When Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban broke away from the rest of the European Union to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on July 5, he presented himself as a peacemaker.
“The number of countries that can talk to both sides in the conflict is decreasing,” Orbán said, referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine, which he visited on July 2.
“Hungary is slowly becoming the only country in Europe that can talk to everyone,” he added, referring to Russia’s diplomatic and economic isolation from Europe since it launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
In assuming the six-month rotating presidency of the European Council of Leaders, Orban sought the prestige of a mediator, analysts told Al Jazeera.
“The prospects for peace are so tempting that everyone wants to claim victory and say ‘I brought peace to Europe,’” said Victoria Vdovychenko, director of the security studies program at the Center for Defense Strategies of Ukraine, a think tank. .
“Talking to Putin and Putin actually listening – everyone wants that too, because Putin only listens to himself,” Vdovychenko told Al Jazeera.
Apparently, Putin listened.
When Orban embarked on his trip, the Kremlin considered it inconsequential.
“We don’t expect anything,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on July 2 when Orban visited Kiev.
Three days later, when Orban spoke to Putin in Moscow, the tone was different.
“We look at it very, very positively. We believe it can be very useful,” Peskov told journalists.
‘Talking to Trump is a new step’
Orban then left for Beijing to speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on July 8, an unannounced leg of the trip, before attending the 75th NATO summit in Washington, DC, last week.
He met with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Florida. Trump “will figure this out,” he reportedly said on July 11.
Last year, Trump boasted that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of becoming president, an approach that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as “very dangerous.”
“Donald Trump, I invite you to Ukraine, to Kiev. If we can stop the war for 24 hours, I think that will be enough,” Zelenskyy said in an interview in January.
“Talking with Trump is a new step and Orban thinks like a very pragmatic businessman,” Vdovychenko said. “What’s [his] interest? A fantastic maneuver, bringing together all the autocratic regimes and bringing them to Trump.”
Did Orban achieve anything? He seemed to think so.
In a leaked letter to European Council President Charles Michel, Orban said Putin was “ready to consider any proposal for a ceasefire that does not serve the hidden relocation and reorganization of Ukrainian forces.”
Both Russia and Ukraine rejected the idea of a ceasefire, saying it would give the other side time to regroup.
European reactions to Orban’s peace initiative have been unequivocally critical.
“This is about appeasement. This is not about peace,” said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, said Orban “did not represent the EU in any way.”
Orban’s antics are not new. He is the only EU leader who does not allow weapons destined for Ukraine to transit through his territory. He and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer were the only EU leaders to visit Moscow since the invasion.
Last year, he was the only European leader to participate in Beijing’s tenth anniversary celebration of his Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure-building program.
Now, EU member states say they will not participate in a peace summit that Orbán plans to hold on August 28 and 29, holding their own separate meeting.
A country that holds the rotating EU presidency has never been snubbed like this before.
European officials told the Financial Times that private proposals have been put forward to boycott all ministerial meetings during Hungary’s presidency, or to withdraw Hungary’s presidency altogether – an unprecedented move.
Hungary-EU cracks
Orban appears to thrive in confrontation.
Last December, he was the only EU leader to oppose issuing an invitation to Ukraine to open accession negotiations. The other 26 EU leaders overcame their veto, in part, by offering to unfreeze 10 billion euros ($11 billion) in EU subsidies.
In February, Orbán opposed the promise of 50 billion euros ($55 billion) in financial aid to Ukraine over four years. He relented in a deal whose details were not revealed.
Then, in March, Sweden became NATO’s 32nd member, after overcoming a single Hungarian veto.
“There was considerable pressure within [the alliance] this made it clear that his opinion would not be taken seriously if it was just an obstructive opinion,” Benjamin Tallis, an international relations expert at the Center for Liberal Modernity, a Berlin think tank, told Al Jazeera.
The EU rules by consensus and Hungary’s exceptionalism has angered many people.
The European Commission’s legal service said Orban’s peace proposals violate EU treaties that prohibit “any measure that could compromise the achievement of the Union’s objectives.”
In January, the European Parliament condemned Orban’s December veto and called on the Council of government leaders to investigate Hungary for “serious and persistent violations of EU values.”
This could have led to the suspension of Hungary’s voting and veto rights, but Europe initiated such a process, known as Article 7, against Hungary in 2018 and failed, because the system requires unanimity in the Council. Poland supported Hungary then and it is thought that Slovakia or the Netherlands would do so now.
“He did not sufficiently read the riot act in a way that would provide a long-term deterrent. He doesn’t think we’re serious,” Tallis said.
Like many supporters of Ukraine in Europe, Tallis believes Orban is using the EU presidency to disrupt European values.
“Orbán has made it clear that he does not support Ukraine’s victory. If Ukraine does not win, it will also help undermine European liberal democracy, because it creates a gray zone right in the heart of European geopolitics, which will continually be used against us,” said Tallis.
Tallis believes the time has come to adopt a firmer approach: the EU needs to think about re-freezing aid from Brussels that was released last December and forcing Hungary to choose a side.
“We haven’t made the Hungarian people put pressure on Orbán yet, because we haven’t made him choose between the benefits they get from living under a corrupt regime that is funneling EU money to them. [and] paying any of the debts of democracy,” he said.
“They chose Orban four times. They were clear. If there is a chance that we could be kicked out of the EU, that we could get limited NATO membership rather than full membership, then I think that starts to change the equation.”
He added: “A break needs to happen.”
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
