By Maya Gebeily, Timour Azhari and Laila Bassam
BEIRUT (Reuters) – Lebanon’s Hezbollah did not clear its sensitive sites or evacuate senior officials in the Beirut suburbs ahead of this week’s attack that killed a senior commander because it believed U.S.-led diplomacy would deter Israel from attacking the area, intelligence sources said. security close to the group. and diplomats said.
Hezbollah’s impression was that Israel would not target the southern suburbs, or Dahiyeh, a center of support for the Shi’ite Muslim group, as it believed Israeli forces would adhere to the unofficial red lines that both sides have generally observed in the intensifying conflict. during the Gaza War, they said.
This assessment was relayed to Reuters by eight diplomats with knowledge of recent mediation efforts led by Washington and including France and the United Nations, as well as three security sources close to Hezbollah. All spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the topic.
That understanding was shattered on Tuesday when an Israeli attack on Dahiyeh in Beirut killed Hezbollah’s top military commander, an Iranian military adviser and five civilians. Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah now question whether diplomatic assurances were accurately conveyed to the group.
“We didn’t expect them to hit Beirut and they hit Beirut,” Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib told Reuters.
Coupled with the murder in Tehran hours later of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Palestinian armed group Hamas, it risks sending the entire region into a violent crisis.
Tensions began to rise after a deadly attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27, which Israel blamed on Hezbollah, promising retaliation. The group denied any involvement.
Diplomats rushed to contain the fallout, urging Israel not to attack Dahiyeh as part of its response, with U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein specifically relaying those messages, several diplomats and a Lebanese official with direct knowledge of the mediation efforts told Reuters.
A Hezbollah official said mediators informed them of such efforts. The Lebanese official and three diplomats involved in the message said Israel had not made any commitments.
‘DIPLOMACY HAS SPOKEN’
Still, Hezbollah’s stance signaled its comfort: in the days leading up to the strike, senior officials from the group were seen moving around Dahiyeh.
Hezbollah has emptied some of its key sites in southern and eastern Lebanon in anticipation of possible attacks, but has not taken similar measures in Beirut, two security sources told Reuters. Hezbollah figures living near the targeted building were rushed out in panic after the building was hit, the sources said.
A regional diplomat said this meant Israel had no major Hezbollah targets to strike in southern or eastern Lebanon. Two European diplomats said Hezbollah took no protective measures in Beirut and was “not cautious.”
Several diplomats, as well as a Western envoy, said they understood Dahiyeh would be spared. “A clear message was sent” that Israel would spare major cities, including Beirut, a diplomat said.
Instead, they said, Israel avoided efforts to constrain its response. “The Israelis don’t listen to a word we tell them. They are following their plan and they don’t listen to us,” said one of the European diplomats.
The Western envoy and an Iranian official said Israel “crossed red lines” in attacking Dahiyeh. “Diplomacy has failed,” the envoy told Reuters, saying the ability of countries, even the United States, to influence Israel was limited.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in a speech on Thursday marking the funeral of slain commander Fuad Shukr, said Israel “does not know to what extent it has crossed red lines” and that unnamed countries have asked the group not to respond to strike – a request he rejected.
MISCALCULATION
International efforts to control Israel’s military offensive against the Gaza Strip – a response to Hamas’ cross-border attack on Israel on October 7 – have already met with limited success.
The United States has urged Israel to unblock aid supplies to Gaza, avoid civilian casualties and refrain from launching a large-scale military offensive in Rafah, but its diplomatic efforts have yielded few results.
“The Israelis feel that they are surrounded from all angles, politically and militarily, and it is a somewhat risky situation,” a Western diplomat told Reuters.
As a result, Israel has changed the rules of war fighting, carrying out more audacious attacks against its Iranian, Lebanese and Palestinian enemies, diplomats and analysts in the region said.
Hezbollah “misinterpreted” Israel’s mindset and thought it had done enough to dissuade Israel from bold attacks in Lebanon, several diplomats working on the issue and the Lebanese official said.
“Hamas, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have miscalculated since October 7 and misjudged each other,” the Western envoy said.
(Reporting by Maya Gebeily, Timour Azhari and Laila Bassam in Beirut; Editing by Samia Nakhoul and Ros Russell)
