President Biden and former President Trump are tied in the latest national polling average of a hypothetical three-way election race that includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).
Biden and Trump are tied with 41.3 percent support, with Kennedy following with 7.7 percent, according to DDHQ’s average of 130 polls that asked respondents about a hypothetical three-way matchup in the 2024 general election.
Trump has consistently led Biden in the hypothetical three-way race since November 8, when Biden briefly overtook Trump, with 39.3% support to 39.1%. In December and January, Trump maintained a statistically significant lead over Biden, but Biden began to gain an edge over Trump early last month.
“Since President Biden delivered his State of the Union address in early March, we have seen him close the gap nationally to tie with former President Trump for the first time since November 2023,” said Scott Tranter of DDHQ.
The drop in polls, Tranter said, “is a harbinger of the intense campaigning and poll volatility we will experience as we approach the November elections.”
In recent days, several polls added to the DDHQ national polling average pointed to a very close race. A recent Economist/YouGov poll showed Trump and Biden tied with 43% support and Kennedy with 3%. A recent Quinnipiac University poll also had them tied at 37% support, with Kennedy at 16%.
Other polls in recent days have been divided. A Marist College poll showed Biden leading by 5 points, and an Emerson College poll showed Trump leading by 4 points.
The latest development in the national polling average of a hypothetical three-way race will be welcome news for the Biden campaign, which has redoubled efforts to prevent Kennedy from hampering the president’s re-election amid concerns about the independent candidate’s momentum . Many Democrats fear that Kennedy’s candidacy could do more damage to Biden’s re-election chances than Trump’s.
In hypothetical head-to-head confrontations between the two presidents, Biden also saw his numbers improve. As of last Wednesday, Biden and Trump were tied with 45.1% support, according to the DDHQ polling average. Trump now leads Biden by 0.3 percentage points, well within the margin of error of most polls.
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