Analysis: Kamala’s vice appointment will shake up an already surreal campaign

The stunning transformation of the 2024 presidential race will reach new heights this Tuesday (6), when Vice President Kamala Harris introduces her running mate after a sequence of events that left Republican candidate Donald Trump struggling.

Harris is expected to join her vice presidential pick at a rally in Philadelphia that will kick off a joint race for an electoral map expanded by President Joe Biden’s shelving of her own re-election bid just over two weeks ago.

In the final hours of her search, after a restricted vetting period, Harris selected two candidates – governor of Pennsylvania. Josh Shapiro, 51, and governor of Minnesota. Tim Walz, 60, sources told CNN, although Arizona Senator Mark Kelly remained in the race as of Monday afternoon (5).

Shapiro is a rising Democratic star whose popularity in the community could be an advantage for Harris in perhaps the most vital swing state. Walz is an experienced progressive leader whose profile could help bolster Midwestern blue wall states, including Wisconsin and Michigan, which could represent Harris’ best path to the Oval Office.

The theatrics will offer the vice president a new opportunity to boost the momentum of her candidacy, which has energized a party that seemed destined for defeat in November and intensified the race to a drawn fight in a polarized country. His relative youth, at 59, has reversed the generational contrast with Trump, 78, now that the question of Biden’s age in a potential second term is moot.

While the nomination of the Democratic vice presidential pick is the focus of the campaign, new developments on Monday — outside of a race that has been on an important trajectory since Trump escaped an assassination attempt and Biden withdrew — suggested new potential turnarounds before November.

Economy and Middle East

The latest developments in Kamala Harris’ campaign took place against a backdrop of rapidly developing national and global events that reflect the complex political environment she would have to navigate if the novelty of her sudden nomination in the race wore off.

A global stock market crash, for example, sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1,000 points on Monday, amid rising unemployment and revived fears of a U.S. recession that could further sour voters. in an economy that the White House insists is in great shape but that has millions of people deeply insecure.

There are no signs that the US economy faces an imminent collapse on the scale of the 2008 crisis that helped lead to Democrat Barack Obama’s victory over Republican John McCain. The banking system appears strong, inflation has slowed, and the US has recovered more strongly than other developed nations since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Still, in a tight election likely to be decided by a few thousand votes in a handful of swing states, any issue could be decisive. Any economic shocks in the coming weeks could prove treacherous for Harris, as she is tied to the current administration but also lacks the ability to influence factors such as whether the Federal Reserve will begin making long-awaited interest rate cuts. .

Harris on Monday also had to juggle discussions about her selection with her official duties.

She joined Biden in the White House Situation Room amid intense diplomacy as signs point to an Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel that would risk triggering a full-scale regional war that could drag on in the United States. .

The news that several US military personnel were injured in an alleged rocket attack on an air base in Iraq once again highlighted the many factors that are beyond the vice president’s control and that could shake up the electoral race in the period leading up to November.

Several US officials told CNN that the US expects Iran to retaliate for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, perhaps within 24 hours – a period that could coincide with the vice president’s plans to nominate her running mate.

The war in the Middle East has already had a significant impact on the campaign. Israel’s repeated disregard for Biden’s calls to protect civilians in its attack on Hamas in Gaza following the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks has fueled divisions in the Democratic coalition, especially in the battleground state of Michigan, which is home to many Arab Americans.

War has also loomed over Harris’ search for a running mate, as Shapiro, who is Jewish, is under fire from some on the left for comments condemning the tone of the campus protests. Although he has been more openly critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu than Biden, some progressives have warned against choosing him as a running mate.

Rep. Jake Auchincloss on Monday criticized a campaign by what he described as the “overly online left” against Shapiro’s possible nomination. “There is a strong undercurrent of anti-Semitism in this,” the Massachusetts Democrat told Kasie Huntfrom CNN.

Trump seeks openness as he struggles to deal with Harris

Trump, who has struggled to adapt his campaign to his new Democratic opponent, sought to exploit both evolving crises on Monday in a way that pointed to a potentially more effective attack on Harris than the week’s questioning of her racial identity. last.

He called the stock sale a “Kamala Crash” on social media and warned that World War III was looming.

The former president’s comments lacked context and were excessively alarmist. But perception is often as important as reality in a presidential race. Trump is trying to link Harris to what he claims are Biden’s failures, while also seeking to foster a sense among Americans that the country and the world are quickly out of control.

At the very least, the economy and instability in the Middle East will increase pressure on Harris to do more to counter Trump’s populist economic arguments and to deliver on how she would lead at a time when America’s global power is more challenged than expected. has been in decades.

A critical choice

Choosing a running mate is the first and most critical decision a party candidate makes. After all, they are choosing a potential commander in chief who they consider suitable to serve as president should the worst happen to them.

But while the choice generates enormous public interest, fundraising potential, and can bolster a presidential candidate’s narrative or offset his or her responsibilities, it has been years since a vice presidential selection was the deciding factor in winning an election. .

The most important tactical consideration for Harris, therefore, may be ensuring that his choice does not undermine its successful implementation – whether in action or by exposing past actions. Any errors in verifying his election could offer Trump and his campaign the opportunity to dismantle a misjudged candidacy and regain some traction.

The vice president has just witnessed an object lesson in the dangers of this step. Trump and his team spent two weeks having to defend his vice-president pick, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, after his previous reference to Democratic politicians as “childless women who own cats” contributed to the harshest launch of any pick for vice president since Republican Sarah Palin in 2008.

Harris’ campaign will seek a scandal-free launch and triumphant tour of the swing state, keeping Trump off balance for another week and allowing Kamala to enter the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on a high note in two weeks’ time.

Tuesday’s events in Philadelphia would have been unthinkable less than three weeks ago, when Biden resisted mounting Democratic efforts to oust him following his disastrous June debate performance in Atlanta. At the time, the 2024 race – which promises far-reaching consequences for democracy and America’s future path – was still about re-election following the attempt to kill Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, just before he claimed his third consecutive party nomination. Republican.

The race for the White House had already been shaped by Trump’s multiple legal troubles, but the success of his court delay tactics and the help of conservative judges delayed the reckoning for his most serious alleged offenses – including his attempt to steal the election 2020.

Still, Harris’ strong start appears to have restored the election to a close race, according to recent polls. In the last survey of CNN, for example, there was no clear leader nationally, with Trump at 49% and Harris at 47%. But the vice president’s campaign is so new that it’s too early to assess the full impact of her entry into the race, especially without a critical mass of new data on swing states.

A successful implementation of his running mate offers the prospect of a few more weeks of positive vibes in a transformed race – if external events don’t get in the way.

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This content was originally created in English.

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