Johannesburg, South Africa – Almost a month after historic national elections, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority for the first time, forcing it to form a coalition to govern South Africa, an impasse stemming from the allocation of cabinet positions that threatened to overthrow the entire Chamber of Deputies. cards.
Tense negotiations, particularly between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA), the two largest parties in the coalition, led to delays this week in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement of his cabinet in the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Fears grew and markets reacted badly to the news that DA leader John Steenhuisen was threatening to withdraw from the coalition, amid leaks of letters between the leaders of the two parties, showing them at odds.
But on Friday, when Ramaphosa was due to meet Steenhuisen, the political exchange that has characterized the last two weeks of talks showed signs of an imminent agreement.
The rand – which fell amid news of discord – strengthened following indications that a cabinet announcement was pending and that the government would include the market-friendly and right-wing prosecutor’s office.
Political analyst Khaya Sithole said markets were in favor of the DA being part of the GNU – a multi-party coalition – because the party was unlikely to demand radical changes in economic policy.
“A GNU with the DA gives the perception that there will be continuity in economic policy because the ANC will maintain the trajectory it was on,” Sithole told Al Jazeera.
He said the DA – which holds 87 parliamentary seats compared to the ANC’s 159 – would neither demand new policies nor have enough political strength to bring about radical change.
“Markets are believing in the continuation of government policies and programs,” said Sithole, adding that “an ANC partnership with the DA does not change the script.”
He said markets reacted negatively to fears that the DA might leave the GNU because the alternative – a possible alliance between the ANC, the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and other smaller parties – represented uncertainty.
Leaked letters
Negotiations between the GNU parties over cabinet positions were marked by a flurry of meetings and correspondence between Ramaphosa and party leaders.
During the talks, the DA’s demands for specific powerful ministerial positions led to a stern warning from Ramaphosa in a letter, released to the media, that “the DA has put at risk the foundation of the creation of a Government of National Unity by moving the goal posts.”
The AD began negotiations with a long list of demands that included 11 cabinet minister positions, a dozen deputy minister positions – including the deputy finance post – and other changes to governance legislation.
The party first demanded the position of vice-president, but relented when ANC negotiators backed down.
The ANC called the DA’s initial demands “outrageous” and sought to negotiate with other parties for support.
A subsequent meeting between Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen appeared to have resolved differences and calmed tensions.
However, after agreeing to six cabinet positions, the prosecutor took action.
Steenhuisen – in a letter to Ramaphosa – threatened to withdraw from his coalition agreement if Ramaphosa did not grant the party eight ministerial posts.
“On a purely proportional basis, in a Cabinet of 30, the AD’s share of support within the GNU translates into nine positions instead of the six that are currently on the table. Likewise, we cannot see the point in reducing the number of DA deputy ministries to just four,” Steenhuisen said in a letter to Ramaphosa dated 24 June.
Ramaphosa responded in a hard-line fashion, making the DA a take-it-or-leave-it offer after refusing to increase the number of positions offered to the DA.
“I must inform you that we continue to have discussions with other parties about the portfolios they could occupy as we seek to finalize the GNU agreement. I need to inform you that the task of establishing a government is very urgent, as we cannot continue with this paralysis”, wrote Ramaphosa in a letter dated 25 June that was released to the media.
The DA has 21 percent electoral support, compared to the ANC’s 40 percent. The other parties that signed a declaration of intent represent 8.5 percent of the combined electoral support.
‘Almost ready’
On Friday, reports citing DA representatives said the party was still committed to reaching an agreement with Ramaphosa.
However, Fikile Mbalula, the secretary general of the ANC, published in X that the parties were “almost finished with the GNU discussions… It will be done as promised”.
Good morning, South Africa almost finished discussions on GNU, in the best interests of all South Africans. It will be done as promised.
— ANC SECRETARY GENERAL | Fikile Mbalula (@MbalulaFikile) June 28, 2024
Also on Friday, Ramaphosa announced that the opening of the new parliament would take place on 18 July.
The 71-year-old leader was re-elected for a second full term following the ANC’s unprecedented loss of support in the May 29 elections – the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994 that the party won less than a 50 percent majority.
Subsequently, the ANC chose to form a coalition government. But they decided not to form a large firm coalition with the DA and opened negotiations with the smaller parties represented in the government to be part of the GNU.
The GNU now comprises 10 parties, including the nationalist Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the right-wing populist Patriotic Alliance (PA) and the Pan-African Congress (PAC), among others.
Political analyst and commentator Lukhona Mnguni said the DA’s demands proved that their participation in government alongside the ANC remained “an absolute gamble for them”.
“They want enough isolation from the ANC and they want to prove that they have enough isolation from the ANC,” Mnguni told Al Jazeera.
He said the AD fears being swallowed up by the ANC in the GNU and wants to assert itself despite the ANC having twice the support they have.
“The fight is about their political interest as political parties and how that affects their position in the 2029 elections,” he said.
‘Anxieties’ and divergent interests
Mnguni said the back and forth gave an indication of the “anxieties” the DA had about being part of government with the ANC and other smaller parties.
Although the DA preferred a grand coalition with the ANC to co-govern the country, the ANC insisted on bringing the smaller parties into a unity government.
Following their list of demands, ANC leaders accused the DA of negotiating in bad faith and backed down on all fronts.
“The ANC’s actions show vulnerability and assertiveness. The two can be a dangerous combination because they can create a stalemate,” Mnguni noted.
During a final series of talks between Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen, the latter insisted that the DA be assigned to the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition.
This ministry is critical in developing economic policy and oversees government transformation efforts as well as efforts to break up monopolies.
The DA, a largely white-led party, does not support all of the ANC’s black empowerment programs.
The party’s demand for a commercial and industrial position raised the ire of ANC leaders, who insisted that the DA was overreaching in negotiations.
Mnguni said the DA sought to ensure it had influence in the executive.
“Both parties could back down,” he said when asked about the possibility of the prosecution abandoning GNU.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
