified the scheme as “the biggest extortion scheme in the world” run by the prime minister himself.
There also appears to be a lack of signature election issues to galvanize voters. Much-vaunted election promises such as the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya on top of the ruins of the Babri Masjid that was destroyed by a Hindu mob in 1992 and the revocation of the special constitutional status guaranteed to the state of Jammu and Kashmir have already been fulfilled. Attention has turned to “basic issues” and the ruling party’s performance on “economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction” has been less than stellar. Almost 800 million people remain dependent on government rations. The unemployment rate among young people aged 20 to 24 is around 50%. India today is also more unequal than it was under British colonial rule. Under Modi, the income and wealth shares of the richest 1% reached 22.6% and 40.1%, respectively. The income share of India’s richest 1% is now among the “highest in the world”, above South Africa, Brazil and the United States.
Nervous about how these issues would affect the ruling party’s electoral prospects, the government has been intransigent.
The ruling party, BJP, has more money than all other political parties combined. However, when the Congress, India’s largest opposition party, tried to attract small individual donations, the government weaponized the Income Tax Department and froze the party’s bank account. Tax authorities also confiscated $14 million from the party.
Former party chief Rahul Gandhi said the Congress was unable to campaign before the elections. “We cannot support our workers and our candidates and leaders cannot travel by plane or train,” he told reporters. “This is a criminal action against the Congress Party carried out by the Prime Minister and the Home Minister,” he added. “The idea that India is a democracy is a lie. There is no democracy in India today,”
Less than a month before the elections began, Delhi chief minister and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal was arrested by the federal financial crimes agency on “allegations of corruption” in relation to liquor policy from Delhi. Party members said this was a politically motivated move designed to stop him from campaigning. Senior AAP leader and Delhi finance leader Atishi said, “This was a way of stealing elections.”
The BJP also strove to remind the electorate of its “origin story” – namely its Islamophobic ethos and aspirations. Modi typically allows other members of the BJP cadre to engage in openly Islamophobic rhetoric, while he himself maintains the aura of a stoic spiritual leader. However, this time he felt the need to take on the mantle of Islamophobia. During the campaign, he regularly used communal language and called Muslims “infiltrators.” [with] large families.” Without any proof, Modi claimed that under the Congress government, Muslims “have the first right over resources”. He warned that the opposition party would gather all the wealth of Hindus and redistribute it among the “infiltrators”. Modi also warned Hindu women that the opposition party would take their gold and “redistribute it to Muslims”. During a public rally in Khargone, Madhya Pradesh, Modi also said that the Congress was committing “vote jihad” by uniting Muslims against him.
On June 4, Modi will likely be declared the winner. But a victory will not make the ruling party or its leader any less anxious about its dominance over Indian politics. As was the case before the elections, the BJP and Modi are likely to continue their efforts to further consolidate Hindu nationalist hegemony and dominance. Unfortunately, in a democracy already in decline, this would mean further repressive measures and possibly the suppression of all other avenues of protest and opposition to Hindu nationalist hegemony.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
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