Why four lawsuits could spark a new crisis in Thai politics | News from the courts

EXPLAINER

Courts are scheduled to hear cases on Tuesday regarding Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, the Move Forward party, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Senate elections.

The future of Thailand’s prime minister, as well as that of his main opposition party, is expected to be decided this week in four key court rulings that risk triggering a new political crisis.

The courts are expected to announce decisions in four cases on Tuesday involving Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, the main opposition Move Forward party, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as well as on the electoral process for a new Senate.

Thailand’s politics have been marked for years by a struggle between its military-backed conservative-monarchist establishment and populist and reformist parties, such as those backed by Thaksin and Move Forward, which have led to mass protests and military coups.

“These cases highlight the fragility and complexity of Thailand’s political climate,” ANZ Research said in a note, warning of the potential for further protests.

What is the case with the Prime Minister?

Srettha Thavisin, who made her fortune in real estate before entering politics, became prime minister last August after Pita Limjaroenrat, who led Move Forward to victory in the May elections, was prevented from forming a government.

On Tuesday, he faces a decision – or potentially another hearing date – from the Constitutional Court on whether he violated the Constitution by appointing someone to his cabinet who had a previous conviction.

Srettha, who denies any wrongdoing, could be fired if the court rules against him.

If he is removed, then his ruling party, Pheu Thai, will have to propose a new candidate for prime minister and parliament will have to vote on his nomination.

What is the case against Move Forward?

A second case could lead to the dissolution of the reformist Move Forward party, which won the largest number of seats in last year’s elections, as well as the largest share of the vote.

The Constitutional Court is expected to announce its decision on an Electoral Commission complaint that alleges the party broke the law by campaigning for reform of the royal insult law.

Move Forward denies any wrongdoing.

The estate abandoned its calls for reform after the Constitutional Court ruled in January that the call amounted to an effort to overthrow the monarchy.

Its predecessor party, Future Forward, was also dissolved by court order after a strong performance in the 2019 elections.

And Thaksin?

Thaksin, the telecommunications tycoon who dominated Thai politics and who was ousted in a military coup in 2006, returned to Thailand last year after Srettha’s government took office.

On Tuesday, a Bangkok criminal court is expected to formally charge him with royal insult in connection with a press interview he gave in 2015.

The court will then decide whether or not to grant bail to Thaksin, who has said he is innocent. “This case has no merit whatsoever,” he told reporters earlier this month.

Thailand’s lese majeste law, one of the toughest in the world, provides for a maximum prison sentence of up to 15 years for each perceived insult.

The 74-year-old returned to Thailand for a rock star reception last August after 15 years of self-imposed exile.

And the senators?

The Constitutional Court will also make a decision on Tuesday on the ongoing selection of a new 200-member Senate, after accepting a petition questioning whether parts of the process, which took place over three consecutive weeks, were legal.

If the process is canceled or postponed, it would temporarily extend the term of military-appointed lawmakers who play a key role in government formation, including last year’s maneuver that blocked Move Forward.

The current Upper House was handpicked by the military following a 2014 coup that ousted an elected Pheu Thai government, led by Thaksin’s sister, who still lives in self-imposed exile.

The process of choosing the next Senate began on June 9th, with the third and final stage scheduled for June 23rd.