WASHINGTON (AP) — Israel demonstrated its military dominance over adversary Iran in their apparent precision attacks which struck close to military and nuclear targets in the heart of the country, facing few significant challenges to Iran’s defenses and providing the world with new perspectives on their military capabilities.
The international community, Israel and Iran expressed hope that Friday’s airstrikes would put an end to what has been a dangerous 19-day series of attacks and counterattacks, a highly public test between two deep rivals who had previously stalled. before the most direct confrontation.
The shift to open combat began on April 1 with the suspected Israeli assassination of Iranian generals at an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. This motivated Iran’s retaliatory barrage last weekend, more than 300 missiles and drones that the US, Israel and regional and international partners helped shoot down without significant damage in Israel. And then came Friday’s apparent Israeli attack.
As all parties took stock, regional security experts predicted that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government and the country’s allies would emerge emboldened by the superior performance of the Israeli military. However, in response to international calls, both Israel and Iran appeared to be holding back their entire military strength during the more than two weeks of hostilities, with the aim of sending messages rather than escalating to a full-scale war.
Crucially, experts also warned that Iran has not brought its biggest military advantage over Israel – Hezbollah and other Iranian-allied armed groups in the region – to the main battle. Hezbollah, in particular, is capable of harming Israel’s defense capabilities, especially in any multifront conflict.
Overall, “the general lesson to take away is that unless Iran does absolutely everything at its disposal at once, it will be the David, not the Goliath, in this equation,” said Charles Lister, a senior and long-time researcher. regional researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
In addition to these Iranian proxy forces, “the Israelis have every advantage at every military level,” Lister said.
In Friday’s attack, Iranian state television said the country’s air defense batteries fired in several provinces following reports of drones. Iranian army commander General Abdolrahim Mousavi said crews targeted several flying objects.
Lister said it appeared to have been a single mission by a small number of Israeli aircraft. After crossing Syrian airspace, it appears they only fired two or three Blue Sparrow air-to-ground missiles at Iran, likely from an isolated position in the airspace of Iran’s neighbor, Iraq, he said.
Iran said its air defenses fired at a key air base near Isfahan. Isfahan is also home to sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including its underground Natanz enrichment facility, which has been repeatedly targeted by suspected Israeli sabotage attacks.
Israel has not claimed responsibility for either the April 1 attacks or Friday’s attacks.
The Jewish National Security Institute of America, a Washington-based center that promotes security ties between Israel and the US, was quick to point out that Friday’s small attack underlined that Israel could cause far more damage “should it decide to launch a major attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.” .”
Iran’s barrage last weekend, on the other hand, appears to have exhausted most of its 150 long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, more than 1,000 miles away, said retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, a former US Army commander. Central Command.
Especially given the distance involved and the ease with which the U.S. and other countries track missile launches through airborne space sensors and regional radars, “it is difficult for Iran to generate a bolt from the blue against Israel,” McKenzie said.
The Israelis, for their part, “have demonstrated that Israel can now target Iran from its soil with missiles, perhaps even drones,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute.
However, Iran’s performance on Friday may have raised doubts about its ability to defend itself against such an attack, Vatanka said. Iran is about 80 times the size of Israel and therefore has much more territory to defend, he noted.
Furthermore, Israel has demonstrated that it can rally the support of powerful regional and international countries, both Arab and Western, to defend itself against Iran.
The US led aid to Israel to put down Iran’s missile and drone attack on April 13. Jordan and Gulf countries are believed to have provided varying degrees of assistance, including sharing information about future attacks.
The two weeks of hostilities also provided the greatest demonstration of Israel’s growing ability to work with Arab nations, its former enemies, within the framework of US Central Command, which oversees US forces in the Middle East.
The US, under the Trump administration, transferred responsibility for its military coordination with Israel to Central Command, which already hosted US military coordination with Arab countries. The Biden administration has been working to deepen the relationship.
But while the exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran revealed more about Iran’s military capabilities, Lebanon-based Hezbollah and other Iranian-allied armed groups in Iraq and Syria appeared largely to remain on the sidelines.
Hezbollah is one of the most powerful militaries in the region, with tens of thousands of experienced fighters and a huge arsenal of weapons.
After an intense war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, which killed more than a thousand Lebanese civilians and dozens of Israeli civilians, both sides avoided escalating into another large-scale conflict. But the Israeli and Hezbollah militaries still routinely fire across each other’s borders during the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza.
Hezbollah “is Iran’s only remaining potential advantage in this broader equation,” Lister said.
Six months of fighting in Gaza has “completely overwhelmed” Israel’s armed forces, he said. “If Hezbollah went all out and launched the vast majority of its arsenal of rockets and missiles at Israel all at once, the Israelis would have serious difficulty dealing with it.”
And in terms of ground forces, if Hezbollah were to suddenly open a second front, the Israel Defense Forces “would be unable at this time” to fight at full strength with both Hezbollah and Hamas, he said.
