Chances continue to increase that a tropical depression could form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico next week, the National Hurricane Center said, while a disturbance emerged Saturday night that could develop into a low pressure area within a week and affect the east. Florida coast.
The system in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move slowly west or west-northwest, and saw its chances of development over the next seven days increase to 60% in the tropical forecast released at 7:10 p.m. Saturday.
It could become a tropical depression early or mid-week, according to the NHC.
Meanwhile, Saturday night’s forecast detected an area that could develop into a low pressure area located off the coast of Florida, north of the central Bahamas.
This system had a 20% chance of developing over the next seven days, with the NHC saying Saturday that an area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week, a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas, with some slow development will be possible thereafter as the system moves west or west-northwest.
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began on June 1, is expected to be extremely active.
In its annual May forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
The first named storm to form in 2024 would be Alberto.
Additionally, NOAA predicted four to seven major hurricanes for 2024, i.e., those of Category 3 or higher.
Experts from Colorado State University stated in your prediction for 2024 that the US East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
Forecasters say the record water temperatures now covering much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into the height of hurricane season, from August through October. This hot water fuels hurricanes. At the beginning of June, the the tropical Atlantic was already so hot as is usually the case in mid-August – peak hurricane season.
Hurricane season officially ends on November 30th.
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(Sun Sentinel staff writers Bill Kearney and Robin Webb contributed to this report.)
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