Former President Donald Trump appears to have defied political gravity time and time again. This year, he won the Republican nomination for president while facing four different criminal charges.
Trump’s success may make people believe that he has turned conventional wisdom on its head — that somehow his legal troubles are helping him politically.
And while that may have been true in the primaries, the general election is a different ball game. There aren’t many signs that Trump’s legal troubles are helping him among the general electorate, even if they aren’t necessarily hurting him.
Considering the polling of Trump against President Joe Biden, one would think that Trump would be winning over Biden, if the cases against Trump were helping him. After all, attention turned away from the election and turned to the hush money trial in New York.
Instead, Biden has been the one to gain ground in recent months as both men have won their respective parties’ nominations.
While the exact amount of movement has varied by poll, Biden trailed by about 2 points on average during the height of the Republican primaries a few months ago.
Today, the race between Biden and Trump is essentially tied at the national level, with some pollsters placing Biden within the margin of error (e.g., Marist College and Reuters/Ipsos), some placing Trump within the margin of error (e.g., New York Times/Siena College and NBC News) and some placing them exactly tied (e.g., Quinnipiac University).
In a broader view, the first criminal indictment against Trump occurred in New York in late March 2023. And back then, election polls showed basically the same thing as they do now.
Some pollsters had Trump ahead within the margin of error (e.g., Ipsos), some had Biden ahead within the margin of error (e.g., Quinnipiac), and some had the race exactly tied (e.g., Marquette University Law School).
In fact, what may be happening is a slightly misinterpretation of what the survey data is reporting.
For example, the New York hush money case, where the data makes it clear that the majority of Americans do not think Trump did anything illegal: only 33% of Americans do, according to the latest CNN/SSRS poll.
Likewise, most Americans do not think that, if the accusations are true, they would be disqualifying for the presidency.
In other words, the public has no problem with Trump running for president, even with this case hanging over him. However, moving from these data points to saying that Americans don’t believe Trump did anything wrong is a logical leap.
These polls suggest that Americans are not satisfied with Trump’s actions. In addition to the 33% who think Trump did something illegal, there are another 33% who think he did something unethical, but not illegal, when it comes to his actions in the New York case. In other words, two-thirds of the public believe he did something wrong.
Furthermore, a significantly larger share of the public (42%) agrees that Trump is acting inappropriately during the hush money trial than appropriately (25%).
Trump has been accused of violating his gag orders and has given mini speeches outside the courtroom on several occasions.
The polling in the New York case is notable because it tends to be the worst public opinion polling. A larger portion of the public thinks, for example, that he should be disqualified from the presidency if the allegations in any of the other three criminal cases are true.
In other words, if Trump was getting a boost in the polls for any case, this should be it.
The lack of a breakthrough for the former president makes sense when one realizes that his central argument (i.e., that these cases are somehow a political witch hunt against him) is not being bought by a plurality of Americans.
In the last survey of CNN, 34% of Americans said Trump was being treated more harshly than other criminal defendants. A greater number said they were being treated more leniently (34%) or in the same way (13%).
An NBC poll, with a similar question, found that 50% of voters say he is being treated the same way as any other person accused of what he was, while 43% think he is being unfairly targeted.
In fact, people who are paying more attention to Trump’s criminal cases are more likely to favor Biden than those who aren’t, according to the Times poll.
Now, there is something to be said for the fact that Trump is raking in a lot of money from these different indictments and court appearances. That’s because many of Trump’s biggest fundraising days were days when he was in court.
The thing is, he’s also spending a lot of money on legal fees. According to the Financial Times, Trump’s different committees spent more than $75 million on legal costs. Biden’s campaign, by comparison, spent a fraction on legal costs.
It’s unclear whether the money Trump is raising from appealing to his base during his legal troubles is offsetting the amount his committees are spending.
Perhaps the best news for Trump is that he is tied nationally with Biden and is likely in a better position in the swing states that will determine who will be the next president.
Of course, considering he’s facing a candidate who most voters consider too old and who has an approval rating approaching 40%, it’s unclear whether that’s necessarily a big advantage.
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