-
Hezbollah may have surface-to-air missiles that could threaten Israeli aircraft.
-
A recent Israeli attack appears to have damaged an Iranian-made Sayyad-2 missile.
-
The possibility of missiles will “force” the IDF to be more cautious towards Lebanon, an expert said.
Much has been written about Hezbollah’s enormous arsenal of missiles and surface-to-surface rockets and the devastation they could unleash against Israel. However, a recent incident briefly put Hezbollah’s lesser-known air defenses into the spotlight.
After the Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah sites south of the Lebanese city of Sidon, images emerged that allegedly showed the remains of an Iranian-made Sayyad-2 surface-to-air missile. The Israeli military declared that the locations targeted by Hezbollah “posed a threat to Israeli aircraft”.
Israeli media reported that the footage was “apparently the first public evidence suggesting that Hezbollah possesses such missiles”, as had previously been claimed. Hezbollah has been negotiating retaliatory strikes with Israel since the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7, but air defenses suggest that the Israeli Air Force would face a much greater threat in southern Lebanon than in the skies over Gaza.
The Sayyad-2 is a medium-range anti-aircraft missile that Iran developed through heavy reverse engineering of the American RIM-66 standard missile, SM-1, acquired by Tehran before the 1979 revolution. The Sayyad-2 has a shorter range than their successors. The most advanced, the Sayyad-4B, which Iran developed for its Bavar-373 air defense system, has an estimated range of 186 miles.
In October, a Hezbollah-appointed guide showed off some of the group’s firepower to visiting journalists and hinted that they have long-range air defenses like the Russian S-300. “Do you think we don’t have S-300?” he said. “If Iran has the S-300, Hezbollah will definitely have the S-300.”
It is unclear whether Iran attempted to transfer the Bavar-373, Iran’s domestically developed equivalent of the S-300, to Hezbollah with its Sayyad 4/4B missiles.
“Hezbollah’s air defense capabilities are very opaque,” Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of the 2011 book “God’s Warriors: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel,” told the Business Insider. “More is known about other systems in its arsenal than air defense because Hezbollah rarely uses them.”
“However, if Iran has or can acquire an air defense system that meets Hezbollah’s needs, then it is safe to assume that Hezbollah will likely have it,” Blanford said.
The Hezbollah expert also noted that possession of missiles like the Sayyad-2 “certainly increases the threat level” to Israeli aircraft compared to shoulder-fired missiles. He also highlighted that Israel has “always maintained” that any acquisition of advanced air defense systems by Hezbollah amounts to a “red line.”
Since 2013, Israel has maintained an air campaign in Syria targeting Iranian weapons shipments to Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from acquiring high-tech systems. It has intensified this campaign since the Hamas attacks on 10/7, likely making it more difficult than ever for Iran to transfer weapons to Hezbollah through Syria. During this campaign, Israeli jets evaded and sometimes destroyed the Syrian-built Tor and Pantsir short- and medium-range air defenses in Syria.
The Sayyad-2 discovery suggests that Iran has transferred at least some anti-aircraft missiles to its most valuable regional proxy.
“Hezbollah was previously reported to possess Sayyad-2 anti-aircraft missiles, and the Israeli strike on Friday solidified these allegations,” said Freddy Khoueiry, global security analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at risk intelligence firm RANE. . BI. “It was suspected that Hezbollah was using the Sayyad-2 to shoot down some of Israel’s advanced Hermes 900 drones over Lebanon.”
“In recent years, Hezbollah has boasted that it has advanced its air defense capabilities, and the discovery of Hezbollah’s possession of the Sayyad-2 demonstrates the extent to which they have achieved advanced anti-aircraft systems,” Khoueiry said.
Israel has experience in destroying formidable air defenses in Lebanon. When it invaded the country in 1982, it launched a coordinated, large-scale suppression of the enemy air defense operation against a series of Soviet-built surface-to-air missile batteries that Syria had deployed in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.
Operation Mole Cricket 19 destroyed Syrian missiles and saw Israel’s new F-15 and F-16 fighters fight the Syrian Air Force, shooting down 82 Syrian aircraft without losing a single fighter.
Although it is unlikely that Hezbollah will ever have an anti-aircraft missile network of this size, some of its air defenses could nevertheless have an impact on Israeli air operations over Lebanon.
“Overall, this is unlikely to prevent the Israeli Air Force from operating over Lebanon, but it will likely force the Israelis to become more cautious amid Hezbollah’s changing tactics and more advanced capabilities, such as having its fighters fly at higher altitudes. higher altitudes or use stealthier jets like the F-35,” said Khoueiry.
“The Israeli Air Force is much more advanced and can bypass these air defenses while maintaining its immense air superiority, but Israeli drones and helicopters operating over Lebanon may be at greater risk, especially if the IDF expands its operations into Lebanon. Lebanon.”
Khoueiry doubts that Iran will transfer strategic systems like the Bavar-373 to Lebanon.
“It is more likely that Iran can transfer, and has transferred, medium-range and medium-range defensive systems to Hezbollah,” Khoueiry said. “Larger air defense systems such as the Bavar-373 are more difficult to transfer due to their size, but also given that Lebanon’s geography is small and Hezbollah would not be able to adequately operate them there.”
The RANE analyst believes that if Iran were to deploy Bavar-373 in the region, it would send it somewhere like Syria, although he estimates that this is unlikely at this point.
“The Sayyad-2 discovery likely suggests that Iran has been able to transfer more similar advanced defensive systems that Hezbollah is likely to use on a progressive basis as the conflict escalates or in the event of a wider war, especially given the likely limited number they have,” said Khoueiry.
Read the original article at Business Insider
