Arizona and Pennsylvania voters think Biden will handle abortion issues better than Trump

Despite the president Joe Biden Catholicly complicated relationship with abortion, the charged issue may just be his best opportunity to win back the swing states – and the White House.

Abortion was the only one of three issues in a New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College poll that voters in all six identified swing states said they would trust Biden to handle more than the former president and presumptive Republican candidate. donald trump.

Trump led Biden in five of the six: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada. Voters still said they favored the current president over the previous one on abortion by 20 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 11 points in Arizona – two states where Biden came closest to catching Trump.

Experts and voters USA TODAY spoke to in both states said talking about reproductive rights could very well give the president’s re-election campaign a boost between now and November.

However, they emphasized that one problem will not solve everything.

Voters in all six states trusted Trump most in his handling of the economy and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, according to the poll.

“There is no doubt that (abortion) is a significant mobilizing force for Pennsylvania voters, especially women,” said Steve McGovern, a political science professor at Haverford College in southeastern Pennsylvania.

“Unfortunately,” he continued, “it’s one of the few forces working in Biden’s favor.”

Democrats lead and Republicans fight against abortion

University of Arizona political science professor Samara Klar said she is not surprised that Biden’s stance on abortion is resonating with Arizona voters.

In the recent poll, 64% of Arizona voters said they think abortion should always or almost always be legal, and 14% said it is the most important issue for their vote this year.

“And that’s a problem for Republicans,” Klar said. “Republicans are trying to get this out of the headlines as much as they can.”

Democrats saw a surge in wins during the 2022 midterm elections, months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Wade and decades of national precedent on abortion. Biden’s campaign hopes to recreate such victories in 2024, including in places like Florida, where abortion is explicitly on the November ballot.

Biden, a devout Catholic, is personally opposed to abortion and has in the past politically opposed the procedure, once saying the Supreme Court went too far in Roe v. Wade. But now, as the country’s top Democrat, Biden has spoken out in support of the right to choose abortion.

Pennsylvania State Senator Dan Laughlin, a Republican who represents Erie County, has been urging his party to rethink its stance on abortion.

Laughlin also personally opposes abortion, but supports Democrats’ efforts to codify Roe v. Wade provisions. Wade.

“The overturning of Roe v. Wade was almost the Holy Grail, so to speak, of the Republican Party for 50 years. For the pro-life movement, it was something intangible to them. And so when they were successful, I don’t think that many of them had thought about what it would be like beyond that.

“The political reaction has opened many eyes about where the country really stands,” he added.

Although Laughlin has been highly critical of Trump, he believes the former president can still win Pennsylvania and retake the White House despite the abortion issue.

While he has touted his role in overturning Roe by nominating several conservative justices to the Supreme Court, Trump has backed away from supporting a national ban, saying last month that the issue should be left to the states.

Many Republicans are having to do an about-face to keep up with increased public support for abortion rights, Klar said.

“In Arizona, this could cost Republicans the election,” she said. “And they know this and they are trying to figure out how to deal with this problem.”

Still, abortion may not be enough for Biden

Linda James, a longtime Democrat and resident of Johnstown, Pennsylvania, said she is concerned that the messaging on abortion is not enough and that she thinks the president will also need to address other important concerns of voters.

“He keeps saying the economy is great,” James, 69, said. “It’s the best in the world. And that’s true. But when you sit down to pay your bills at the end of the month and your personal economy isn’t as good as it was under Trump, I think some people get nostalgic about the economy they had before the pandemic.”

“There is no acknowledgment of this from the Biden campaign,” she added. “And it drives me crazy when I hear him talk about how great our economy is when I have a nephew who wants to buy a house and doesn’t have the money to do it.”

While talking about abortion is important to Biden’s campaign, McGovern said it will be more important for the president to highlight other achievements.

“I think Biden really deserves some credit for some of his economic policies,” McGovern said. “And he’s done a terrible job of talking about some of the things he’s doing along those lines.”

Participation, motivation of voters to decide 2024

In an election that could depend entirely on turnout, McGovern said he sees a lack of enthusiasm from certain core voting blocs, including students he interacts with as a college professor.

“Their level of disenchantment is so high that they may actually sit out the November elections, despite disagreeing with Trump on so many other issues,” he said. “But they are so angry with Biden that they might as well just stay home.”

Resentment among young voters includes the president’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, as well as issues such as climate change and a general distaste for Biden’s age, McGovern said.

Abortion could be key to energizing Biden’s base and gaining much-needed turnout in swing states, Klar said.

“We have incredibly close elections in Arizona. Biden barely managed a win in 2020,” she said. “Anything can make a difference when we are talking about an election so close. But something like abortion will obviously play a big role.”

This article originally appeared in USA TODAY: Abortion Could Help Biden Campaign in Pennsylvania, Arizona