Two weeks since Trump’s guilty verdict in New York: what have we learned? | Donald Trump News

Washington DC – It’s been two weeks since Donald Trump became the first former president of the United States convicted on criminal charges. But polls show that the extraordinary verdict was largely met with resounding monotony.

On May 30, Trump was found guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in what prosecutors described as an attempt to conceal a secret payment to a porn star.

But experts say the public response to the verdict has been more of a tidal wave than a tidal wave — and that’s a reflection of the unique political moment the U.S. finds itself in.

Trump is seeking re-election in November and is in a tight race against current President Joe Biden. But his campaign was bolstered by strong support among Republicans, who largely united under his leadership.

Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, attributed the muted reaction after May’s historic verdict to the Republican Party — and the media — normalizing what should be remarkable.

“Never in over 230 years of American history have we had a former president, or even a major party presidential candidate, charged with a crime, much less convicted of multiple crimes,” Lichtman told Al Jazeera.

“This is an unprecedented cataclysmic event and, at least so far, it doesn’t appear to have much of an impact on people’s opinions of Donald Trump.”

‘Silence the money’ vs ‘scheme to defraud’

According to Lichtman, the moderate response was, in many ways, the culmination of Trump’s years-long effort to build a perception of both political impunity and persecution.

Trump boasted in 2016 that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in New York and still “not lose any voters”. He ultimately won that year’s presidential race.

Yet for years he has also promoted – without evidence – the claim that he is the target of a coordinated political “witch hunt” designed to keep him out of power.

Lichtman added that media coverage of the trial also contributed to the beige public reaction.

The trial, which took place in New York City, was based on the prosecution’s argument that Trump covered up the secret payment to protect his chances in the 2016 presidential election.

Trump denied the accusations. But prosecutors said he used illegal means to hide information from the American electorate.

The fact that the media referred to the trial as the “hush money” case contributed to the lack of outrage, Lichtman said. He believes the verdict would have resonated more if the media had framed the case as a matter of “fraud perpetrated against the American people.”

“Trump played the media like a violin,” Lichtman explained. “So let’s not forget that, virtually to one person, the entire Republican Party believed his lies that he was convicted by a rigged system in a sham trial.”

A litmus test for voters

That was a message that Trump and his campaign helped cement as the New York verdict approached.

At a press conference after being found guilty, the former president sought to directly link his conviction to the Biden administration, without providing evidence for the allegation.

“This is all done by Biden and his people,” Trump said at a news conference. “We are dealing with a corrupt government. We have a corrupt country.”

Shortly afterwards, he again raised the specter of political violence if he were arrested.

“I’m not sure the public would accept that,” Trump told Fox News. “You know, at a certain point, there’s a breaking point.”

Earlier this week, his campaign even sent an email titled “Haul out the Guillotine,” a reference to the French Revolution.

In turn, Biden – through campaign and White House communications – portrayed the conviction of proof of a healthy and impartial justice system.

The New York trial is far from the end of Trump’s legal troubles. He faces separate state and federal charges related to efforts to subvert his 2020 election loss to Biden, as well as a fourth charge in Florida for allegedly hoarding classified documents.

But none of the other cases are expected to be concluded before the Nov. 5 presidential race.

This means the New York trial offers the first – and perhaps only – litmus test of how a criminal conviction will be viewed by the nearly 160 million registered voters in the US.

Consequences silenced in research

Since the verdict, there is evidence that Trump’s strategy has helped energize his supporters. His campaign claimed to have raised $141 million in May, including two million small cash donations.

More than a third of those donations were made online in the 24 hours after the verdict, according to the Trump campaign, although official fundraising records for the period have not yet been released.

Then there was a series of polls that showed a largely ambivalent response to the prospect of electing a convicted criminal as president.

A Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted immediately after the verdict found that only 10% of registered Republicans reported that they were less likely to vote for Trump after his conviction.

However, 56 percent of Republicans said the case would have no effect on their vote. Another 35 percent indicated it would make them more likely to vote for Trump.

The impact of the verdict was most pronounced among independent voters, a coveted demographic in U.S. politics.

About 25 percent of independent voters surveyed said Trump’s conviction made them less likely to support him in November, compared with 18 percent who said they were more likely to vote for him.

However, the majority of the group – 56 percent – ​​said the conviction would have no impact on their decision.

Still, two weeks after the verdict, most major polls and forecasters show Biden and Trump neck and neck in the presidential race, although several leading organizations — including FiveThirtyEight and Morning Consult — have Biden ahead with a slight edge.

This week, CBS News and YouGov released another poll showing the candidates virtually tied in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

However, as before, the majority of voters surveyed said the New York conviction was not a factor in how they would vote in November.

Michael Fauntroy, founding director of the Race, Politics and Policy Center at George Mason University, told Al Jazeera that the cascade of post-verdict polls demonstrates one thing: “Trump was injured, but not mortally.”

Will public sentiment be reflected in the vote?

But there are still more than four months until the November 5th elections. This could help or hurt Trump.

Experts note that the public’s attention span is short – and other high-profile news has diverted focus from the New York verdict.

They include the conviction of Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, on charges that he lied on a federal firearms background check form. The verdict represents the first time the son of a sitting president has been found guilty of criminal charges.

The Trump campaign sought to present the conviction as evidence of what it calls the “Biden crime family.” But the verdict could also prove to be a double-edged sword, with some observers pointing out that the case could counteract Trump’s claim that the judiciary is corrupted by political bias.

After all, the Hunter Biden case was prosecuted by the Department of Justice, which is under the responsibility of the Biden White House. And the president ruled out pardoning his son.

Then there’s Trump’s next sentencing hearing on July 11. The severity of the sentence is expected to have an impact on voter opinion.

Fauntroy warned that the eventual sentencing could make Trump’s sentencing harsher and more difficult to navigate for his campaign.

“The ruling could very well accelerate Republican concern,” he said. “What if he is arrested? What if he gets house arrest? What if he gets 30 days of house arrest? What if he gets 1,000 hours of community service?”

Trump’s sentence, Fauntroy explained, “could potentially be very problematic for him.”

Even slight fluctuations in the polls could also spell trouble for Trump. Any drop in support could make a difference in an election that is expected to turn on a knife’s edge.

“It could have a small, immediate impact, but a big ultimate impact,” Fauntroy said, “if the number of Republicans who are repelled by this stays as it is now.”

And perhaps there is a bigger reason for the unrest hanging over the Trump camp, he added.

Several researches, including those conducted by Morning Consult and ABC News/Ipsos, concluded that the majority of Americans believe the guilty verdict was correct. Fauntroy explained that this shows a persistent vulnerability that could later be activated by Trump’s opponents.

“Right now, it’s a little negative for Trump,” Fauntroy said, “but potentially very bad going forward.”