Somalia’s government is trying to slow the withdrawal of African peacekeepers and warning of a potential security vacuum, documents seen by Reuters news agency show, with neighboring countries concerned that resurgent fighters from the armed group Al -Shabab take power.
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), a peacekeeping force, is committed to withdrawing by December 31, when a new, smaller force is expected to replace it.
However, in a letter sent last month to the acting president of the African Union Peace and Security Council, the government asked to postpone until September the withdrawal of half of the 4,000 soldiers due to leave by the end of June. The letter has not been reported before.
The government had previously recommended – in a March joint assessment with the African Union (AU), reviewed by Reuters – that the overall withdrawal schedule be adjusted “based on the actual readiness and capabilities” of Somali forces.
The joint assessment, ordered by the United Nations Security Council, warned that “a hasty withdrawal of ATMIS personnel will contribute to a security vacuum.”
“I have never been so worried about the direction of my home country,” said Mursal Khalif, an independent member of the Somali Federal Parliament’s defense committee.
The European Union and the United States, the main funders of the AU force in Somalia, have sought to scale back the peacekeeping operation due to concerns about funding and long-term sustainability, four diplomatic sources and a senior Ugandan official said.
Negotiations over a new force proved complicated, with the AU initially pushing for a more robust mandate than Somalia wanted, three of the diplomatic sources said. A heated political dispute could lead Ethiopia to withdraw some of its most battle-experienced troops.
Somalia’s presidency and the prime minister’s office did not respond to requests for comment. National Security Advisor Hussein Sheikh-Ali said the request to delay the withdrawal this month was intended to align the drawdown with post-ATMIS mission planning.
“The notion that there is a ‘fear of al-Shabab resurgence’ is dramatized,” he said, after this story was published.
Mohamed El-Amine Souef, AU Special Representative to Somalia and head of ATMIS, said there is no definitive timetable for concluding negotiations, but that all parties are committed to an agreement that helps achieve sustainable peace and security. .
“The AU and the Somali government have emphasized the importance of a conditions-based drawdown to avoid any security vacuum,” he told Reuters.
The Peace and Security Council is due to meet on Somalia later on Thursday to discuss the withdrawal and the follow-up mission.
As the reduction continues, with the departure of 5,000 of the approximately 18,500 soldiers last year, the government projects confidence. It stated that the new force should not exceed 10,000 and should be limited to tasks such as protecting large population centers.
The call for a smaller force likely reflects the views of nationalists who oppose a strong foreign presence in Somalia, said Rashid Abdi, an analyst at Sahan Research, a Nairobi-based think tank focused on the Horn of Africa.
Concerned neighbors
Uganda and Kenya, which contributed troops to the departing mission, are also concerned.
Henry Okello Oryem, Uganda’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, said that despite intense training efforts, Somali troops were unable to sustain a long-term military confrontation.
“We don’t want to get into a runaway situation, the kind of thing we saw in Afghanistan,” he told Reuters.
Oryem said Kenya accepted the withdrawal requested by the US and EU, but that the concerns of countries with forces in Somalia should be heard.
Kenyan President William Ruto told journalists in Washington last month that a withdrawal that did not take into account conditions on the ground would mean that “terrorists will take control of Somalia”.
In response to questions, an EU spokesperson said it was focused on building internal security capabilities and supported, in principle, a Somali government proposal for a new mission that would be reduced in size and scope.
A US State Department spokesman said the force should be large enough to avoid a security vacuum. Washington supported all requests made by the AU to the UN Security Council to modify the drawdown schedule, the spokesperson said.
In response to a question about Ethiopian forces, the spokesperson said it was critical to avoid security gaps or unnecessary expenses “incurred by switching existing troop contributors.”
Setbacks
Two years ago, a military offensive in central Somalia initially confiscated large swaths of territory from al-Shabab.
In August, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared his intention to “eliminate” the powerful al-Qaeda branch within five months.
But a few days later, Al-Shabab counterattacked, retaking the town of Cowsweyne. They killed dozens of soldiers and beheaded several civilians accused of supporting the army, according to a soldier, an allied militiaman and a local resident.
“This broke the hearts of Somalis, but it gave courage to Al-Shabab,” said Ahmed Abdulle, a militiaman from a clan in central Somalia, in an interview in April.
The Somali government has never publicly provided the death toll from the Battle of Cowsweyne and did not respond to a request for a death toll estimate for this story.
“There were enough troops in Cowsweyne, more than a battalion, but they were not well organized,” said a soldier called Issa, who fought in the battle there last August.
Issa said car bombs exploded at the gates of the Cowsweyne military camp on the day of the attack, citing a lack of defensive outposts to protect the bases from such attacks.
Ten soldiers, militiamen from local clans and residents in areas targeted by the military campaign reported no military operations in the past two months, following additional setbacks on the battlefield.
Reuters was unable to independently establish the extent of territorial losses to Al-Shabab. National Security Advisor Hussein Sheikh-Ali said on X this week that the army has retained most of its gains.
The withdrawal of peacekeeping forces could make it more difficult to maintain territory. Although analysts estimate that Somalia’s army has around 32,000 soldiers, the government acknowledged, in the assessment with the AU, a shortage of around 11,000 trained personnel due to the “high operational tempo” and “attrition”.
The government has said its soldiers are capable of confronting al-Shabab with limited external support.
Somalia has already defied grim predictions and expanded its security forces in recent years.
Residents of the coastal capital Mogadishu – whose ubiquitous blast walls bear witness to the threat of al-Shabab suicide bombers and mortars – say security has improved. Once-quiet streets are bustling with traffic and upscale restaurants and supermarkets are opening.
An assessment published in April by the United States Military Academy’s Counterterrorism Center said an Afghanistan-like collapse was unlikely, helped by continued external support.
The United States, for example, has about 450 troops in Somalia to train and advise local forces, and carries out regular drone strikes against suspected militants.
But the assessment’s author, Paul D Williams, professor of international affairs at George Washington University, said the armed group’s estimated 7,000-12,000 fighters would nevertheless be “slightly stronger militarily” than Somali forces due to superior cohesion. and the use of force.
International support
Somalia’s security has been guaranteed by foreign resources since the 2006 invasion of Ethiopia, toppling the administration and galvanizing an insurgency that has since killed tens of thousands of people.
The US has spent more than $2.5 billion on “counterterrorism” assistance since 2007, according to a study last year by Brown University. That number does not include undisclosed military and intelligence spending on activities such as drone strikes and U.S. ground troop deployments.
The EU says it has provided about $2.8 billion to ATMIS and its predecessor since 2007. Turkey, Qatar and other Middle Eastern countries also provide security assistance.
But resources are under pressure. The EU, which pays the majority of ATMIS’s roughly $100 million annual budget, is shifting to bilateral support with the aim of reducing its overall contributions in the medium term, four diplomatic sources said.
Two diplomats interviewed by Reuters, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the private negotiations, said the US and EU want to scale back peacekeeping operations due to competing spending priorities, including Ukraine and Gaza, and a sense of that Somalia should take responsibility for its own security.
Some European countries would like to see the new mission financed through statutory contributions from UN member states, which would increase the financial burden on the US and China, the four diplomatic sources said.
The US State Department spokesman said the US does not believe such a system could be implemented until next year, but said there was a strong international consensus to support the follow-on mission.
The EU did not address questions about financing the replacement mission.
Funding for the new mission can only be formally addressed once Somalia and the AU reach agreement on the proposed size and mandate.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
