Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s threat to attack Cyprus has further increased tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, as the Lebanese Shiite group’s conflict with Israel continues to threaten to escalate into an all-out war.
Nasrallah said on Wednesday that Hezbollah did not want a full-blown war, but that it was ready – along with its regional allies – to respond to Israel’s growing aggression. The threat against Cyprus is the result of what Nasrallah said was the Israeli use of bases on the Eastern Mediterranean island.
“The Cypriot government must be warned that opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon means that the Cypriot government has become part of the war and resistance [Hezbollah] will deal with it as part of the war,” Nasrallah said.
Although the United Kingdom has two bases in Cyprus, there has been no officially recognized use by Israel of Cypriot land or air bases. Israel has used Cypriot airspace to conduct exercises in the past.
Nasrallah’s heightened rhetoric comes a day after Hezbollah published images it said were taken by one of its drones over the Israeli city of Haifa. The images, which Nasrallah said showed only a small portion of the images captured, appeared to be a warning to Israeli authorities about Hezbollah’s reach should Israel continue to threaten an expansion of its attacks into Lebanon.
Israel announced on Tuesday that operational plans for a military offensive on its northern neighbor had been “approved and validated”. More than 90,000 Israelis have fled their homes in the north of the country since hostilities with Hezbollah began on October 8, one day after the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. At least 90,000 people also fled their homes in southern Lebanon as a result of Israeli attacks.
‘No red lines were crossed’
Israel has assassinated several Hezbollah commanders, including, most recently, Taleb Abdallah, a senior commander who was killed last week. Hezbollah responded to the attack by firing more than 200 rockets – the most it has fired in a single day at Israel since October. Since then, Israel has continued its airstrikes in southern Lebanon, including the city of Tyr.
But despite this, and despite the rhetoric from both sides, there is a belief among observers that both sides are still largely adhering to the rules of engagement, with escalations occurring gradually.
“The intensity of hostilities has increased, but not their nature,” said Eyal Lurie-Pardes of the Middle East Institute. “No red lines were crossed. A rocket attack on Haifa, for example, would signal greater capability, thus constituting almost a red line [for Israel].”
“Hezbollah has said it will stop a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel only needs to deal with the displaced people from the north. Both are one miscalculation away from conflict.”
Diplomatic efforts continue. US envoy Amos Hochstein, who previously helped broker a maritime agreement between Lebanon and Israel, was recently in Beirut to try to ease border tensions, which could still attract other regional players.
“[Hochstein’s] The mission is limited by the need for a comprehensive agreement involving both Hamas and Hezbollah,” said Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University. “This need has not been fully recognized or addressed by either the American or the Israeli side, limiting the effectiveness of Hochstein’s efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability.”
Anxiety in Lebanon
Although an all-out conflict between Hezbollah and Israel can still be avoided, many Lebanese are increasingly concerned.
“The feeling in Lebanon is one of growing concern and anxiety about the possible outbreak of an all-out war,” Salamey said. “The approval of a war plan by the Israeli military is taken very seriously by the Lebanese people, leading to increased fears of escalation. This approval has significantly hampered tourism and investment plans in the country, as potential visitors and investors are reconsidering their decisions due to the growing threat of conflict.”
Lebanon has had one of the worst economic crises of the century and has been stuck in a political impasse without a president since October 2022. The country has lacked political and economic stability in recent years, even before the war. Infrastructure is overstretched and a full-blown war could have a devastating effect on the already struggling nation.
Lebanon is not in a position to respond effectively to an Israeli invasion or a broader air war on its infrastructure,” Salamey said. “Any significant expansion of the conflict would be devastating, as the destruction of infrastructure would be difficult to repair or replace. The Lebanese government lacks resources for reconstruction and there are few international donors willing to provide the necessary support, unlike what happened in the aftermath of the 2006 war.”
The further dissolution of the Lebanese state could also have serious repercussions for the region, Salamey said, adding that it “could exacerbate existing political and social tensions in Lebanon, making recovery even more challenging.”
“The destruction of Lebanon would produce a state of chaos with armed groups invading its territory, thus creating a much more unstable situation. [for the Israelis, too],” he said.
Israelis want answers
However, if Israel decides to continue engaging with Lebanon, its military and civilian infrastructure could also suffer serious damage. Hezbollah is significantly stronger and better equipped than Hamas and the group recently unveiled new weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles that drove Israeli military planes out of Lebanese airspace for the first time.
“What is particularly worrying and significant is that the Israelis appear to have learned absolutely nothing after their past experiences in Lebanon,” Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “The announcement they made yesterday that they are about to wage an all-out war that would annihilate Hezbollah is, at best, extraordinarily naive and, at worst, shows amateurism.”
“Hezbollah can inflict serious and significant and even unprecedented damage on Israel,” he added.
Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982, where it placed west Beirut under siege to expel Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). It occupied southern Lebanon from 1985 until 2000.
Although Israel’s military establishment appears to be aware of Hezbollah’s capabilities, many in Israel, including far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, are pushing for military solutions over diplomacy. Smotrich, in particular, even suggested the idea of reoccupying southern Lebanon, although Lurie-Pardes said that “only the extreme right/radical fringe… would want to conquer Lebanon”.
There is a widespread belief that Israel would need a ceasefire in Gaza to turn its full focus to Lebanon, but Lurie-Pardes said operating on two fronts is not outside the realm of possibility.
“Israel can deal with another front,” he said. “The human and financial cost would be immense, but they could do it.”
Inside Israel, political pressure is mounting on politicians as the school year approaches and northern residents want to return home. There is a growing opinion on the Israeli side of the border that they will not be able to live in safety while Hezbollah operates nearby.
“The public wants it both ways,” Lurie-Pardes said. “They want to feel safe in the North and they want to see military action that makes that happen.”
“People want to see this answered. However, they also understand that Hezbollah is more powerful than Hamas and has more complex weaponry.”
What is clear is that an expanded war will have few winners. Israel has struggled to achieve its stated goal of eradicating Hamas over the past eight months, and Hezbollah has far greater capabilities than the Palestinian group. And while Israel could cause serious damage to Lebanon, it could also lead to unforeseen long-term repercussions, as has happened in the past.
“In 1982, the Israelis wanted to end the PLO and they succeeded, but this led to the birth of Hezbollah – a much more radical and more organized movement than Fatah,” said Bitar. “The same scenario could happen again.”
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
