United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed growing concern over the escalating war of words and deadly border clashes between Israel’s military and Lebanon’s Hezbollah fighters.
UN peacekeepers are working to calm the situation and avoid “miscalculations” after both sides increased their rhetoric and raised the possibility of a full-scale conflict, he said on Friday.
“A hasty move – a miscalculation – could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond the border and, frankly, beyond imagination,” Guterres told journalists. “Let us be clear: the people of the region and the people of the world cannot allow Lebanon to become another Gaza.”
A UN peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, as well as unarmed technical observers known as UNTSO, have long been stationed in southern Lebanon to monitor hostilities along the demarcation line between Lebanon and Israel, known as the Blue Line.
“UN peacekeeping forces are on the ground working to de-escalate tensions and help avoid miscalculations,” Guterres said. “The world must say it loud and clear: immediate de-escalation is not only possible but essential. There is no military solution.”
Hezbollah has fired rockets and drones at Israel since launching the war in Gaza last October, with the Israelis responding with deadly airstrikes and heavy artillery fire. Hundreds of people have been killed and tens of thousands of people displaced along the border.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant have previously committed to “turning Beirut into Gaza”. This week, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned of “no restrictions and no rules” if Israel launches a major attack on Lebanon.
‘Israelis will pay a huge price’
Analysts say it remains unclear whether both sides are increasing their threats as a deterrent or whether they are truly on the brink of all-out war. In terms of Israel’s war against Gaza, one expert said it is not correct to compare Palestinian armed groups with Lebanese Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah is better trained, more organized and has even more lethal weapons compared to the Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas. And for this reason, I think the Israelis will pay a huge price for something they can avoid,” Hassan Barari, professor of international affairs at Qatar University, told Al Jazeera.
Orna Mizrahi, a former official at Israel’s National Security Council, said neither option is good for the country.
“But the big question is: how much can Israel suffer under this attack? I think most of the government doesn’t really want to go to war, but we may be getting there,” she said.
In Lebanon, Nasrallah’s comments left many prepared for a wider war. But some diplomats and analysts said his threats were an attempt to match Israel’s growing rhetoric.
Israel cannot allow the terrorist organization Hezbollah to continue attacking its territory and its citizens, and we will soon take the necessary decisions. The free world must unconditionally support Israel in its war against the axis of evil led by Iran and extremist Islam. Our…
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“For me, this is part of a deterrence strategy,” said Hubert Faustmann, professor of history and international relations at the University of Nicosia.
“There is a great danger that Israel will escalate the confrontation with Hezbollah and a full-scale, total war, which I don’t think Hezbollah wants,” Faustmann added, saying that Hezbollah is demonstrating what “it could do” if that were to happen.
Hezbollah has indicated that it is not seeking a broader conflict, although it has consistently used more powerful weaponry.
Although Israel has the most powerful army in the Middle East, Hezbollah has thousands of fighters, many of them with experience in the Syrian civil war, and an arsenal of tens of thousands of missiles capable of hitting cities across Israel.
It also has a large fleet of drones, one of which appears to have carried out an extended flight over the port city of Haifa this week, highlighting the potential threat to key economic infrastructure, including energy systems.
‘Tough order for Israeli air defenses’
There are fears that a wider escalation could overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, which has so far intercepted most of the hundreds of missiles fired by Hezbollah.
“My sense is that Hezbollah feels it has some influence over the Israelis, because an escalating war – no matter how much damage it might cause in Lebanon and Syria – would create terror in Israel,” said Seth G Jones, an analyst at the Center for Studies Strategic and International in Washington, DC.
“It would be a difficult task for Israeli air defenses to confront the large arsenal of rockets coming from the north. It would be a big problem.”
Israel has had bruising experiences in Lebanon in the past. After their forces invaded in 1982, they were trapped in a buffer zone for nearly two decades following a war that saw the birth of Hezbollah. There was a second 34-day war in 2006 that bled both sides.
But political pressure on Netanyahu has increased with no indication of when life will return to normal, more than eight months after the conflict began.
Dozens of Israeli cities are deserted, with around 60,000 people evacuated to temporary housing, leaving empty streets with occasional buildings pockmarked by rocket fire. Around 90,000 also fled southern Lebanon.
Sarit Zehavi – a former Israeli military intelligence officer who runs a think tank specializing in Israel’s northern border – said that after the trauma Israel suffered on October 7, few of those who left their homes would be ready to return as long as Hezbollah remained. entrenched along the border. .
“For 17 years, we did nothing against the threat and now dealing with it will cost a huge price,” Zehavi said.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
