Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.) is keeping his distance from the newly formed Harris-Walz ticket as the vulnerable incumbent faces a tight re-election race that could determine control of the upper chamber.
TesterpraisedVice President Harris when she became President Biden’s 2020 running mate, but he has kept his 2024 presidential bid at arm’s length. Last week, hesupposedly abstainedwhen Montana’s Democratic delegates joined a virtual call to vote for Harris to become the party’s official nominee. He is also expected to skip the Democratic National Convention (DNC) this month, even as party energy builds behind Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D).
At the same time, the embattled senator this week launched a “Republicans for Testers” group to rally support from all sides. His actions underscore the difficult political landscape he faces in Big Sky County, where former President Trump won by more than 16 points in 2020.
“In a state like Montana, it is not advantageous to be seen as what your opponent will label as a San Francisco liberal, who is paired with a Minnesota liberal, and open yourself up to the social/cultural wars that this ticket brings,” he said. Democratic strategist Fred Hicks.
“You have the narrowest margins possible [in the Senate]. There is no margin for error. And so you absolutely have to allow people to do what’s best if you want to maintain control,” Hicks added. “It makes perfect, very smart sense for Tester, even though he is a Democrat and no one doubts that, not to give his opponents any additional fodder.”
Democrats are defending optimism about their efforts to maintain control of the Senate, where they currently hold a two-seat majority. The party cannot afford to lose Tester’s seat, which Republicans see as a prime pickup opportunity, along with seats in West Virginia — which they are virtually guaranteed to win — and Ohio.
Tester is the last Montana Democrat elected statewide, and polls show him in a tight race against Republican businessman Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer backed by the Republican establishment, including Trump.
Millions entered the race, withTester with fundraising advantage.But the incumbent still faces political headwinds, given the state’s red scarcity. A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of Montana voters found Sheehy leading Tester by 2 points, a change from earlier this spring when the Democrat narrowly led.
A prediction from Decision Desk headquarters looks grim for Tester, giving Sheehy a 77 percent chance of winning the race. The DDHQ map labels the Montana race as “lean Republican,” while the nonpartisan electoral disadvantage Cook Political Report classifies this as a “launch”.
“He really wants Montanans to focus on his state record,” Hicks said of Tester. “He doesn’t want this to be a national campaign. And so the best way to avoid it being nationalized is to avoid national events and national candidates and say ‘This is about Montana.’”
Tester was the second Senate Democrat to call for President Biden to withdraw from the 2024 race. And when Montana delegates voted to help Harris secure the Democratic nomination in a virtual roll call vote,NBC MontanaandMontana Public Radioreported that Tester was the only one of the state’s delegates to decline his support.
That abstention was an internal baseball move that probably won’t draw much attention, but it was a defensive move, said Montana Republican strategist Erik Iverson, a former chairman of the Montana Republican Party and a pollster for Sheehy’s campaign. . If Tester had voted pro-Harris, Republicans would have taken advantage, he said.
Senate Republicans have previously criticized Tester for encouraging Harris to run for Senate in 2015, when he waschairof the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). Sheehy toorefilledTester’s endorsement on Twitter in 2020, when Harris became Biden’s vice-presidential pick, calling her rival “two-faced.”
Executive Director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Jason Thielmanstated in a recent columnthat Tester “has done everything he can to avoid telling Montanans where he stands in the upcoming presidential election.”
In a similar vein, Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf argued that some vulnerable Senate incumbents are planning to pass the Democratic convention, which begins in Chicago later this month, in order to avoid giving ammunition to Republicans.
A campaign spokesperson told the Associated Press thatTesterwill be “cultivating and meeting face-to-face with Montanans” during the convention. Sen.Sherrod Brown(D-Ohio), who is also fighting a Trump-backed opponent in an increasingly red state,told CNNhe will skip the meeting.
“It’s the photos of them there that are more dangerous than the act of being there itself,” Sheinkopf said of the decision to skip the event.
While many Democrats appear elated about the top of the ticket following the shake-up in the presidential race last month, it’s still early days, Sheinkopf said, and “no one really knows what the impact of Harris’ nomination will be.”
Tester has not been to the convention since 2008, according to the AP, when former President Obamajust a few points missingto become Montana.
Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide, argued that “boycotting the convention and not showing up with a candidate” is not enough to help Democrats like Tester sway voters.
“These candidates are doing their best to get away from the Harris-Walz ticket, but they can only run so far,” Darling said.
Tester’s actions create a vivid contrast with Sheehy, who embraced the top of the list,publicizing your alignmentwith Trump.
The former president went to Bozeman on Friday night to campaign with the Republican candidate. Although the state is virtually guaranteed to vote Trump’s way in the presidential race, after he won by large margins in 2016 and 2020, he is replayingyour efforts in 2018to expel Tester.
Meanwhile, Tester is cozying up to Montana Republicans, presenting himself as a lawmaker who can represent both ends of the state’s political spectrum. His “Republicans for Testers” group has more than 100 GOP members, including former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot and former Secretary of State Bob Brown, his campaign said.
“I will work with anyone, regardless of party, to do what is right for Montana,” said Sen.wrote on X earlier this week.
“I understand what Tester is trying to do, because he needs to,” said Iverson, the GOP strategist. “He is desperately trying to make Montana voters believe he is a moderate.”
“But now, the state’s voters are saying, ‘Well, if I want a Republican in the U.S. Senate, I better vote for a Republican.’”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
