Bankir and his men have been trying to combat Russian attacks along Ukrainian front lines for more than two years. But only now are they finally able to attack where it hurts: Within Russia’s own territory.
The permission recently granted by the United States and other allies to use Western weapons to attack inside Russia has had a huge impact, Bankir said. “We destroyed targets inside Russia, which enabled several successful counteroffensives. The Russian military can no longer feel impunity and security,” the senior officer of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told CNN. For security reasons, he asked to be identified only by his call sign.
After many months at a disadvantage due to ammunition and manpower shortages, Kiev is finally able to make the most of the Western military aid that began flowing into the country last month, after months of delays.
Soldiers on the front line say the deliveries are starting to make a difference – especially as they can now use the arsenal to attack across the border.
“We can see the impact of aid every day. Artillery, long-range multiple launch rocket systems with various types of ammunition and submunitions… are affecting the overall picture of the battlefield,” Ivan, an officer with the 148th artillery brigade, told CNN. He also asked that his full name not be published for security reasons.
“We are deploying the most effective weapons systems in areas where the Russians are trying to break through defensive lines and there has been a significant slowdown in the Russian advance,” he added.
Although Kiev was unable to recover large swaths of territory, it managed to avoid what could have been a disaster: the occupation of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city.
‘Tragic moment’
Part of the northern Kharkiv region, including the cities of Izium, Kupiansk and Balakliia, fell to Russia shortly after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The occupation was brutal. When the area was released in fall 2022Ukrainian troops found evidence of what they consider to be war crimes committed by Russian forces, including multiple mass graves and torture chambers.
In May this year, Russia launched another cross-border attack in the region, seeking to exploit Ukraine’s ammunition shortages ahead of the expected arrival of the first Western weapons.
The consequences were deadly. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) stated that at least 174 civilians 690 were killed and injured in Ukraine in May, the highest number of civilian casualties in a year.
More than half of the civilian casualties occurred in Kharkiv – despite the region covering a relatively small area compared to the entire country.
International security expert Oleksiy Melnyk, a former Ukrainian defense official and co-director of foreign affairs and international security programs at the Razumkov Center in Kiev, told CNN that the reoccupation of previously liberated areas north of Kharkiv was a “tragic moment.” . to Ukraine.
But it also marked an important turning point.
“This triggered a change in the position of our Western partners, encouraged them to at least partially remove restrictions on the use of Western weapons,” he said.
Fearing escalation, the US and other Western allies have long banned Kiev from using its weapons to attack inside Russia, restricting their use to Ukrainian areas under Russian occupation.
This allowed Russia to use the border areas as a safe staging ground for offensives and missile attacks.
“(Russia) knew that Ukraine did not have the capability to strike these targets on Russian territory,” Melnyk said.
“If the decision (to provide aid) had not been made, if we had lost American support and military assistance, it would have been a game changer.”
But the possibility of Russian reoccupation of parts of the Kharkiv region convinced some of Ukraine’s key allies, including the US, to lift restrictions. This allowed Kiev to strike and destroy or seriously damage important targets inside Russia.
According to Ukrainian defense officials, these included a regiment command post in the Belgorod region, an ammunition depot in Voronezh, a drone facility and airfield in Krasnodar, communications centers in Bryansk, and several naval sites. in occupied Crimea.
The arrival of long-range ATACMS missile systems was a particular game changer, Melnyk said. While Ukraine was previously able to strike targets inside Russia using Ukrainian-made drones, ATACMS makes these attacks much more efficient.
“Speed is important,” Melnyk explained. “With drone attacks, the Russians have hours to react because they can detect Ukrainian drones early. Russian pilots can have a coffee and smoke a cigarette before entering the cockpit and taking off to dismantle it. With ATACMS it’s a matter of minutes,” he said.
Konrad Muzyka, an independent defense analyst and director of Rochan Consulting who recently returned from eastern Ukraine, said Russia is also no longer capable of targeting the Kharkiv region with S-300 and S-400 missile systems.
“Ukraine started conducting HIMARS strikes against targets in the Belgorod region and forced the Russians to push their S-300 system with which they were attacking Kharkiv much further away, so now Kharkiv is out of range of the Russian S-300 systems. “, he said. .
While Russia has switched to glide aerial bombs – guided munitions with pop-up wings dropped by fighter jets from a distance of around 60-70 kilometers – beyond the reach of Ukraine’s air defenses, the elimination of the S-300 threat has provided at least some relief for Kharkiv.
Weapons without men, men without strategy?
But although the new weapons are making a difference, Ukraine is still a long way from being able to expel Russian forces from its territory.
Another officer from the 148th separate artillery brigade, who goes by the call sign Senator, told CNN that there is still much more that Ukraine needs.
“It’s not enough to turn the tide at the front. Enough to contain the enemy, yes, but not enough to drastically change the situation,” he said.
“The enemy is now exhausted, but not destroyed,” he said, pointing to the fact that Russia still has total air superiority over Ukraine.
Kiev is now pinning its hopes on deliveries of F-16 fighter jets, which are expected to begin soon – the first Ukrainian pilots were expected to complete their training in the US this summer.
But Muzyka said it was far from certain that the jets would bring about a major change in Ukraine’s fortunes.
“F-16s are combat aircraft from the 1980s and 1990s and their capabilities are worse than the most modern Russian combat aircraft,” he said, adding that the newer Russian jets would likely prevail in an aerial battle with the F-16. -16.
However, Ukraine could still use the F-16 to deny Russia control over the skies – and fend off Russian bomb-delivering planes.
However, the new weapons are only part of the puzzle.
“If it weren’t for the supplemental package, Ukrainians would be in a much worse situation right now, but at the same time, the current situation is not just the result of a lack of action on the part of the US Congress, it is also the result of decisions that were taken and were not taken in Kiev, especially when it comes to mobilization,” Muzyka said.
“The decision to introduce broader mobilization was probably as important, if not more important, and came too late,” he said. The new mobilization law, which requires all men between the ages of 18 and 60 to register with Ukraine’s armed forces, came into force in May.
He said that although Ukraine has managed to recruit a significant number of men over the past month and a half, it will take time for these new soldiers to be trained and ready for the front lines.
“The Ukrainians will be in a very difficult position until August, September, when the first mobilized people start to enter the front line. If they can get to that point, then there is a high probability that they will be able to stabilize the situation from August onwards, but until that happens, further Russian gains are highly likely.”
Muzyka said that with the arrival of new weapons and with battalions and brigades soon receiving a boost from new recruits, Ukraine will have to decide on its next steps.
“It’s not clear what the plans are. What is the strategy for counteroffensives? The problem is that Ukraine is waiting to see what equipment the West can provide them, and the West is waiting to see what plans Ukraine has for the future,” he said.
Time is of the essence here. Experts estimate that the $60 billion aid package approved by the US earlier this year will last – at best – a year or 18 months.
Ukraine’s allies made new pledges on weapons this week, while at a NATO summit in Washington, DC, President Volodymyr Zelensky called for the lifting of all restrictions on their use.
Given the possibility of former US President Donald Trump winning a second term in November – he has little time left.
Maria Kostenko and Daria Tarasova-Markina contributed reporting.
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