The study concludes that factors such as disease will lead to many more indirect deaths in the long term, even if the war stops now.
The cumulative effects of Israel’s war in Gaza could mean the true death toll could reach more than 186,000 people, according to a study published in the journal Lancet.
According to the Gaza Health Ministry, more than 38,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched its military offensive on October 7, following deadly Hamas attacks.
O to study stressed that the death toll is higher because the official toll does not take into account thousands of dead buried under the rubble and indirect deaths due to the destruction of health facilities, food distribution systems and other public infrastructure.
Conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harms of violence, the study says, and even if the war in Gaza ends immediately, it will continue to cause many indirect deaths in the coming months and years through illnesses and diseases.
The study states that the death toll is expected to be much higher, given that much of Gaza’s infrastructure has been destroyed; there are shortages of food, water and shelter; and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees saw its funding cut.
“In recent conflicts, these indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths,” he said.
After applying a “conservative estimate” of four indirect deaths for one direct death, “it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable” to the Gaza war, the study concluded.
Such a number would represent almost 8 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population of 2.3 million.
The Lancet study noted that Israeli intelligence services, the UN and the World Health Organization agree that allegations of fabricated data made against Palestinian authorities in Gaza about their death toll are “implausible”.
He stressed that the number of victims is likely much higher because the destruction of infrastructure in Gaza has made it extremely difficult to maintain a count that is not lower than the actual death toll.
“Documenting the true scale is crucial to ensuring historical accountability and recognizing the full cost of war. It is also a legal requirement,” he said.
The study found that the International Court of Justice said in interim rulings in January, in a genocide case brought against Israel, that it needs to “take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence relating to allegations of acts” under the Genocide. . Convention.
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