Tropical wave moves over Gulf, another in Atlantic could develop over weekend

A tropical disturbance that formed on Monday off the coast of Guyana and Suriname is expected to reach the western Caribbean later this week, while a second disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic could develop shortly after.

The tropical wave in the western Caribbean will travel west through the southern Gulf of Mexico toward Belize and southern Mexico on the Yucatan Peninsula, the National Hurricane Center said. It is moving quickly west at about 40 km/h.

As of 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, there was a 20% chance of developing over the next seven days.

Meteorologists are also recording a second disturbance a few hundred kilometers southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, located about 480 kilometers off the west coast of Africa. It could develop slowly this weekend or early next week as it moves quickly westward, the hurricane center said.

As of 2pm on Wednesday, it had a 40% chance of developing over the next seven days.

The western Gulf of Mexico spawned the first tropical storm of the 2024 season last week. Called Alberto, the system made landfall in Mexico, 250 miles south of the U.S. border, but sent storm surge and flooding to locations 500 miles away in Louisiana.

The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began on June 1, is expected to be extremely active.

In its annual May forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph and eight to 13 hurricanes. . An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.

Additionally, NOAA predicted four to seven major hurricanes for 2024, i.e., those of Category 3 or higher.

Experts at Colorado State University said in their 2024 forecast that the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.

Forecasters say the record water temperatures now covering much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into the height of hurricane season, from August through October. This hot water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic was already as hot as it normally is in mid-August – the peak of hurricane season.

Hurricane season officially ends on November 30th.

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