When the first criminal case against a former American president began, only 13% nationwide felt donald trump is being treated the same as other criminal defendants, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds. Most of the country was divided over whether he is being treated harsher (34%) or more leniently (34%) than other defendants.
The poll, which began a few days after the jury selection phase of the trial began on April 15, reveals that only 44% of Americans express confidence that the jury selected in the case will be able to reach a fair verdict, while 56% are more skeptical about it. a fair outcome is in the cards. More people consider Trump’s behavior during the trial so far to be more inappropriate (42%) than appropriate (25%), with about a third saying they haven’t heard enough to say.
These assessments of how things are playing out in court come as a growing share of Americans say the charges in the ongoing trial — relating to the alleged falsification of business records to hide secret payments to an adult film actress, Stormy Daniels, before the 2016 election – are irrelevant to his fitness for president, even if they are true (45% say this now, compared with 39% last summer, before he became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee).
About three-quarters of voters currently support Trump against the president Joe Biden in the 2024 election say they will stand with him even if he is convicted of a crime, while 24% of Trump supporters say a conviction could lead them to reconsider their support. Trump is accused in four separate cases, and the survey question asked about having been convicted of a crime without specifying the charge. The group that may reconsider represents about 12% of all registered voters on the ballot, more than enough to make a difference in a tight race if he is convicted in any of the four trials he could face between now and election day.
It’s difficult to predict the political impact of a possible conviction, but an analysis of the characteristics of Trump supporters who say they might reconsider offers some insights. They tend to be younger than other Trump supporters (64% are under 50, compared to 37% of those who would not reconsider), they are less likely to be white (49% are people of color, compared to 17% of those who would not). reconsider), are more likely to report being Biden voters in 2020 (20% of them say they supported Biden in 2020 versus 6% of those who would not reconsider) and are more likely to acknowledge that Biden legitimately won enough votes to win the presidency four years ago. years (63% versus 22% among those who would not reconsider). They are also more likely to be political independents (49% vs. 31%) and ideologically moderate (50% vs. 38%).
In short, they tend to be members of groups that normally lean Democratic, but where Biden has underperformed in early polls in a confrontation with Trump. Trump supporters who might reconsider, however, are not necessarily guaranteed to support Biden if Trump is convicted: Asked in a separate question at the start of the poll whether they would consider supporting Biden, 81% of Trump supporters who say they might reconsider their choice if he is convicted say there is no chance of voting for the current president.
More generally, most Americans continue to say that the allegations in each of the four cases against Trump cast at least some doubt on his fitness for the presidency, if they are true. Pluralities of more than 4 in 10 overall say that, if true, the allegations related to Trump’s role in the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol (47%) and efforts to overturn the 2020 election (44 %) should disqualify him from the presidency entirely.
But opinions about the relevance of the cases to Trump’s fitness for office appear to be changing somewhat. Along with the increase in the percentage that accusations of silence are not relevant to his suitability for president, there has been a small increase in the percentage that accusations related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election and those related to confidential documents found in Trump’s house are irrelevant to his fitness for the presidency if they prove true (37% now say each of these sets of accusations is not relevant, up from 33% last summer).
The shift in these three cases occurs primarily between independents who lean toward the Republican Party and those who lean toward neither party. Partisans’ impressions of the importance of each case to Trump’s fitness for president are largely entrenched, and independents who lean Democratic have shifted only slightly. Considering the accusations of silence, about three-quarters of Republicans say they are irrelevant now, roughly the same level as last summer, and among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, it remains relatively stable at around 13%. But among independents who lean Republican, the percentage who consider these accusations not relevant to Trump’s fitness rose from 57% to 73%, and the percentage of true independents who say the same rose from 29% to 45%.
Given the current trial, most Americans feel that Trump acted at least unethically, but few are convinced that his actions were criminal: About a third say that Trump’s actions related to his business records relatively These hush money payments were illegal (33%), with another 33% considering it unethical but not illegal. Only 12% of the total say he did nothing wrong in the case. About 1 in 5, 21%, say they are not sure.
These views are similar to how Americans felt about the case shortly after the charges were announced last spring, when 37% said Trump’s actions regarding payments to Stormy Daniels were illegal, 33% unethical, and 10% that he did nothing wrong.
A look at the partisan divisions in the Trump trial
Opinions about the trial and its possible outcome are divided along party lines, although independents are notably verified in the trial itself.
Most Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say Trump is being treated more leniently than other defendants by the criminal justice system (61%), while Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say he is be treated more severely than others (67%). Independents who lean toward neither party tend to view their treatment as more lenient (27%) than harsh (15%).
The lack of confidence in the selected jury to reach a fair verdict is most profound among Republicans and Republican-leaning Americans (37% say they have no confidence at all), but even among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Americans, 40% say have little or no confidence. confidence in the jury’s ability to reach a fair verdict.
A large majority of Democratic-aligned Americans say Trump’s behavior during the trial so far has been inappropriate (72%), although Republicans have not come to his defense. Just 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say Trump’s conduct was appropriate, with 15% saying it was inappropriate and 39% saying they didn’t hear enough to say.
Overall, about half of all Americans (49%) say they are following news about the trial very or somewhat closely, with Democratic-aligned Americans the most likely to be following it closely (58%), followed by Republican-aligned adults (46%). %) and independents who do not lean towards either of the less attentive sides (35%).
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS April 18-23 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults drawn from a probability-based panel. Surveys were conducted online or over the phone with a live interviewer. The results from the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy and Ed Wu contributed to this story.
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