A key election detractor on Wednesday changed his ratings of three states in the presidential race in favor of Democrats, as Vice President Harris rises in the polls against former President Trump.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed your rating from Minnesota and New Hampshire from “Leans Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” and Georgia from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up” on Wednesday, noting that Harris performed vastly better than President Biden before dropping out of race last month.
“In the few weeks that Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the Democrats’ standard-bearer, she has ‘redefined’ the electoral map to some extent, as she has polled better than President Biden’s performance before ending his campaign. ”, a post explaining change states.
The post adds that Harris has at least managed to “stop the bleeding” since Biden’s poor debate performance against Trump in late June. He says several national polling aggregators have her at least slightly ahead of Trump in a race, while Biden was generally trailing the former president before he dropped out.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball initially led Minnesota — the home state of Harris’ running mate, Gov. Tim Walz — to lean only in favor of the Democrats, given his analysis that the state was only slightly more left-leaning than Michigan. , which is classified as a bid. -above. But some recently released polls, including a Fox News poll where she led by 6 points and a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll where she led by 10, make the state appear likely to continue to vote bluer than the country overall.
The post claims that Walz’s inclusion on the ticket only makes him more firmly in the “likely Democrat” category, even though running mates generally provide only small advantages in the home state.
The Crystal Ball notes that New Hampshire voted more closely to Minnesota in 2020, and polls showed the state similar results to four years ago. Polls showed Harris giving Democrats back more of the lead they traditionally had in the Granite State, after a poll just before Biden dropped out had Trump just ahead.
Regarding the change in Georgia, the post states that Biden’s path to victory while in the race appeared to run through the Midwest, as several Sun Belt states were running away from him. States in that region, such as Arizona and Nevada, remained in dispute, but Georgia began to lean towards the Republicans in June.
Since launching her candidacy, Harris has surpassed Biden’s numbers, and Trump has rehashed old wounds by attacking Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), both popular in the state. Sabato said this makes the state more “legitimately competitive” than it was with Biden in the race.
“In terms of the overall trajectory of the 2024 race, there has been no shortage of whiplash since the end of June. The rapid developments since the debate have been a lot for those of us who follow politics for a living, let alone voters who are just tuning in to the campaign,” the post states. “Perhaps by Labor Day, when both party conventions are completed, the nature of the race will be less fluid. But for now, we feel it is justified to move at least some states back in the Democratic direction.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
