Former President Trump has a two in three chance of winning the White House in November, according to The Economist’s election forecasting model released Wednesday.
The model predicts that Trump has a 66 in 100 chance of winning, while President Biden has a 33 in 100 chance of winning.
The results are similar to a forecasting model Decision Desk HQ and The Hill released late last month. In the most recent update of this model, Trump has a 56 in 100 chance of winning the presidency, while Biden has a 44 in 100 chance.
The Economist’s forecast model, which is expected to be updated daily, puts the probability of a Trump victory at the highest level since early March – the earliest daily forecast that The Economist has retroactively included in its forecast model.
For about three months, Trump’s odds of winning were in the 50s, occasionally reaching 60 or 61. Biden’s odds, on the contrary, were mostly in the low to mid 40s, occasionally dropping to 39 or 40.
Unlike national polling averages – which suggest a contest between Trump and Biden – the prediction model analyzes the electoral college vote map and calculates the probability of a candidate reaching the 270 votes needed to win.
The Economist model identifies six swing states, worth 77 electoral votes, that will be decisive in November, noting that Trump won 5 of 6 in 2016 and Biden won all six in 2020.
Four states are classified as “swing,” meaning the probability of a Trump victory in the state is less than 65 out of 100: Nevada (64 out of 100), Pennsylvania (63 out of 100), Wisconsin (59 out of 100), and Michigan (56). out of 100).
The model predicts that a Trump victory is “likely” (65-85 out of 100) in Georgia (76 out of 100) and Arizona (69 out of 100).
The Economist notes that each of these six states has a varying degree of importance for each candidate. The model predicts that Pennsylvania’s probability of deciding the outcome of the election is 24%, and Michigan’s probability is 14%. The remaining states are below 10%.
For Biden, victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are especially important to winning the electoral college. The model predicts that Biden has a 5 in 100 chance of re-election if he loses Michigan, a 7 in 100 chance if he loses Pennsylvania and a 9 in 100 chance if he loses Wisconsin.
A loss in Arizona or Nevada would reduce Biden’s chances to 20 in 100, while a loss in Georgia would reduce his chances to 24 in 100.
Pennsylvania will also be key to Trump’s victory. A loss in Pennsylvania reduces the probability of his victory from 66 out of 100 to 21 in 100. A loss in Michigan or Wisconsin would reduce the probability to 30 in 100. A loss in Arizona would mean he would still be 35 out of 100. 100 shots, a A loss in Georgia would give you a 37 out of 100 shot, and a loss in Nevada would give you a 42 out of 100 shot.
O model matches National and state-level polls with various other date points – including historical voting patterns, economic indicators and demographic information – have proven to be predictive in previous presidential election cycles.
The model then runs 10,001 scenarios, each containing “different vote shares in each state and different values for the impact of polling bias and other characteristics.” The final determination reflects the percentage of scenarios each candidate won.
This article was updated at 11:49 am
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
