CNN polling expert Harry Enten signaled Tuesday that President Biden once welcomed polls when he was ahead during the 2020 election, but dismisses them now because they show him trailing former President Trump in some important states.
“He loved the polls from four years ago when they showed him ahead,” Enten told CNN anchor Erin Burnett on Tuesday. “These are the same polls now. But here’s the thing: the polls may be right at this point, and then keep in mind that we still have six months until the election. Research can change a lot.”
Enten was responding to comments Biden made to CNN last week in which he said, “the polling data was all wrong.”
“How many of you do a CNN poll? How many people do you need to call to get a response? Biden asked Burnett last week.
Polls recently released this week are raising more alarms for the current president, who is struggling to catch up to Trump’s lead in several battleground states.
A New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer survey, released earlier this week, found Trump leading in five of six swing states, with Wisconsin the only state the incumbent is ahead. The president is also losing support among young voters and among black and Hispanic voters, all groups crucial to his electoral coalition, according to the poll.
The poll results show Trump leading Biden by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 5 points in Michigan, 7 points in Arizona, 10 points in Georgia and 12 points in Nevada. Biden led Trump by 2 points in Wisconsin.
On Monday, Enten called the Nevada and Arizona numbers “an absolute disaster.” He added that Michigan’s numbers. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were less of a concern for the Biden campaign, suggesting that a sweep of the Great Lakes states and the traditional “blue wall” is the president’s most likely path to reelection.
Speaking with Burnett on Tuesday, the polling expert noted that polls months before presidential elections often vary from November election results.
“On Election Day, on average in swing states, the polls were six points lower than they had been in 1972,” he said. “In 2020, they lost five points. So if we’re talking about a two-point lead in these swing states, the polls might show one thing and then the other person could certainly win.”
Biden won all six swing states in 2020, although victories were notably narrow in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.
Biden allies told The Hill this week that his re-election campaign has more work to do to secure a victory in November.
“With the usual stipulations about the election being six months away, Biden is behind,” said Jim Kessler, co-founder of the left-leaning think tank Third Way. “They need to be in a better place on the border, crime and inflation to win. They have a story to tell about every action they can take, but they need to get to work.”
The Hill has reached out to the Biden campaign for further comment.
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