Kenyan President William Ruto on Wednesday night reversed the controversial tax reforms he had championed in the face of public opposition, after mass protests turned violent the day before, leaving 23 people dead, according to the National Commission. of Kenya for Human Rights.
“The people have spoken,” Ruto said at a press conference at around 4:30 pm local time (1:30 pm GMT), just 24 hours before protesters promised to return to the streets. “I admit.”
The admission of defeat was rare for a politician who was not known for backing down, and represented a sharp turnaround from his speech less than a day earlier, when, in the wake of the violence, he adopted a firm, almost threatening stance toward protesters. . He accused “treacherous” individuals of trying to “undermine security and stability.” The president also deployed the military against protesters, an unusually arbitrary move, experts said.
Ruto’s reversal on Wednesday has led to questions about what changed his mind, analysts said – even as a cloud hangs over his credibility two years after he came to power promising an end to corruption and to bad governance.
“I don’t believe it’s genuine, I think he’s just biding his time,” Willis Okumu, a senior researcher at the pan-African think tank Institute for Security Studies (ISS), told Al Jazeera. “I think he was warned that this is politically damaging and most likely Western pressure played a role. He needed to steady the ship after making a mistake.”
A hardliner loved by the West
Ruto’s tough messages on security in his speech on Tuesday drew criticism from the Kenyan National Human Rights Commission, which called it “insensitive” and “inciting”, and alleged that it fueled the killing of people in a Nairobi suburb. , hours after the protesters were dispersed by police fire.
Experts also said this statement signaled Ruto’s disconnection from the Kenyan population. It underlined the image that Ruto has long had in Kenya as someone who is inflexible but who enjoys legitimacy from the West, especially the United States, despite a long history of alleged involvement in electoral violence.
Some of these allegations led the International Criminal Court to investigate Ruto for crimes against humanity. These charges were dropped in 2016 due to lack of evidence.
“For those of us who have known him for a long time, we know that Ruto is a hard-line leader,” ISS’s Okumu said. “We were always surprised that the West embraced it. They know who he is, but because he leads Western interests, they look away.”
Since his election in 2022, Ruto has moved closer to Western powers, positioning himself as progressive on climate change and refusing to join most African nations in their open condemnation of Israel for the war in Gaza, professing instead a more neutral position.
For the US in particular, Ruto has emerged as the most viable East African leader to support, someone whose loyalty deserves support, in a region where Washington’s relations with President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda are strained.
On Tuesday, a team of Kenyan police leading a United Nations-backed mission landed in troubled Haiti, following Ruto’s dogged pursuit of a unique deal for the African country. This mission is largely supported and financed by the US.
Previously, in May, US President Joe Biden feted Ruto and First Lady Rachel Ruto at a lavish state dinner – a first for an African leader in 16 years. Biden then granted Kenya the title of “non-major NATO ally” – an important move that is expected to reinforce already close security cooperation with Nairobi. The US formally incorporated that designation on Monday.
‘Zakayo’ Ruto
But domestically, Ruto has faced increasing criticism, culminating in the mass protests that have rocked Kenya over the past 10 days. Anger over the president’s tax collection strategies has long been simmering, especially among young Kenyans.
Ruto has a new nickname – “Zakayo”, a reference to the biblical corrupt Zacchaeus, the chief tax collector of Jericho. Many accuse Ruto of failing to fulfill election promises to eradicate corruption.
In fact, during his campaign for office, the former vice president painted himself as an outsider to the power matrix that had long been a pillar of Kenyan politics, where a handful of politically influential families controlled power. He claimed to be a “drug lord” and promised to alleviate the difficult living conditions of people on low incomes by cracking down on the deep-rooted corruption that has weakened Kenya’s institutions. He also promised to reform a police force long criticized for brutality, limit government waste and free the country from its massive $82 billion in debt.
However, Ruto’s detractors say he has not lived up to these claims. What angered many in particular, they say, were the frequent increases in taxes without corresponding improvements in social amenities. A 2023 law has already doubled fuel taxes, and this year’s initial draft finance law was set to increase that fuel tax even further.
All of this comes amid a bitter economic crisis that has seen the value of the Kenyan shilling fall 22 percent against the US dollar since 2022, causing food, transport and energy prices to soar, while incomes have remained virtually unchanged. same.
Ruto initially justified the tax increases by saying they were necessary for Kenya’s debts. His government took office amid a severe drought in 2022 and after the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted food imports.
“It is instructive that for every 100 shillings we collect as tax, we pay 61 shillings in debt,” Ruto said on Wednesday, justifying why he supported the tax reforms.
However, critics have long argued that massive waste of public spending could offset debts. Ruto is widely seen in Kenya as a jet-setter – critics call him the “flying president”. Although this trip caused him some difficulties, he argued that his visits abroad were necessary to attract investment to the cash-strapped country.
Detractors also accuse the president of favoring Western-led institutions such as the International Monetary Fund. The IMF supported Nairobi on now-rejected fiscal reforms, as part of a lending mechanism it said was necessary to “preserve debt sustainability”. In April, the IMF said there was a significant shortfall in tax collection that would keep Kenya’s domestic financing needs high – although it also highlighted the need to reduce government waste.
Did Western pressure force Ruto’s hand?
The anti-tax protests, which initially began in 2023 after the first tax increase, signify a major change in a Kenya where previously most people accepted the government’s inadequacies, experts said.
“The reason there were so many young people on the streets is that they say things as they see them,” said Nanjala Nyabola, a political researcher and writer. “Older Kenyans are used to the gap between what politicians promise and what they deliver. But young people won’t accept that.”
As protests grew last week, Ruto initially tried to strike a cooperative tone, affirming the government’s respect for the right to protest.
On Tuesday, however, after police opened fire on protesters, the image he sought to present seemed to be falling apart with Kenya’s Western allies.
— US Embassy Nairobi (@USEmbassyKenya) June 25, 2024
“We note that Kenya’s constitution guarantees the right to peaceful protest,” said a joint statement from the embassies of the US, UK, Germany and several other Western countries. “We regret the tragic loss of life and injuries suffered, including the use of live fire… and are deeply concerned about allegations of kidnappings of protesters.”
This reaction, experts say, appears to have pressured the Ruto government to act with more restraint, and likely led to its softer tone on Wednesday, where it called protesters “our sons and daughters”. In addition to the reversal, Ruto also announced cuts to government spending on travel and hospitality.
Still, some analysts said they have little faith that Ruto will deliver on his promises.
“I don’t think he will implement them,” said ISS’s Willis. “He has been president for two years and has not fulfilled anything he promised.”
And despite the setback, it will not be easy for Ruto to resurrect his credibility with the Kenyan people, said Nyabola, the political writer.
Ruto’s new stance “definitely addresses many of the grievances raised by protesters, but unfortunately he has lost a lot of legitimacy”, she said.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
