On Saturday, the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a campaign rally left the former president bloodied but not seriously injured, an audience member and the shooter dead, and two other spectators seriously injured.
A few hours later, in a brief press conference, President Joe Biden condemned the shooting and expressed sympathy for his opponent, calling him “Donald”, in a rare break in the animosity between the two men.
Leading political figures and experts from across the political spectrum also immediately expressed concern for Trump and the other victims and condemned this act of political violence.
On the other hand, many people on social media quickly embraced conspiracy theories. Trump’s detractors speculated that the shooting was staged, while his supporters suspected a left-wing attack, even after the FBI identified the deceased shooter as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, apparently a registered Republican.
Skepticism on both sides of the political spectrum represents the deep political divisions that exist in the United States. Both presidential campaigns will undoubtedly seek to make the most of the incident in the coming days. But in their pursuit of political gains, both parties must not ignore a major escalation in political violence that needs to be addressed urgently.
A reboot of the presidential race
Trump emerged triumphant from the incident. As security officers escorted him off the stage, he raised his fist defiantly as his supporters chanted “USA, USA!” The former president is enjoying all the public and media attention.
Shifting the spotlight to Trump is, ironically, what the Biden campaign also wants. The focus on the incumbent’s fitness for the role and cognitive abilities eroded his support.
The hope now is that all the attention given to Trump will highlight his extremism, legal problems and his party’s far-right agenda, detailed in the extensive Project 2025 plan, from which he has tried, unsuccessfully, to distance himself. Democrats believe that could encourage undecided voters to turn away from him.
Although Trump was the victim of this assassination attempt, he is the candidate who has been associated with encouraging political violence: from the storming of the Capitol by his supporters during the January 6th insurrection to the mockery of the near-fatal attack on his husband of Nancy Pelosi by a gavel-wielding intruder trying to kidnap the congresswoman.
Notably, the former House speaker was one of the first political figures to comment on Trump’s shooting, posting on X that “as someone whose family has been a victim of political violence, I know firsthand that political violence of any kind has no place in our society.”
While Biden’s campaign enjoys a break from media scrutiny of the president’s cognitive abilities, Trump – emboldened by the incident – heads to the Republican National Convention, where his nomination will be confirmed. He will likely use this stage to capitalize on the assassination attempt as much as possible.
Polarization and violence
The shooting fits well with the narrative that Trump was deprived of his second term, attacked and victimized. Since his re-election bid in 2020, he has presented himself as a target of the Biden administration, making baseless allegations of “election interference” and painting all lawsuits filed against him as political persecution.
Trump even promoted the narrative that the 2022 FBI raid of his Mar-a-Lago residence to recover classified documents was an attempt by the feds to assassinate him.
Trump’s base has reacted quickly to any act that could harm him. For example, after his conviction on criminal charges by a New York jury in May, his supporters called for attacks on jurors, the death of the judge, and riots.
Journalists present at the scene of the rally shooting on Saturday reported threats and insults from the crowd immediately after the incident. An Axios reporter even witnessed some Trump supporters trying to break into the media area before being stopped by security.
So far, Trump has chosen to moderate his rhetoric. He called for unity and “not allowing evil to win”. Given that he thrives on conspiracy theories and polarizing messages, it remains to be seen whether he will discourage his base from engaging in them after the shooting.
Trump has the opportunity to put the country’s peace and security ahead of his personal ambition. Perhaps coming so close to death will change his perspective on how to incite his supporters.
Otherwise, Saturday’s shooting could be the beginning of a very dangerous period for America. We saw his supporters engage in mass violence on January 6th because of imaginary oppression. And there were other actors, such as right-wing organizations like the Proud Boys, who engaged in political violence and several individual fanatics who carried out mass shootings and other attacks.
The spread of conspiracy theories and apocalyptic rhetoric within the right has encouraged such violent acts. The assassination attempt could add fuel to the fire of violent radicalism.
That’s why it’s crucial that Trump and his Republican allies, as well as Biden and the Democrats, confront the growing polarization in the country. Political violence must not become a staple of American politics.
Saturday’s shooting was a tragedy that was just inches away from becoming one of the darkest days in American history. It was also a turning point for this year’s presidential race and the nature of our politics. Both the current and former presidents have the opportunity to stem this escalation of tensions in American society and help ensure that peace and decency prevail in American politics.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
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