Tehran, Iran – Iran claims to have shot down three quadcopters launched within its territory and reports say there were explosions at some military sites in Syria – taken as indications that Israel responded to Iranian missile and drone attacks on its soil last week.
Iran said it shot down the quadcopters in the central province of Isfahan, where there are military bases as well as the country’s main nuclear facility in Natanz.
However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran’s nuclear facilities remained untouched.
For several hours, there were contradictory reports, as the United States claimed there had been an Israeli missile attack, while Iran claimed there were no missiles, just a few small boats that were shot down, and Israel said nothing.
Sharpening the rhetoric
This came a day after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would respond in kind if Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, adding that it may also change its stance on nuclear bombs.
On Thursday, Brigadier General Ahmad Haghtalab, head of the IRGC Nuclear Command, established after sabotage attacks on nuclear facilities blamed on Israel, said Tehran has identified Israeli nuclear facilities and has “fingers on the trigger” to launch another major attack. .
The IAEA can confirm that there is no damage #Willnuclear installations. DG @rafaelmgrossi continues to call for extreme restraint from everyone and reiterates that nuclear installations should never be the target of military conflicts. The IAEA is monitoring the situation very closely. pic.twitter.com/4F7pAlNjWM
— IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency (@iaeaorg) April 19, 2024
He also suggested that it would be “likely and imaginable” that Iran would reconsider pursuing a nuclear weapon if its nuclear facilities were targeted.
Iran’s attack last week was a well-telegraphed and almost entirely avoided retaliation for Israel’s alleged bombing of the Iranian consular building in Syria, which killed seven members of the IRGC, including two generals.
The operations “exceeded expectations,” the IRGC said, as some ballistic missiles pierced layers of defenses set up by Israel and its allies.
Before the Israeli attacks on Friday morning, Iran had strengthened its defenses, including at nuclear facilities.
On Sunday, the Iranian government told the IAEA that all nuclear facilities subject to inspection would be closed for a day for “security considerations,” IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told reporters the next day.
Friday’s attack occurred near Natanz, and Israel has already successfully launched high-profile sabotage attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities, but would it go so far as to launch a direct attack on an Iranian nuclear facility?
At least under the current circumstances, the answer is probably no.
Would an attack on nuclear installations even be possible?
On the one hand, there are tactical military considerations.
Israel would likely have to carry out such an attack alone, as the US, which helped repel Iran’s attack, has warned that it will not actively participate in an attack on Iran and demonstrated this on Friday.
This followed strict warnings from Tehran to Washington to remain clear – messages delivered publicly and officially.
Shortly after Iran’s attack on Israel, Tehran took the unprecedented step of summoning the Swiss envoy – the representative of Washington’s political interests in Iran – not to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as is the norm, but to the IRGC, to warn against any attack.
In the absence of US military support, Israel would be alone in trying to penetrate layers of Iranian air defenses to reach underground facilities or those buried deep in the mountains.
In Natanz, where Iran’s main nuclear facilities are located, satellite images show progress in the construction of a new underground facility that could house uranium enrichment rooms and other facilities.
At about 100 meters (328 feet) below ground, it is so deep that even the US-made bunker-busting bombs that Israel has used in Gaza with devastating effect are unlikely to be able to damage it.
Iran’s nuclear program and attempts to limit it
Israel says the world must do everything possible to ensure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon and has even promised direct military action to prevent that from happening.
Iran has always stated that it is not looking for a nuclear bomb.
It intensified its nuclear activity from 2018, after the US unilaterally abandoned the 2015 nuclear agreement – now in tatters – with world powers that limited Iranian uranium enrichment to 3.67% in exchange for sanctions relief.
Construction of the new site at Natanz began in response to a sabotage attack in 2020. In 2021, Iran raised uranium enrichment to 60 percent, days after a sabotage attack on Natanz that Tehran blamed on Israel.
The IAEA says Iran has the materials needed for several bombs but, based on inspections, has not begun production of any bombs. The IAEA said in its latest quarterly report that Iran has slightly slowed the pace of its 60 percent enrichment since the end of last year.
A direct Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would contradict Israel’s rhetoric about Iran’s nuclear capabilities, in that it would only push Iran towards a more drastic course of action, which could include reconsidering a bomb and withdrawing from the Treaty of Nuclear Non-Proliferation.
Even in a scenario in which Israeli jet fighters manage to break through Iranian air defenses to reach Natanz or another top nuclear facility – which could also entail an environmental disaster – there is no guarantee of what they will achieve.
Iran has made progress in its nuclear research and development since the US withdrawal in 2018 – a body of knowledge that cannot be destroyed by bombs or the assassination of individual scientists or project managers.
Serious and unpredictable ramifications
An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would be a de facto declaration of war, as it would constitute a full-fledged military attack on one of Iran’s most valuable state facilities.
This new level of escalation would be even greater than the leveling of Iran’s consulate in Syria, which constitutes an unprecedented violation of international law that appeared to initiate the current cycle of attack and response.
Not only would it force Iran to set up a even stronger military responsebut it would also likely lead the “axis of resistance” of Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen to the highest level of action against Israel since the start of the devastating war in Gaza.
Facing growing international condemnation of the war in Gaza, Israeli authorities would also find it extremely difficult to justify a direct attack on Iran, especially its nuclear facilities, at the UN, which would test the limits of “firm” support from its Western allies.
This while the Israeli army is already overwhelmed by the combined strain of its military campaign in Gaza and border fighting with Hezbollah.
It also remains to be seen whether the attacks will be aimed exclusively at Israel, as Tehran has repeatedly warned that it would also hold the US, and any regional countries that cooperate with Israel, responsible for any major attacks by Israel.
This would expose the entire region and beyond to significantly expanded military conflict, or even all-out war.
This story originally appeared on Aljazeera.com read the full story
