As India’s election results become clearer, with hundreds of millions of votes counted and leads solidifying in most of the country’s 543 seats, the biggest democratic exercise in the world – and in history – appears to have produced some big surprises.
As counting progressed on Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared likely to fall short of the 272-seat mark, which would mean a majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha, a lower house of the Parliament of India. With its allies, the BJP was still predicted to win a majority. The INDIA opposition alliance, led by the Congress Party, is projected to win more than 200 seats.
These numbers are in stark contrast to 2019, when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 353 seats, 303 of which were won by the BJP alone.
At the heart of this shift has been a series of political tremors that appear to have reshaped India’s political landscape.
Al Jazeera follows some of the biggest twists and turns as they unfold, from the vote count.
UP: A tight race in Varanasi and the rise of SP
Uttar Pradesh, a state ruled by the BJP since 2017, has a total of 80 parliamentary constituencies. Being the most populous state in India, with more than 240 million inhabitants, it is key to determining who governs in New Delhi. Furthermore, both Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi are contesting elections in different constituencies in the state.
In 2019, the NDA won 64 seats, of which the BJP alone won 62. The Congress won just one seat; the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won 10 and the Samajwadi Party (SP) won five.
But the 2024 outcome looks very different. At 4pm (10:30 GMT), the SP led with 33 seats, and the Congress in another seven – totaling 40 for the INDIA alliance.
The BJP, meanwhile, was leading in 36 seats, with its allies ahead in another three seats. Most surprisingly, the BJP was trailing in the Faizabad constituency, which is home to the Ram temple in Ayodhya, which Modi consecrated in January. The temple, built on the ruins of the Babri mosque that was demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992, was a centerpiece of the BJP campaign.
Political analyst and Hindi professor Apoorvanand told Al Jazeera that the SP and Congress worked wisely this time, adding that the chemistry between SP leader Akhilesh Yadav and Gandhi was stronger “and drilled downwards”.
Apart from securing its usual voter base – which consists of Muslims and the Yadav community – the SP has expanded to other marginalized communities, Apoorvanand said. He added that growing discontent with the BJP among those under 35 had also contributed, causing the party to lose influence in the northern state.
“I have been talking to youth from all parts of UP and they are angry with the BJP,” he added. He explained that this was due to the mismatch between the illusion of a utopia of a Hindu nation that the BJP tried to emphasize, even as the reality of rising unemployment hit voters.
“People asked themselves, ‘What’s the point of a whole utopia of a Hindu nation if they can’t live with dignity,’” he said.
In Modi’s constituency of Varanasi, Congress candidate Ajay Rai appears to have significantly eaten into the prime minister’s margin of victory in 2019. Modi won the seat by 500,000 votes in 2019; he led by about 150,000 votes at 4 p.m. On the other hand, Gandhi led in Rae Bareli, his electorate, by around 350 thousand votes.
In neighboring Amethi, BJP’s Smriti Irani was also significantly behind Congress’s Kishori Lal. In 2019, Irani conquered the Gandhi family stronghold, unseating Rahul Gandhi, who had held the position since 2014, by 55 thousand votes.
West Bengal: Trinamool holds its fort
The key eastern state is currently governed by the opposition party All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), commonly known as TMC, a reluctant member of the INDIA alliance.
The BJP made a significant improvement in the 2019 elections compared to 2014, winning 19 of West Bengal’s 42 parliamentary seats. The TMC won 22, while the Congress won two seats.
Before the count, exit polls predicted that the BJP could win the vast majority of seats in the state, reducing the TMC’s numbers.
But clues on Tuesday suggested that the BJP might struggle to replicate its 2019 performance. It was ahead in 12 seats, while the TMC led in 29. The Congress led in the remaining nine.
Kerala: How the BJP can break through its final frontier
The southern state has long been a bastion of the left – terrain where the BJP, with its Hindu-majority politics, has struggled to win.
That could change now. The party’s Suresh Gopi was leading by a large margin in the Thrissur constituency and could become the BJP’s first Lok Sabha MP from Kerala.
So how did the BJP do this? In part, says political analyst Apoorvanand, “by aligning and trying to collaborate with Islamophobic elements within Christian communities in Kerala.”
Hindus constitute 55 percent of the state’s population, followed by Muslims at 27 percent and Christians at 18 percent. Together, the two minority groups represent almost half – 45 percent – of the population, making them formidable forces in elections.
But in recent years, the BJP has – in addition to courting the Hindu vote – tried to win over sections of the Christian vote by presenting the state’s Muslims as a threat, its critics say.
Apoorvanand pointed to the “love jihad” conspiracy theory – which suggests that Muslim men are deliberately marrying women from Hindu and Christian communities to convert them to Islam. The conspiracy theory has been widely debunked. But, as Apoorvanand highlighted, “it originated from Kerala”, and some members of the Christian clergy expanded on it.
‘Politics of humiliation’: How the BJP lost the Maharashtra conspiracy
The BJP and its allies appeared to be on the verge of major losses in the western state of Maharashtra, with the Congress and its partners making important gains.
According to the latest vote count, in Maharashtra, the INDIAN opposition alliance – comprising the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Nationalist Congress Party (SP) – was ahead in 27 of the state’s 48 seats. Only the Congress was leading with 10 seats, while the BJP was leading with 14.
These results are not surprising, according to Apoorvanand, although exit polls predicted a big victory for the BJP and its allies in the state.
Apoorvanand attributed the result “to the way the BJP acted in the last five years, humiliating state parties and leaders”. He said the BJP’s “politics of humiliation” has generated discontent with the party among voters.
Traditionally, the BJP has partnered with the regional party Shiv Sena. But over the past five years, that alliance has collapsed and critics have accused the BJP of orchestrating a rift within the Shiv Sena.
“This was the last thing the people of Maharashtra could bear,” Apoorvanand said. “What we expect in Maharashtra applies to the rest of India, which is a kind of normality in politics.”
Karnataka: BJP bent, not broken
In 2019, the BJP won 25 of Karnataka’s 28 parliamentary constituencies, while two other NDA-affiliated candidates also won. The Congress won just one seat.
And although the Congress won the state legislature elections last year, exit polls predicted a repeat of the 2019 verdict, especially with the BJP also tying up with the regional Janata Dal (Secular) party.
However, the clues so far paint a very different picture. The BJP is still poised to emerge as the biggest winner, leading in 16 seats, with the JD(S) ahead in two constituencies. But the Congress leads in 10 constituencies.
“BJP’s stronghold still remains in coastal states like Mangalore [Mangaluru], where they have not lost any ground,” said Apoorvanand. The main lesson? “The BJP base is worn out, but it has not completely lost its influence,” he said.
Karnataka is crucial for the BJP. It is the only southern state where Modi’s party has won.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
