A French “referendum” on the far right: Will Macron’s risky bet pay off? | Elections

President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call early parliamentary elections in response to his crushing defeat in the European Union elections is a risky gamble that few could have predicted, observers tell Al Jazeera, describing the early elections as a referendum on the far right.

Heeding a call from far-right candidate Jordan Bardella, whose National Rally party won 31.5 percent of the vote in Sunday’s European Parliament elections, Macron dissolved the French Parliament and ordered early elections.

The first round will be held on June 30th and the second on July 7th.

Analysts said it is a high-risk attempt to regain credibility after Macron’s liberal Renaissance party trailed the National Rally in second place with about half its level of support – just 14.6 percent.

According to Gilles Ivaldi, professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies, or Sciences Po, Macron expects his detractors’ votes to have no substance.

Voting for the National Rally and its firebrand leader, Marine Le Pen, has traditionally been a way of showing dissatisfaction with the government.

“Now Macron is telling voters: ‘We are playing for keeps,’” Ivaldi told Al Jazeera. “It’s not about expressing your discontent. It’s a question of whether you really want the far right to be in charge.”

Ivaldi, who studies populist and far-right parties at Sciences Po’s Center for Political Research, said Macron wants voters to think twice before voting at the National Rally when the far-right has a real chance of coming to power.

“He hopes that the fear of the far right will produce some important changes,” including the mobilization of moderate parties for a new majority, he said.

But the move, which has not been seen in French politics since 1997, has the potential to backfire.

The national rally not only tapped into discontent with Macron’s government, but also built support over the years around issues that are important to voters, including migration, security and the economy, Ivaldi said.

Le Pen challenged Macron in the second round of the last two presidential elections, in 2017 and 2022. Although Macron ultimately won both votes, his popularity declined while support for Le Pen grew from 34 to 41 percent.

Toluna Harris Interactive forecasts for Challenges, M6 and RTL predict that the early elections will result in the National Rally winning the most seats in the lower house of Parliament, but without an absolute majority.

Macron has promised to finish the remaining three years of his term as president, regardless of any outcome. Although he oversees defense and foreign policy, he could lose control of the domestic agenda to the National Rally.

This “cohabitation” – as the situation is known in political jargon – would give Le Pen’s Russian-leaning nationalist party the ability to set the tone on issues such as the rights of non-French citizens, aid to Ukraine and economic reforms. .

“It’s a gamble, clearly,” said Ivaldi. “No one saw this coming and no one knows what will result from the election.”

Rise of the far right

The far-right’s triumphs in the European Parliament elections shook governments across the EU, but nowhere was the defeat more painful than for the French head of state.

Macron’s liberal coalition government secured 13 of the 81 seats allocated to France in the European legislative body. The National Rally won 30 places.

The party’s popularity is nothing new. Since the mid-1980s, its electoral base has increased and, in the last two European elections, in 2014 and 2019, it led the polls in France.

This year, however, victory came by an unprecedented margin.

Sebastien Maillard, associate member of Chatham House, said National Rally’s strategy to soften its image has worked.

“It used to be an anti-Semitic party, but now it largely supports Israel,” Maillard told Al Jazeera.

He also abandoned his hostility towards the NATO alliance and the idea of ​​a Frexit – a French exit from the European Union. The party has also largely overcome the racist insults that characterized the leadership of founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father.

Above all, Maillard said, the party’s “normalization strategy” revolves around Bardella, a soft-spoken, 28-year-old political phenomenon who took over the leadership of the 2022 National Rally to allow Le Pen to prepare for the your next candidacy for office. The presidency.

With 1.2 million followers on TikTok, Bardella is attracting a younger audience to the party.

He successfully polished his image as the son of a poor family of Italian origin who grew up in the suburbs of Paris, but beat the odds and rose to the top of the political ladder.

While exuding humility and avoiding controversy, Bardella touts the party’s hard-line anti-immigration message, which prioritizes security and maintains “France for the French.”

If the National Rally wins a majority in parliament, he can be appointed prime minister.

According to some polls, he is among the politicians seen most favorably as Macron’s successor.

Le Pen has led the rebranding of the party, but the movement lacks “a clear program,” Maillard said.

“This is what Macron’s early election is all about, forcing the National Rally to talk about what they want so the French can see how dangerous it is.”

Dissolving parliament was the “nuclear” option, he added, but perhaps a necessary measure to quell growing discontent.

“The National Rally turned the EU elections into a referendum on Macron. Now Macron is turning early elections into a referendum on the far right.”