Washington DC – Eight gunshots transformed the elections in the United States, throwing an already unprecedented race into even greater uncertainty.
On Sunday, a day after the attack on candidate Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, details continued to emerge, as did the first hints of how the violent act would affect political discourse, campaigning and voter attitudes across the U.S. in the days leading up to the November election. 8 poll.
But for US political strategist Rina Shah, one thing became clear in the immediate aftermath of the attack: “No matter what happens, everything changes from here on out.”
This will be particularly evident, she said, at the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Republicans will gather starting Monday to begin the official process of nominating Trump as their candidate.
The event will begin just two days after the gunman, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, opened fire from a nearby rooftop, outside the Secret Service security perimeter, at the Trump rally.
A bullet hit Trump in the right ear, causing panic on the crowded stage. Others hit spectators, killing one man and injuring two others.
“I can say this shocks the conscience,” Shah said during a television interview with Al Jazeera. “We have less than 120 days and this resets everything.”
Calls for unity face accusations and blame
Indeed, the attack rally – in which Trump became the 13th US president or presidential candidate to face an assassination attempt, and the eighth to survive – was quickly met with calls from elected lawmakers for a reset of the polarization that has come to define the modern USA. policy.
US President Joe Biden called the violence “sickening” before calling his opponent on Saturday night. He said “everyone must condemn” the attack.
On Sunday, Trump, in a break from the often caustic rhetoric that had previously defined his campaign, said: “It is more important than ever that we stand together.”
Experts on political violence say it is imperative that leaders continue to lower the temperature to avoid further violence or retributive attacks.
Speaking to Al Jazeera in a television interview after the attack, Colin P Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group, a security consultancy firm, said the violence of the demonstration “sums up” the current extremes of US democracy.
Recent studies have shown that while Americans are less ideologically polarized than they realize, they are increasingly “emotionally polarized,” meaning they “nurture strong antipathy toward members of the other party,” according to an analysis published last year by Rachel Kleinfeld. , senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Several studies have demonstrated an increase in threats against elected officials It is public office holders in recent years, increasing after Trump supporters stormed the US capital in an effort to overturn Biden’s January 6, 2021, election victory.
Meanwhile, a June poll at the University of Chicago found that nearly 7% of respondents said the use of force was justified to restore Trump to the presidency. Another 10 percent said force would be justified to “stop Trump from becoming president.”
Security analyst Clarke added that while the violence at Trump’s rally could be a unifying moment for Americans, “it is likely to be divisive.” He predicted a “very dangerous political season.”
His words have since proven prescient, with a number of Republicans, including Trump’s potential vice-president pick, Senator J.D. Vance, pinning the blame for the attack on Biden. Vance said Biden’s rhetoric portrayed Trump as “an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs.”
At least one Republican lawmaker has delved into the conspiracy theory, with U.S. Rep. Mike Collins of Georgia baselessly calling on authorities to arrest Biden for “inciting murder.”
Political collision
As political observers wait to see whether the shooting will actually inflame or calm US political polarization, nearly all analysts who spoke to Al Jazeera agreed that Trump is likely to receive a boost in support in the wake of the attack.
This will be driven by the timing of the incident, just before the RNC, with Trump’s team saying he will still attend.
It will also be driven by the images and narrative that emerged from the attack.
“The iconic photo of Trump standing with his fist in the air, blood running down the side of his head and the flag hanging perfectly above him is really driving the narrative,” James Davis, a Republican strategist, told Al Jazeera.
“He will be viewed sympathetically after this in the national narrative,” he said.
He will never stop fighting to save America pic.twitter.com/qT4Vd0sVTm
– Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) July 13, 2024
Even a slight increase in support could make a difference in a race that will be decided by razor-thin margins. Trump and Biden are hoping to win over a small group of swing voters in some key states while eliminating voters who normally don’t go to the polls.
Trump has largely weathered his historic May conviction on charges related to hush-money payments made to an adult film star, although some polls have shown some softening among swing voters. Biden, however, has faced growing calls from within his own party to step aside as concerns about his age grow.
Still, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released last week showed Biden slightly leading Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump with slight leads in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
Specter of more violence
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Arshad Hasan, a Democratic strategist, also acknowledged that Trump is likely to win in the wake of the attack, especially with the Biden campaign promising to halt communications and ads critical of Trump for 48 hours out of respect.
While Hasan said it was wise for Democrats to focus on “humanity” in the wake of the attack, they should also continue to make calls for greater gun control, which Biden had already made central to his presidency. “The time to talk about gun violence is whenever there is gun violence,” he said.
The political strategist said he was attending a conference of the party’s progressive wing when the attack occurred. He saw shockwaves run through the crowd of attendees, many of whom would spend the next few months of the election on various campaign trails and at events similar to Trump’s rally.
In addition to Trump’s attack, the 2011 shooting of Representative Gabby Giffords at a constituent event and the 2017 attack on members of Congress playing baseball in Alexandria, Virginia, are still fresh in many people’s minds, he added.
The campaign season, Hasan said, will likely be defined by this specter of fear.
“There are hundreds of people running for Congress, for the Senate, thousands of people running for state legislature. And then there are all the issues that people are advocating for,” he said.
While the attack triggered a reassessment of campaign security for high-profile candidates, most people running for election do so with little or no security.
“There is a fear that violence will breed more violence,” Hasan said.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
