Nigel Farage electrified the general elections campaign, taking the lead UK Reform It is launching a candidacy to become a deputy.
As first revealed by The IndependentFarage will run in Conservative power Clacton in Essex in what is already being described as “an existential risk” for the Tories.
The decision represents a major blow to Rishi Sunakelectoral hopes, like the old UK leader – who had said he would not run for deputy – confirmed that he changed his mind and decided to contest the general elections.
Within hours of the revelation, Conservative MPs and candidates were invited to attend an information meeting about a promised “immigration block”, meaning that a Conservative government would set a legal limit on annual immigration numbers. The move was not seen as an attempt to stop Reform UK and Farage from splitting the vote to the right.
Farage’s announcement came on a day when two major polls suggested the Tories were already heading for a historically serious defeat. A Yougov MRP poll of 12,000 people predicted Labor will have its biggest majority in more than 100 years at 194, with the Conservatives isolated in 140 seats.
Previously, a Redfield and Wilton poll of 10,000 voters put the Labor Party 26 points ahead of the Labor Party on just 20 percent, suggesting the party could be reduced to just 24 seats. This followed an MRP poll over the weekend suggesting the Conservatives could fall to 66 votes.
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However, leading researchers said the news of Farage’s candidacy makes the outlook even worse for the Conservatives.
Research guru Professor Sir John Curtice described the intervention as “important”.
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer and leading researcher, said The Independent that Mr Farage’s original decision not to stand meant that the Reform vote would be much lower than reflected in the polls and “was the most damaging thing for any party”.
Luke Tryl, of researchers More in Common, tweeted: “Given that our MRP was before Nigel Farage said he was taking over as leader of Reform UK and caused the Conservatives to lose 185 seats and keep another 50 by less than 4 per cent, I think it is fair to say that his decision represents an existential risk to the Conservative party.”
Mr Farage return as leader of Reform UK came with a promise to serve for five years alongside the Conservatives in opposition. Former leader Richard Tice will become party chairman.
Explaining his attempt to become a deputy, as first revealed exclusively by The Independent at lunchtime on Monday, Farage said he could not disappoint “millions of people” who supported his previous political projects.
In what he called an emergency press conference, he added: “Something is happening out there.
“There is a rejection of the political class in this country in a way that has not been seen in modern times.”
A Conservative Party spokesman said: “Nigel Farage risks handing Keir Starmer a blank check to return to the EU, imposing superannuation tax on pensioners and increasing taxes on British workers across the UK.
“Farage knows that Reform won’t win any seats, but he doesn’t seem to care that a vote for Reform only helps the Labor Party. He is doing exactly what Keir Starmer wants him to do.
“Just yesterday, EU members openly expressed their expectation that Starmer would seek a softer Brexit deal, opening the door for everyone to reintegrate into the EU together. This would mean uncontrolled immigration and a betrayal of the will of the British people. Is Farage really willing to risk undoing his life’s work by handing Starmer a blank check to return to the EU?”
Farage is taking a risk because he has never won parliamentary seats after seven attempts. However, he won the national elections to the European Parliament as leader of UKIP and the Brexit Party (now Reform UK).
On Monday, he said he was only “serious” once, once he said the Conservatives cheated. “Every time before it was as a pressure group to raise the profile of why we believed leaving the EU made sense when no one else in parliament was saying so.”
He also declared that Labor has already won the election and that there is no contest between Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer. And he said Reform believes the current general election campaign is “the dullest, most boring election we have ever seen”. “We think this election needs a little treading,” he added.
Outlining Reform’s long-term ambitions, Farage said they would form the opposition in the next parliament and be the largest party in the 2029 general election. “That’s the ambition, simple as that,” he added.
And he said the party will surprise everyone by winning many more votes than the 3.9 million won by UKIP in 2015.
He added: “When people start to realize the red wall, with Reform behind Labour, when they start to realize that actually in these seats, it’s a Conservative vote which is a vote for Labor, it’s a Conservative vote. which is a wasted vote, so I think we can surprise everyone.
“We’re appealing to Conservative voters, we’re appealing to Labor voters.”
Responding to the announcement, Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said: “The Conservative Party has already become the mirror image of Nigel Farage’s Reform.
“Rishi Sunak’s steadfast support for Reform has horrified former long-term Tory voters in the center.
“Sunak must show some firmness and rule out the possibility of Farage joining the Conservative Party in the future, including if he is elected as an MP.”
The Yougov MRP poll, before Mr Farage’s statement, gave the Conservatives the most optimistic result, but still left them facing the worst defeat in their 346-year history.
It suggested that Labor would have a majority of 194 with 422 seats, with the Conservatives on just 140 and the Liberal Democrats on 48, driven by a tactical voting campaign revealed by The Independent on the weekend.
The result would mean big names including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, House leader Penny Mordaunt and Brex campaigner Jacob Rees-Mogg would lose their seats.
But other polls suggested the outcome could be even worse – even before Farage decided to run. Redfield and Wilton’s poll of 10,000 voters put Labor within 26 points of the Conservatives, by 46% to 20%. This could leave the Conservatives with just 24 seats and polling director Philip Can Scheltinga has confidently predicted that they will get “fewer than 100 seats”.
Techne UK has been predicting fewer than 100 seats for the Conservatives for months, since the fall of Boris Johnson.
Techne chief executive Michela Morizzo suggested Tuesday night’s leaders’ debate between Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer could be a last chance for the prime minister.
She said: “In this specific case, I believe the debate will be useful in consolidating the opinions of those who have already formed their opinions and have clear ideas about who to vote for. Certainly, even some undecided voters may have clearer ideas after the debate – especially the less informed – but it is difficult to say now whether this can bridge the gap, but above all it is difficult to achieve.”
Lord Hayward noted: “There are a lot of undecided voters out there, especially 2019 Conservative voters. The Prime Minister’s best hope is to try to appeal to them. This means that, unusually, this debate may offer you a chance.”
However, Sir John Curtice has warned that TV debates are unlikely to change things, with the only major change coming with “Cleggmania”, when former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg took the first debate of 2010 by storm.
He said: “It’s a chance [for Sunak] but not anymore. The two head-to-head clashes in 2019 were followed by only marginal changes in the polls – slightly to Labour’s advantage. Nothing has ever replicated the impact of the first (3-way) debate in 2010.”
