7 states where Trump could expand the map in November

Former President Trump is talking about flipping blue-leaning states in his already tight race with President Biden for the White House.

Trump and Biden are fighting over several key battlegrounds – including Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan – but the former president’s campaign says traditionally bluer states are also in play.

In recent weeks, he has focused on Minnesota and Virginia, states that voted against him in 2016 and 2020 — but where some polls now suggest the two are separated by just a few points. The polls would probably still need to shift more in Trump’s favor to make these states more realistic, but there are some signs that they could eventually be on the table.

Here are seven blue states that Trump hopes could turn red in November:

Minnesota

Although he last voted for a Republican in a presidential election more than half a century ago, Trump has frequently referred to Minnesota as a state where he can expand his map on the path to winning the presidency.

And it could be one of the most likely places for him to turn if the election seriously tips in his direction.

The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill state poll average is based on relatively few polls, but Biden only leads by a little more than half a point. An internal poll conducted between the end of last month and the beginning of this month by the Trump campaign showed the former president leading by 3 points, while another independent poll showed Biden leading by 2.

Trump nearly won in 2016, losing to Hillary Clinton by less than 2 points, the closest margin of victory for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1984. But Biden won comfortably in 2020, winning by 7 points.

Trump has vowed to win the North Star State in 2020 and said he will “never go back” if he loses it. But Trump returned to the state earlier this month for the Republican Party’s Lincoln Reagan Dinner, falsely claiming he won Minnesota in 2016 and 2020.

Meanwhile, Democrats in the state have set aside a possible upset, with Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) telling CBS that Trump is “grasping at straws.”

New Hampshire

The Granite State hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2000, but it has regularly had one of the narrowest margins in recent decades.

The state was Hillary Clinton’s closest margin of victory in 2016, at less than half a point. Biden greatly improved his margin in 2020 with a 7-point victory, but polls so far indicate a closer race could be in store.

The few polls carried out mostly showed Biden ahead, but only by a few points. He leads in the DDHQ/The Hill polling average 48.5% to 44.5% and led by the same margin in a poll this month.

But another NH Journal/Praecones Analytica poll this month of a three-way race that includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. showed Trump just ahead with 36.6 percent to Biden’s 36.5 percent, though well within the margin of error.

Biden has made a few visits to New Hampshire during the campaign, most recently on Tuesday for a event to publicize the PACT Law focused on veterans’ health care.

Trump may have to turn more attention to the state to break the Democratic trend in the presidential election, but the state has regularly been in talks as a battleground this century.

Virginia

Biden beat Trump in Virginia by almost half a million votes four years ago – and four years before that, the Old Dominion was the only southern state next to with Clinton.

But this year, the former president decided to turn the state back to red.

Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita said NBC News that the Biden campaign is “deliberately playing a false game” in its ambitions to flip states like Florida and North Carolina, but argued that the former president has “a real, real opportunity to expand the map in Virginia and Minnesota.”

The campaign pointed to internal polls that reportedly showed Biden with a small lead in Virginia. DDHQ/The Hill polling averages have Biden with a lead of less than 2 points, at about 46 percent to Trump’s 44 percent.

A survey carried out for Kennedy’s campaign to explain how the independent could reach 270 electoral votes found Trump 1 point ahead of Biden in the head-to-head matchup in Virginia, according to DDHQ, while Kennedy’s presence at the polls shifted the state into Biden’s column.

Maine

Maine is even further on the edge of Republican presidential candidates, having not voted for any since 1988, but it is not completely inconceivable if the election moves into landslide territory.

A Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus poll found Trump ahead of Biden by 6 points among Maine voters, with 38 percent to Biden’s 32 percent — while “other candidate” got 21 percent and 9 percent said they were undecided, as reported by Spectrum News.

Another poll from last month associated with Kennedy put Trump ahead of Biden by less than 2 points. With Kennedy in the running in a three-way race, polls showed Biden would win Maine, according to the Kennedy campaign.

Trump hasn’t appeared to talk about winning Maine this cycle, at least yet, but he said in August 2020 who was supposed to lead the state that year. Biden won by 9 points.

new York

Trump is on trial in New York in a landmark case centered on a hush-hush payment made during his 2016 campaign, but he nonetheless projects confidence that he can conquer the Empire State in 2024.

“I think we have a chance to win in New York. It hasn’t been done in, you know, many, many decades. As a Republican, I think we have a good chance. When you see the crowd, no one has ever seen it,” Trump told “Fox and Friends” in an interview broadcast Friday after holding a rare rally in the Bronx.

“And we will win in New York. And if we win in New York, the election is over. We took control of the country. We dominate the country.”

Polls have shown Biden is predictably ahead in New York, which has voted blue in presidential elections for more than three consecutive decades — but a new research from Siena College puts Biden’s lead in the single digits, at 47% versus Trump’s 38%.

The 45th president’s event in New York on Thursday underscored how he is working to drum up support in Democratic strongholds. The rally came on the heels of stops in the blue states of Minnesota and New Jersey.

New Jersey

The Garden State appears to be another shot in the dark that Trump is trying to make in November.

“We’re going to try to beat the state of New Jersey. I want people to know that. It won’t just be like, ‘Gee, maybe we can get close.’ We will win,” Trump said during a radio interview in NJ101.5.

That’s an ambitious goal in a state that Biden won by 16 points in the last cycleand who has gone for the Democrats in every presidential contest since supporting Bill Clinton in 1992.

Little research has been done on what a Trump-Biden rematch in New Jersey would look like this time, but the former president is still optimistic about the possibility of an upset.

“As you can see, today we are expanding the electoral maps because we are officially going to play in the state of New Jersey,” Trump told the crowd at a Jersey Shore rally earlier this month, while reported by the New Jersey Monitor. “We’re going to beat the state of New Jersey.”

New Mexico

New Mexico was among a handful of states that Trump said Breitbart in January, he may have been “foolish” to make a move, but he planned to do it anyway.

“One of the other things I’m going to do — and I might be a fool to do it — is make a big play for New York, a big play for New Jersey, a big play for Virginia, a big play for New Mexico and a big play heavy for a state that hasn’t been won in years: Minnesota,” said Trump.

The Land of Enchantment last voted for a Republican president in 2004, and although Trump tried turning New Mexico red in the last cycle, Biden won in 2020 by approximately 10 points.

Polls in the state have been thin this cycle, but another recent poll sponsored by Kennedy shows a 7-point lead for Biden in the state.

This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story