The imminent November rematch between President Biden and former President Trump could be decided by just a few states.
With Election Day six months away, all eyes are on seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — where 93 electoral votes will be up for grabs this fall.
Biden won all but North Carolina in 2020, but recent research suggests Trump has an advantage over the incumbent in several of these battlegrounds this cycle.
The race for the White House could come down to these swing states:
Arizona
Biden won Arizona last cycle by about a third of a percentage point, making it the first Democratic presidential victory in the Republican stronghold since the 1990s.
But Trump is now about 6 points ahead of Biden in Arizona, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill averages, where border issues are expected to play a key role in November.
Meanwhile, Democrats look to the Grand Canyon state, where 11 electoral college votes are up for grabs, as one of several places where reproductive rights issues could fuel turnout to boost the party.
The state just repealed a nearly total Civil War-era ban on abortion, and organizers are working to get a measure on the ballot that would enshrine protections for the procedure.
Republicans make up the largest group of registered voters in Arizona, but voters unaffiliated with either major party outnumber Democrats in the state, according tovoter registration statisticsfrom last month.
Rep. Ruben Gallego, the state’s Democratic Senate candidate, is leading his Republican rival Kari Lake in the race to replace independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and running ahead of Biden, according to a New York Times poll. Gallego got 45% to Lake’s 41%, while Biden got 42% to Trump’s 49%.
Georgia
Biden turned Georgia blue for the first time in decades in 2020, defeating Trump by less than 12,000 votes.
But as the pair prepare for a rematch in the Peach State, the 2024 race lacks the signature election contests and signs of high turnout that helped boost Biden four years ago.
There are 16 electoral votes on the table in Georgia in November, and DDHQ/The Hill polling averages have Trump up about 6 points, about 49 percent to Biden’s 43 percent.
The Times poll shows Trump with an even greater lead, putting the Republican ahead by 10 points.
Last cycle, Georgianswent to the pollsto elect Democrat Jon Ossoff as the state’s first Jewish senator and Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) as the state’s first black senator.
This year, the Republican primaries saw double the turnout of the Democratic contest, and Biden will have to energize the statesignificant black populationamid signs he is fighting with the bloc across the country.
Former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R), who is one of the few prominent Republicans who supported Biden in November, urged fellow Republicans not to “align themselves” with Trump. But it’s unclear whether Biden will be able to repeat his success in the Peach State in November.
Michigan
In Michigan, a battleground that Biden won by nearly 3 points in 2020, the incumbent saw a significant boost in protest votes in the Democratic primary from progressives and Arab Americans, which inspired similar boycotts of the polls in other states such as Wisconsin.
Arab Americans helped bring Biden to last cycle victoryand doubts persist about whether the critical bloc will return to its column after expressing anger in the primaries.
First lady Jill Biden took a trip to the Great Lakes state this week, with Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes saying the visit is “proving that the path to the White House runs through Michigan.”
Trump rose 4 points in the state, according to DDHQ/The Hill averages. Fifteen electoral college votes are at stake.
With its significant Arab-American population and large number of students, strategists say the presidential race in the Great Lakes State has the opportunity to be a notable bellwether for the 2024 race more broadly.
Nevada
Along with Arizona, Nevada could be another big Sun Belt swing state in November. Both states have notable Latino populations as both candidates compete for black voters this fall.
Biden won by 2.4 percentage points in 2020. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton beat Trump in Nevada in 2016, also by a narrow margin.
DDHQ/The Hill averages now show Trump with a nearly 7-point lead. The New York Times poll had Biden trailing by 12 points head-to-head, his worst result among the battlegrounds in that poll.
As in Arizona, a third-party candidate in the Silver State could further undermine support for major party candidates. It’s also another battleground where Democratic Senate candidates are faring better than the president: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) has a 2-point lead over Republican Sam Brown.
There are 6 electoral college votes on the table.
North Caroline
Although Biden won most of the swing states in 2020, Trump won North Carolina by about 1.5 points, after carrying the state by a slightly larger margin in 2016.
Biden’s campaign is now seeking to return North Carolina to the Democrats’ backbone, but acknowledged that a “tireless effort” is needed to do so over the next six months.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) said last month that he thinks Biden has a chance to win the Tar Heel State. Former President Obama was the last Democrat to win it back in 2008. And Republicans are grappling with potential political liability in gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has faced scrutiny for controversial comments in the past .
The electorally deficient nonpartisan Cook Political Report ranks North Carolina as a republican tendencywhile the other swing states are contested.
There are 16 electoral college votes up for grabs. DDHQ/The Hill averages show Trump with a 4.6 point lead.
Pennsylvania
Last month’s Pennsylvania primaries highlighted weaknesses for both Biden and Trump as they head into a November showdown.
Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the race nearly two months earlier, received more than 150,000 votes in the Keystone State, coming in close to 20 percent in several counties.
While his numbers didn’t stop Trump from winning delegates in the winner-take-all primary, they served as a red flag for the former president in the key battleground.
On the other side of the aisle, Biden faced his own protest vote push, with “Ditch Biden” rallying voters to boycott the incumbent at the polls over concerns about the administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
But, as with Nevada, there is a relatively popular Democratic senator running for re-election – in this case Bob Casey, who has consistently been ahead of Biden in the polls, as well as his Republican rival, David McCormick.
DDHQ/The Hill averages have Biden trailing by 1.7 points in the state he won by 1.2 points in 2020. Recent polls from The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer show Trump with a slightly wider lead , rising three points.
There are 19 electoral college votes up for grabs in Pennsylvania.
Wisconsin
Bidenbeat Wisconsin by by less than a percentage point during the 2020 cycle, and Trump now leads by less than 1 point, according to DDHQ/The Hill averages.
A Quinnipiac University poll released this month showed that Biden’s head-to-head lead over Trump in Wisconsin narrowed from 6 points to just 1 point when third-party candidates were added to the mix, suggesting independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. contenders can serve as major spoilers.
Biden traveled to the Badger State earlier this month to announce a $3.3 billion investment from Microsoft to build a new artificial intelligence data center in the state — and to draw a contrast with a planned Trump-era investment that never materialized.
The Republican National Convention will be held this summer in Milwaukee, where Trump has hinted he might announce his 2024 running mate.
“It’s really an important state for us. Wisconsin has to be won by us,” Trump told Scripps News in ainterview this week. “We want to win. If we win Wisconsin, I think we’ll win it all.”
Ten electoral college votes are at stake in Wisconsin.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
