Poll shows tie between Donald Trump and Joe Biden

US President Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump are tied in the race for the November presidential election, at a time when Trump faces a criminal trial and Biden is the target of criticism for the White House’s support for Israel’s war against Hamas, shows a new Reuters survey carried out in partnership with Ipsos.

Around 40% of voters registered to participate in the election say they would vote for the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, if the election were held today. The same rate said it would support former President Donald Trump. The tie has remained since the last poll, carried out at the end of April, when Biden had an advantage of just 1 percentage point – a variation within the margin of error, which is two percentage points.

Many voters, however, remain on the fence, with just six months left until the election.

The survey identified that 20% of those interviewed had not yet chosen who to vote for or tended to opt for an independent candidate. The group also includes those who do not intend to participate in the election.

13% of respondents said they would choose Robert Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist, if he were in the race. The previous April poll showed Kennedy with support from 8% of Americans.

Even though national polls are an important indicator of American voters’ support for the candidates running for the White House, only a small group of states considered competitive define the outcome of the election, which works in the electoral college format.

Both Trump and Biden face important challenges in what is the first contest in around 70 years in which the same candidates from the previous presidential election are repeated.

The Republican spent much of his last months in a New York court defending himself against the first of four criminal charges that the former president faces in court.

This trial involves accusations that Trump defrauded electoral and tax laws to hide the payment of US$130,000 to a porn actress in 2016 in exchange for her silence about an alleged sexual relationship she claims to have had with Trump.

An earlier Reuters/Ipsos poll also found that a majority of Americans consider the allegations to be serious. Trump claims to be innocent and denies having had any relationship with the actress.

On Tuesday (14), Trump’s lawyers sought to discredit the prosecution’s main witness, a former adviser to the Republican who claims to have made the payment at Trump’s request.

The other charges involve suspicions that Trump tried to reverse the result of the 2020 election and that he illegally kept presidential documents even after leaving the White House. He claims to be innocent.

Regarding President Biden, the main challenges are the questions regarding his age, 81 years old, and the blunt criticism coming from the Democratic Party itself regarding the US support for Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip.

Protests at several US universities have heightened Democrats’ concerns about possible retaliation by young voters against President Biden.

The survey, which surveyed adults across the country, included different methodologies to assess support for candidates. In most of them, the result was the same: a draw.

When respondents had to choose exclusively between the two candidates, both scored 46% – 8% of Americans refused to answer.

Among registered voters who said they were sure they would vote in November, Biden has a three percentage point lead, a technical tie.

The survey collected online responses from 3,208 registered voters.