Near Oman’s mountainous capital, Muscat, a rare act of violence last week shook a peaceful country largely devoid of even petty crime.
There were gunshots and shouts of “Oh, God!” were heard on July 15 in Wadi Kabir, a district east of Muscat, when three armed men entered the Imam Ali Mosque.
Congregants were gathered for a major religious event for Shia Muslims. But the event ended with five people dead – four Pakistani citizens and a police officer – and at least 30 others injured, according to authorities in Oman and Pakistan.
In a country known for “exceptional” religious tolerance and a long tradition of coexistence, the real goal could have been Oman’s stability, especially given its role as a regional mediator, analysts say.
Shortly afterwards, ISIL (ISIS) claimed responsibility for the attack – the first ever operation in the Gulf nation.
But experts said it was unclear whether the attack was actually carried out by ISIL. More than a week after the attack, the group has presented no evidence except a video of the three alleged bombers – believed to be brothers – pledging allegiance to the ISIL leader.
With the region and the world focused on Israel’s brutal war in Gaza, ISIL – whether or not it was behind the attack – may be trying to stay relevant by widening sectarian divisions, especially in places where there are virtually none. , analysts suggest.
Sowing discord to divert
“Of course [ISIL] it depends on a strategy of taking responsibility for attacks even when there was no real involvement, with the aim of inciting chaos and sectarian conflicts,” Faozi Algoidi, a researcher at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.
“By assuming responsibility for incidents that may originally be accidental or socially motivated, the organization highlights the sectarian and terrorist nature of these events, bringing the issue of sectarian conflict back to the forefront.”
ISIL’s aim may be to show that the organization is still active and capable of attacking anywhere, to stir up fear and increase sectarian tensions in places of security and peace, such as Oman, he added.
This may have been why the attack occurred on the occasion of Ashura, one of the holiest times of the year for Shia Muslims, according to Andreas Krieg, a professor at King’s College London and CEO of MENA Analytica, a political risk firm focused on MENA.
“That’s exactly what [ISIL] I wanted to achieve… polarize sectarian dialogue and discourse in a very tolerant and inclusive country, and also across the region,” Krieg told Al Jazeera. “They were looking for an iconic moment where they could make an impact.”
The attack also likely occurred at this time because armed groups perceive that the region’s intelligence agencies are more focused on Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, analysts say.
“This moment suggests a strategic choice on the part [ISIL] to exploit perceived vulnerabilities,” Harley Lippman, a consultant at the USAID Partnership for Peace Fund focused on peace efforts in the Middle East, told Al Jazeera.
The attack in Oman follows similar acts in Russia and Iran. In March, the group claimed to be behind an attack that killed more than 140 people at a concert hall near Moscow, and in January it claimed responsibility for two explosions in Kerman that killed nearly 100.
The number of operations claimed by ISIL this year compared to last year has doubled, further indicating a hidden agenda to divert attention in the region from the situation in Gaza, Algoidi said.
Why Oman?
In addition to its stability, Oman may have been singled out for the attack because of its role as a frequent regional mediator, analysts say.
In the conflict in Yemen, in particular, Oman has tried to bridge the gap between the Iran-aligned Houthi group and the Saudi Arabia-backed government. “The fact that the Omanis are trying to create cohesion and consensus in Yemen and trying to resolve the conflict is something that [ISIL] disagrees,” Krieg said. “They need the conflict in Yemen to thrive.”
Oman’s ties to Iran may also have embittered the group. ISIL views Tehran as an “archenemy,” Krieg added.
An existing ISIL network in Oman is highly unlikely, Krieg said, and the incident points to the work of a cell with ties to Yemen. The group’s cellular structure means that “lone wolf” groups linked to ISIL can launch operations even without being members of ISIL itself, he explained.
He believes this is a unique, isolated event and not a resurgence of the group – at least not in the Gulf region. “This can literally happen in any country. This could happen in the UK,” said Krieg.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
