In late May, reports emerged that tens of thousands of Rohingya were forced to flee their homes in Buthidaung and Maungdaw counties in northern Rakhine state.
The United Nations said it had collected witness statements about the killings of Rohingya civilians and the systematic burning of homes. He indicated that these crimes began after the Myanmar military withdrew from these municipalities and the advance of the rebel Arakan Army (AA).
If AA is proven responsible, it would not bode well for the future of the Rohingya community. As a major force in the Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of rebel forces fighting against the Myanmar junta, the AA has made considerable advances in Rakhine State. If the rebels prevail, the AA will have significant influence over the region’s affairs, including any decisions regarding the repatriation of Rohingya refugees.
Involvement in atrocities against the Rohingya would mean that the AA’s rhetoric about defending the rights of this Muslim community is not valid. This is why the international community needs to take action if it wants to see the Rohingya refugee crisis resolved.
A story of tensions
Since Burma (formerly the name of Myanmar) gained independence from Britain in 1948, various ethnic groups have sought territorial independence or increased regional autonomy, challenging the dominance of the Bamar ethnic group in governing the country.
The seizure of power by the military in 1962 intensified the persecution against these groups, provoking armed resistance. Today, despite being labeled “separatists” or “insurgent groups” by the military junta, these groups are leading a fight against the junta that is widely seen as a “fight for democracy.”
AA was created in April 2009 in the border area between Myanmar and China. It was overwhelmingly supported by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which trained the first AA recruits in Kachin State.
The stated aim of the AA was “the struggle for national liberation and the restoration of the sovereignty of Arakan to the people of Arakan”.
Before 2017, the Rohingya and the AA did not have a comfortable relationship, let alone close ties. Although both have occasionally faced atrocities and repressions by Myanmar security forces under the guise of counterinsurgency operations, they have rarely collaborated.
The Rohingya harbored significant distrust towards the AA, mainly due to the religious divide between Muslims and Buddhists in Rakhine State. Predominantly Muslim, the Rohingya see the largely Buddhist AA as part of the dominant Bamar community. This association led some Rohingya I interviewed to accuse the AA of involvement in the Myanmar army’s 2017 genocidal campaign.
The AA, for its part, has largely accepted the Myanmar government’s narrative that the Rohingya are migrants and do not belong to the country.
Post-coup rhetoric
In 2021, the Myanmar military once again seized power through a coup d’état, triggering widespread protests and a massive mobilization of armed resistance forces. The Three Brotherhoods Alliance, formed in 2019, allied with the civilian Government of National Unity (NUG) and has become the largest rebel force challenging the junta. It is fighting side by side with the Popular Defense Force (PDF), the armed wing of the NUG.
In October 2023, the alliance launched Operation 1027 and rapidly advanced against the Myanmar military in several states.
Seeking international legitimacy and support from local communities, the AA has attempted to appeal to the Rohingya, stating that it recognizes the human and citizenship rights of all residents of Rakhine State. However, even before the May attacks, previous statements by some of its leaders cast a shadow of doubt on this rhetoric.
In a 2022 interview with Asia Times, AA leader Major General Twan Mrat Naing said: “We recognize the human rights and citizenship rights of all residents of Arakan (Rakhine), but a massive repatriation of refugees in the current situation could trigger a new wave of unrest.”
He also raised questions about Rohingya identity, saying that “An important issue for most Arakanese would also be the name with which the refugees would like to be identified. ‘Rohingya’ is not a term that most Arakanese accept. They find it offensive because they feel it deprives them of their story.”
Such statements reveal that the AA leadership has not renounced the narrative that the Rohingya are “illegal Bengali migrants”.
The junta sought to exploit inter-communal tensions between the Rohingya and Buddhist Rakhine. It engaged in forced recruitment among the Rohingya and pressured communities to organize anti-AA demonstrations. Rohingya recruits have been used to attack Buddhist communities, fueling anger.
According to one report, the attacks in late May were revenge by the AA for the Rohingya’s alleged involvement in similar attacks in April against Buddhist communities.
Guaranteeing the rights of the Rohingya
Many believe that if the military dictatorship falls and democracy resumes, the Rohingya will be allowed to return to their homes as Myanmar embarks on building an inclusive society.
While I recognize that there have been some positive changes within the pro-democracy political leadership, under the current circumstances, I remain skeptical about their ability and willingness to carry out the repatriation of the Rohingya.
The NUG has recognized Rohingya identity and has already appointed a notable Rohingya activist, U Aung Kyaw Moe, as deputy minister in its Ministry of Human Rights. But it seems to me that these actions are just showboating and aim to secure international support and recognition for the NUG.
Furthermore, armed groups like the AA will inevitably play a significant role in managing the situation in Rakhine State. His positive rhetoric towards the Rohingya is even less convincing given the latest reports of attacks on the community.
Recognizing these realities, leaders of the Rohingya diaspora call on the Rohingya people, “to unite and form their own force capable of joining the federal army and the People’s Defense Force (PDF)… to begin meaningful political dialogues with the AA, the National Unity Government (NUG) and other ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to ensure recognition of the Rohingya ethnicity and federal rights.”
If the international community wants to resolve the Rohingya refugee crisis, then it too must play its role.
It should condition its support and recognition of the NUG on strict guarantees of repatriation of Rohingya refugees residing in Bangladesh and elsewhere. It should also demand that the NUG leadership negotiate with the AA and ensure the safety of the Rohingya currently living in Rakhine State.
In the current situation, unless there is consistent external pressure, prospects for Rohingya repatriation remain bleak.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
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