Johannesburg, South Africa – Former president Jacob Zuma is emerging as the biggest winner of South Africa’s general elections as his new separatist party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK Party), appears poised to make big gains at the expense of the African National Congress , who governs the country.
With more than two-thirds of the votes counted on Friday night, MK appeared to be on the verge of taking power in KwaZulu Natal, leading comfortably in a province where the ANC has never lost since the first post-apartheid elections in 1994.
Nationally, as results came in, MK came in third place with approximately 12 percent of the vote, behind the ANC with around 42 percent of the vote and the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (23 percent). cent). The votes counted so far paint a clear picture that MK has won parts of the ANC’s traditional support in its strongholds.
In addition to KwaZulu Natal and the Western Cape – where the DA appeared poised to return to power with a clear majority – the ANC also suffered a drubbing in Gauteng province, where it also falls well short of winning a majority of its own.
Over the past two days, these trends have only solidified, and if they persist, the ANC will – for the first time in 30 years – have to appeal to some opposition parties to support it in a national coalition government if it wants to remain in power. power under President Cyril Ramaphosa. He will also have to do the same to stay in power in provinces like Gauteng.
These results signal the “death of ANC dominance”, said analyst Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh.
“I think this is good. There is as much hope as there should be fear. People are worried and uncertain about what will happen; it will open up new avenues for change and new avenues for accountability,” he said. Mpofu-Walsh said the defeat The ANC’s electoral campaign was a combination of arrogance and denial of its failures.
Independent political analyst Sandile Swana said the ANC joined other liberation movements that were punished for failing to deliver on their liberation promises. “Swapo in Namibia, Zanu PF in Zimbabwe and the ANC in South Africa are in exactly the same boat,” he said, referring to the parties that led the independence movements in Namibia and Zimbabwe respectively.
Imraan Buccus, an academic and researcher at the Auwal Socio-Economic Research Institute, said the election results point to the implosion of the ANC. “It is consistent with what happened to liberation movements across Africa. There are examples in Zambia and Kenya,” he said.
Buccusa said a combination of ANC failures and an uneven economy resulted in the election result.
According to the World Bank, 55 percent of South Africa’s population is considered to live in poverty. The ANC’s 30-year rule has been characterized by a rise in unemployment – currently at 33 percent. Systemic corruption and government inefficiency, which result in worse living conditions, are also among the problems faced by South Africans.
Populist politics
Early election projections suggest that although the ANC recorded a huge loss of support, other opposition parties were unable to capitalize on this situation.
As the results were consolidated, the DA showed marginal gains. Its leader, John Steenhuisen, told journalists on Friday that he was happy with the growth of his party. “Growth is growth,” he said when pressed about the slight increase in support for his party. He won 21 percent of the vote and seats in the 2019 election.
However, it is not just the ANC that appears to have lost voters to MK. The number of left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters has also fallen.
The MK Party attracted support across Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal, attracting voters in rural and urban areas, as well as in areas in Gauteng and Mpumalanga provinces.
Zuma, a supporter of the anti-apartheid movement who was removed from presidential office in 2018 amid a cloud of corruption allegations, is a popular figure among many South Africans and has relied on populist policies to attract votes.
During the election campaign, he attributed South Africa’s struggles to “white monopoly capital” and modeled his successor, Ramaphosa, as an “agent of capital”. He also criticized the ANC for its failures, without admitting that he was president of the party for 10 years and vice-president for many others. Zuma made bold promises to end unemployment and poverty.
He denied any wrongdoing and called himself a victim of the judiciary. The former president has a criminal record for contempt of court and was therefore arrested in July 2021.
Swana said Zuma’s scandals had not damaged his support. “Zuma managed to present himself as a victim persecuted by everyone,” he said.
ANC national president Gwede Manatshe admitted he was surprised by the MK Party’s performance in KwaZulu-Natal and admitted the ANC performed poorly in this year’s elections.
“MK is doing well in KZN; they surprised me a little bit,” he said.
Mantashe, however, attributed Zuma’s support to ethnic nationalism, arguing that Zuma appealed to the province’s Zulu population, with which he shares a tribal identity, to galvanize support.
But Swana said Zuma’s support goes beyond identity politics.
“Zuma is loved by the people of KwaZulu-Natal,” he said, attributing this to the role he played in negotiating an end to post-apartheid violence among the majority Zulu population in that province.
He pointed out how Zuma’s entry into the MK Party effectively fractured the ANC, with many other party leaders and supporters also crossing over to the former president’s new political home.
This internal division cost the ANC significantly, he said.
Zuma’s use of populist policies and rhetoric, and his success with that strategy, was in line with the global trend of support for populist leaders, Buccus said, citing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte as examples.
“In the context of the current failures of the ANC government, people are looking for alternatives,” he said. “We’ve seen examples like this all over the world.”
Who forms the next government?
Although the Electoral Commission is expected to announce the final results on Sunday, the ANC has already begun informal talks with potential coalition partners.
The ANC’s Mantashe said the party did not plan for this outcome, saying: “Coalitions are a consequence, you don’t plan for consequences.”
However, the MK Party ruled out a coalition with the ANC.
Other opposition parties remained silent on whether they would consider negotiations with the ANC, saying they would wait for final results to be announced first. According to the law, a president must be elected within 14 days of the proclamation of election results by the Electoral Commission.
Mpofu-Walsh said South Africa’s political terrain was expected to be “noisy and unstable”.
But he said the full consequences of the ANC’s declining support will be seen over time.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
