A noted presidential election analyst said in a recent interview that “a lot would have to go wrong [President Biden] lose” in November.
On a interview with The Guardian released Friday, Professor at American University Allan Lichtman pointed out his method for predict presidential elections using 13 “keys,” including whether “the candidate of the incumbent party is the incumbent president” and “there is no serious contest for the nomination from the incumbent party.” Lichtman noted that Biden is the incumbent and easily defeated other members of the Democratic Party in the primaries.
“That’s two keys over the limit,” Lichtman said, according to The Guardian. “This means that six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”
Biden has been gaining on former President Trump in recent polls, tying with him in a recent Quinnipiac poll.
They are tied at 41.3 percent in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average in a three-way race with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Lichtman has a track record of correctly picking the winner of presidential elections since the mid-1980s. He predicted that Biden would beat Trump in the 2020 election and said in an interview with The Guardian that the COVID-19 pandemic “is what killed him.”
“The message of the keys is that what counts is governance and not campaigning, and instead of dealing substantively with the pandemic, as we know, he thought he could get out of it and that sank him,” Lichtman said, according to The Guardian.
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