Five takeaways from the Pennsylvania primary

Voters went to the polls for Pennsylvania’s primary on Tuesday, cementing the up-and-down race in what will be one of the critical swing states in November.

President Biden and Donald Trump cruised to victory in their respective races, as expected, although both faced protest votes. The Keystone State is one of seven key battlegrounds that will decide who wins the Oval Office on November 5th.

Pennsylvania will also be the site of one of the most closely watched Senate races of the fall, as Republican David McCormick, who has won Trump’s support despite previous friction with the former president, seeks to unseat Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa. )

Meanwhile, Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.), a staunch progressive who has been critical of Israel’s war against Hamas, managed to fend off a primary challenge from the center in a key victory for the left.

Here are five key takeaways from Tuesday night’s primary.

The game is on for Biden and Trump in the Keystone State

Biden and Trump were all but guaranteed to win their respective primaries on Tuesday night. Still, their victories serve as a kind of starting shot in what will be a critical state for both men as they seek to win the White House.

Trump currently leads Biden in Pennsylvania by a slim margin, 47% to 46%, according to a set of polls from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.

In a sign of the Keystone State’s importance in the presidential race, Biden participated in a three-city visit just a week ago, visiting his hometown of Scranton, where he presented his tax plan to blue-collar workers, before stopping in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, Trump held a rally in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania, earlier this month, just two days before he was scheduled to stand trial in a case involving alleged hush money payments to a porn star.

Their dueling visits underscore the importance of Pennsylvania, which went for Biden in 2020 by about 1 percentage point.

If the polls are any indication, this year’s race will be more of a toss-up.

A sleepy start to a crucial Senate race

McCormick’s expected victory in the GOP Senate primary solidifies his showdown with Casey, the Democratic nominee, in a race that could determine who controls the upper chamber next year.

Republicans missed out on a potential comeback in the Keystone State last cycle when Sen. John Fetterman (D) defeated Trump-backed Mehmet Oz, who had beaten McCormick in the primary.

Now the Republican Party is hoping the more establishment-aligned McCormick will give them a boost in a state that has so far slipped through their fingers when it comes to big races. In a sign of the party’s readiness to unite behind a candidate, Trump himself endorsed McCormick just a few weeks ago, despite some bad blood between the two men.

Casey currently leads McCormick 46 to 37 percent, according to a set of polls from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.

Republicans acknowledge the uphill climb facing the candidates but remain optimistic that he can prevail despite Casey’s name recognition — the Democrat’s father, Bob Casey Sr., was a two-time governor of the Keystone State.

Progressives have staying power

The left wing has faced persistent questions about its near-term future after many Democrats challenged progressives’ stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Lee, who on Tuesday easily defended his seat against Bhavini Patel, a moderate councilman from Edgewood in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District, rebuked the theory that progressive officeholders are among the most vulnerable this cycle.

Her primary victory was, in fact, stronger than her first run for Congress, when she narrowly overcame a wave of attacks from special interest groups who spent millions to defeat her. Unlike that race, the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and aligned organizations did not participate significantly in Tuesday’s race.

Lee brought in thousands of small dollar donations and ultimately accumulated $2.5 million, the campaign said on primary day.

His victory was a success for the grassroots campaign model that progressives popularized in the House, sending unlikely candidates to public office and protecting liberal incumbents who Democrats insisted had a shaky position.

It also gave a much-needed energetic boost to the party’s left flank, which has rejected centrists who say they have been useless — or outright harmful — to Biden’s first-term agenda and his position in the Middle East.

Protest votes highlight dissatisfaction with Biden and Trump

In a cycle where voters don’t like what’s in front of them, observers were watching closely to see how many protest votes were cast for both Biden and Trump.

Because Tuesday’s vote count did not include the number of “uncommitted” votes, it may be some time before the number of protest votes cast in the Democratic primary becomes clear. A relatively small number of votes were also cast for Biden’s former primary challenger, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.).

What was most evident were signs of apparent discontent on the part of the Republican Party. Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the Republican primary earlier this year and has yet to support Trump, won a double-digit vote share Tuesday night.

While that number didn’t impact Trump’s victory on Tuesday, it could indicate some potential problems for the former president in November.

Pennsylvania is one of the key swing states this cycle, with Biden and Trump factoring it into their calculations as part of their paths to 270. And in a state where Biden beat his 2020 rival by about a percentage point, every vote counts – suggesting that Trump’s allies may have reason to worry that Haley’s supporters will vote against him or sit out the election.

Biden performed much better than Trump in Tuesday’s respective primaries, winning the vast majority — 94.8% — of support over Phillips, a fellow moderate. But Phillips’ 5.2% should not go unnoticed. The small number represents a broader problem for Biden — that a portion of his own Democratic base, including centrists, does not want to see him reelected.

While the division of the uncommitted faction is still being determined, the fact that Pennsylvania voters are willing to cast protest votes for each major party could spell trouble for both potential candidates seeking the White House with little fanfare.

Holders have a good night

There was some speculation Tuesday that incumbents from both parties could be voted out.

This did not happened.

The most notorious example was the progressive Lee, who easily fended off a challenge from the center of his party.

But Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick also faced a notable opponent in the primary, in this case a hardliner from his party.

Anti-abortion activist Matt Houck was trying to unseat the moderate incumbent, a former FBI agent who represents a suburban county outside Philadelphia.

In the end, it wasn’t even really a contest: Fitzpatrick cruised to victory in a district that would have become much more competitive in November had Houck won. The Cook Political Report currently has Fitzpatrick’s seat as “likely Republican,” meaning Democrats will face a steep climb to flip him in November.