5 things to watch in the Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries

Voters in Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska will go to the polls Tuesday as several tight Senate and House races take shape.

Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks is running against Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) for Democratic approval to take on former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) for a seat that has seen tens of millions of dollars spent so far. now this year.

Trone’s decision to run for Senate left his House seat open, with several Democrats eyeing the seat, including a former Biden administration official and a Gen Z state delegate.

Meanwhile, the retirement of Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Md.) pits a former U.S. Capitol Police officer who defended lawmakers during the Capitol riot against several state senators.

In Nebraska, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is running for re-election against a hard-line conservative, while several prominent Republicans are fighting in the GOP primary in the West Virginia governor’s race.

Here are five things to watch for in the Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries.

Who wins the Maryland Democratic Senate primary?

Alsobrooks and Trone are facing off in the Old Line State to win Democratic approval for outgoing Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D-Md.) seat. Trone spent $61 million alone, making it one of the most expensive Senate primaries this cycle.

Alsobrooks, in turn, has enjoyed the support of much of the Maryland party establishment, including Gov. Wes Moore (D), Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) .), between others.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now poll released last week found the two nearly tied, with Alsobrooks receiving 42 percent support and Trone receiving 41 percent, with the difference falling within the poll’s margin of error.

Trone made several missteps in his Senate campaign, including facing criticism after running an ad in which an officer vouching for Trone suggested that Alsobrooks needed “training wheels.” The Maryland Democrat was also forced to apologize following a House hearing where he mistakenly used a racial slur.

Whoever wins the Democratic primary will face Hogan, a popular former two-term governor. Although Democrats are favored to win the seat in November, Hogan’s entry is forcing Democrats to spend money in what was initially considered a safe race.

What do the protest votes look like for Biden and Trump?

Both President Biden and former President Trump have been forced to face protest votes as the president faces backlash for the White House administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, and Trump continues to lose votes to people who support the former rival Nikki Haley.

Haley received 128,000 votes in the Indiana GOP primary last week — two months after she dropped out of the race against Trump. The former UN ambassador also selected not insignificant portions of the Republican electorate in other states.

Trump defeated Biden in Indiana in 2020 by 16 points. If Trump sees similar or larger shares of Republican voters despising Trump in West Virginia, where he beat Biden by nearly 40 points, and in Nebraska, where he beat Biden by 19 points, they could portend more warning signs before November.

Both men are sure to face protest votes in Maryland as well, especially since the state is home to Hogan, a prominent Republican critic of Trump. Biden won Maryland by more than 30 points in 2020, but he could see a sizable portion of the primary electorate voting against him as the Israel-Hamas war plagues the White House.

Who comes out ahead in the crowded Maryland House races?

Several Democrats in Maryland are leaving their seats open this cycle, creating several competitive primaries. Sarbanes, who represents the 3rd Congressional District, announced last fall that he would not seek re-election.

The primary for her seat is a heated showdown between former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who defended lawmakers during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, and two state lawmakers: Sarah Elfreth and Clarence Lam.

Trone’s departure also opened up another major Democratic race, which includes April McClain Delaney, former assistant secretary for communications at the Department of Commerce in the Biden administration and wife of former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.), and Joe Vogel. , a 26-year-old state delegate.

Both seats are strongly Democratic, which means that whoever wins in each of them will be considered the big favorite to win in November.

Who comes out ahead in the race for governor of West Virginia?

A small group of Republicans in West Virginia with high-profile identification are fighting to win the Republican nomination in the gubernatorial race to replace Gov. Jim Justice (R): state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey; businessman Chris Miller, whose mother is Rep. Carol Miller (RW.Va.); former state Rep. Moore Capito, whose mother is Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (RW.Va.) and whose grandfather was a former governor; and Secretary of State Mac Warner.

Justice endorsed Capito last month, although Recent research has largely shown Morrisey leading first.

A sticking point in the Republican Party’s competitive primaries has surprisingly been the focus on transgender issues, as candidates seek to move further to the right.

“You would think there are hordes of transgender people [people] trying to cross the Ohio River into West Virginia. It’s absurd,” Charleston political strategist Tom Susman told The Hill.

Does Don Bacon survive his main challenge?

Bacon is running for a fifth term in the House, where he is fighting hard-line conservative Dan Frei.

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, entered the GOP primary to support Frei — which led Bacon to endorse Good’s challenger, John McGuire, in revenge.

Bacon is likely to come out ahead in the Republican primary, setting him up for a rematch against state Sen. Tony Vargas, a Democrat. Bacon beat Vargas in 2022 by more than 2 points.

Still, the fact that Bacon has seen at least one House Republican lawmaker enter the primary against him underscores the bitter divisions that have roiled the party in the lower house since last year.

Bacon’s seat will be key in House Republicans’ attempt to maintain their narrow majority this fall.

This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story