After more than 1,600 kilometers and almost three hours of flight, the squadron of Israeli F-15s and F35s launched their missiles at the port of Hudaydah in Yemenleaving in its wake a raging fire and renewed fears of a Middle East engulfed in a wider war.
Israel’s retaliatory strike was intended as a inflammatory message to a militant group that hit Tel Aviv with deadly drone attack the previous day. But, experts say, Israel may have given the Houthi rebels the legitimacy they have long sought, leading them to step up attacks on Israel and shipping in the region.
Israel’s attack on Saturday night, which killed six dockworkers and injured dozens, was the country’s first attack on Yemeni territory. The drone attack by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia, which controls vast areas of Yemen and is allied with Hamas, managed to penetrate Israel’s defenses and kill one civilian and injure at least 10 others.
In fact, Israel’s attack will likely further embolden the Houthis, said Hisham al Omeisy, a US-based Yemeni analyst. It could contribute to his oft-repeated narrative of defending Muslims against the United States and Israel.
“The Houthis desperately wanted this direct confrontation to legitimize their claim to be in a fight with Israel,” Omeisy said.
See more information: Many in Lebanon fear being caught in the Hezbollah-Israel crossfire
The group – part of a regional network of Iranian-backed factions operating in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Gaza – has been launching missiles and drones at Israel (almost all of which have been intercepted). It is demanding that Israel end the war in Gaza, which killed more than 39,000 Palestinians in the territory. The war began after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, killing around 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages.
The Houthis also repeatedly attacked ships transiting the Red Sea and the Gulf of AdenIncluding those with no links to Israel. O US and Britain launched several rounds in joint attacks on the Houthis over the sea attacks.
Israel’s attacks on Yemen have destroyed storage tanks holding more than 150,000 tons of fuel, along with a number of cranes and piers, said Mohammed Albasha, senior Yemen expert at U.S.-based consulting firm Navanti Group.
Days later, fires are still raging at the port, a crucial aid and lifeline for the Houthi-controlled areas of the country, where the majority of the country’s 33 million people live. Although firefighters have not yet fully extinguished the flames at the port’s fuel depot and power plant or removed the debris from destroyed cranes, authorities said Monday that the port is operational.
See more information: Israel’s ‘GPS spoofing’ fools missiles, but also commercial planes, dating apps in the Middle East
In the hours following the attacks, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant characterized the attack as a message not only to the Houthis but also to Israel’s regional enemies.
“The fire currently burning in Hudaydah is seen throughout the Middle East and the meaning is clear,” Gallant after the Israeli attack.
“The Houthis have attacked us more than 200 times,” Gallant said. “The first time they hurt an Israeli citizen, we attacked them. And we will do it anywhere we need to.”
However, it’s a message the Houthis are unlikely to heed, experts say.
“The Israeli attack was designed to shock and terrify, but unfortunately we are dealing with the Houthis,” said Hisham Omeisy, a US-based Yemeni analyst.
The Houthis, who began as anti-government rebels, have spent years in pitched battles with the Yemeni state; in 2014, they invaded the capital, Sanaa, and then turned to the rest of the country. To stop them, a Saudi-led attack – bolstered by American weapons, intelligence and logistical support – launched a devastating air campaign and blockade that has brought Yemenis to the brink of starvation. When a ceasefire was signed in April 2022, the Houthis remained even stronger in the areas they controlled.
“Shock and awe and the use of overwhelming power didn’t really work on them when they were attacked by a coalition of countries,” Omeisy said. “Then it won’t work now.”
See more information: $32 for a cigarette? In Gaza, even a dose of nicotine is difficult to get
Since the attack, Houthi authorities have promised a “massive” response to the Israeli attack, and on Sunday, launched a ballistic missile at Israel that was intercepted. That same day, the group’s leader, Abdul Malek Al-Houthi, gave a televised speech in which he said he was “very happy” that the group was now involved in a direct battle with Israel and the United States.
“Israeli aggression against our country will contribute to the further escalation of our operations against it and also to the development of our capabilities, and the enemy will lose and incur more dangers for itself,” he said.
The Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, the most powerful armed faction of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, characterized Israel’s attack as a “foolish step” that “heralds a new and dangerous phase of extremely important confrontation at the level of the entire region.”
Israel has negotiated attacks with several groups in Axis Iran, which also includes factions in Syria and Iraq, pushing the Middle East closer to all-out war.
The Houthis, as well as their allies in other Iranian-backed factions, are expected to intensify their attacks on both Israel and the Red Sea, using more advanced weaponry supplied by Iran than the group has possessed in the past, Albasha said. .
“Historically, Iran has not given the Houthis the latest technology. Now they do,” he said. He pointed out that the drone used in the attack on Tel Aviv, which the Houthis called Yafa (the Arabic name for Jaffa), was a modified version of the Houthi-made Sammad 3 drone – but with a newer engine and possibly upgraded avionics.
Last week, the Houthis used kamikaze drones to attack two ships in the Red Sea. Reports said the drone boats were an updated design of the Toofan, a drone boat with a 4,500-pound payload capable of reaching 45 nautical miles per hour.
The fact that any escalation would have consequences in Yemen, already the poorest country in the region and one of the most war-torn countries, was not necessarily a problem for the Houthis, said Fatima Alasrar, a non-resident scholar at the think tank Middle East Institute. .
“The Houthis have not shied away from taking advantage of the conflict to expand their influence and capabilities,” she said.
“They will continue to attack regardless of the consequences.”
This story originally appeared on Los Angeles Times.
