The unprecedented confrontation in Atlanta between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Thursday night (27) has a good chance of becoming the most important presidential debate in US history.
For the first time, a sitting president and a former president will face each other in front of millions of viewers, in a meeting that will take place much earlier than usual – even before the party conventions. The confrontation organized by CNN It’s the most crucial moment in a tight election, and it’s Biden’s best chance to fuel a re-election bid he risks losing as he struggles to convince voters he has delivered the political and economic normality he promised in 2020. .
The important nature of this debate can only be fully understood against the backdrop of the unprecedented politics of the time. Since Senator John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon staged the first televised debate of the 1960 campaign, there have been agonizingly close elections that have set the country on a markedly different course. But the stakes in 2024 are higher than ever due to Trump’s attempt to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power based on false claims of fraud in the 2020 election and his promise to wage a never-before-seen presidency of personal revenge if he wins in November.
If Senator John Kerry had defeated President George W. Bush in 2004 or former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney had made President Barack Obama a one-term president in 2012, there would have been significant policy changes. But the character of the republic and its global stance would not have been fundamentally altered. This guarantee cannot be applied with any confidence to current elections. Trump’s strongman impulse – epitomized by his assertion before the Supreme Court that presidents have nearly unlimited power, as well as a model for new hardline policies on immigration, economics and foreign policy – means that a second mandate could bring massive disruption.
“(It’s) unbelievably historic. You can’t overstate the importance of this,” presidential historian Douglas Brinkley told Wolf Blitzer. CNN on Wednesday (26).
Democrats are desperate for Biden, 81, to demonstrate vitality and insight amid concerns about his age. The 78-year-old Trump’s greatest weakness may be himself and the possibility of a performance that could validate Biden’s warnings that he is too “troubled” to be president.
Biden is expected to attack Trump over abortion – one of the few policy areas in which he surpasses the former president – and his admiration for foreign dictators. Trump is already signaling that he will portray Biden’s America in dystopian terms, beset by uncontrolled immigration, rampant crime and devastating economic pain. The most extraordinary aspect of the debate is that it comes less than a month after Trump was convicted in a criminal case of hidden money in New York. Biden has highlighted the guilty verdict at campaign events, but Trump insists he is the victim of an attempt to weaponize the legal system to interfere in the election.
Both candidates face extreme pressure
Both men hope to avoid the kind of debate night gaffes or strange personal quirks that have often gone viral and dominated critical post-debate media coverage, which helps cement the perception of who won and who lost in voters’ minds. . Vice President Al Gore’s theatrical sighs in 2000 and George HW Bush’s reckless glance at the clock in 1992 both became emblems of losing campaigns. The risks are now much greater because of social networks.
Presidential debates don’t always decide who wins in November. But the tension surrounding this year’s first debate, in June rather than September or October as is customary, is palpable.
“The closer the election is, the greater the chance that a debate can influence the final outcome,” said Aaron Kall, director of debates at the University of Michigan, who has conducted an in-depth study of all presidential debates. “Often these errors reaffirm a caricature of one of the specific candidates that existed before it happened.” For Biden, that means there are no major moments, and Trump would be well-advised to avoid outbursts that confirm Biden’s characterization as a tyrant in waiting.
Neither Trump nor Biden have debated since their final confrontation in the 2020 campaign, interrupted by the pandemic. And the preparation for one of the most important nights of their lives reflected their character and political personality.
The president has been out of sight for days, huddled under the oaks, cottonwoods and maples at the Camp David retreat with counselors, strategizing how to deal with the most challenging debate foe in history. Fueled by lasagna and tacos, he participated in mock debates, dove into briefing folders and tried to anticipate Trump’s wild twists and diversions. It’s a field of debate that chimes with Biden’s view that he is locked in an existential electoral duel with the soul of the nation at stake.
The former president hates mock debates and instead honed his preparation at rallies and events, relying on his instincts and intuition and a fierce sense of an opponent’s political weakness. He did, however, have policy update sessions with aides and some potential vice presidential picks, including Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
Biden raised the stakes for himself entering the debate higher than any modern president has faced. He argues that Trump is a criminal who has “snapped” and is too dangerous and reckless to be allowed back into the White House. He also rebuked Trump for using Nazi-style language and warned that democracy and freedom are up for vote, along with the ability of “We the People” to shape America’s destiny.
Preparing for Anything at Camp David
Biden’s debate team is led by former White House chief of staff Ron Klain, who has been preparing Democrats for presidential debates for a generation. One of Klain’s mantras is “although you can lose a debate at any time, you can only win it in the first 30 minutes.” Biden is therefore expected to prioritize the most important points to attract the probably highest-rated part of the event in prime time.
Biden’s team has been poring over Trump’s recent interviews and public speeches as they prepare responses to whatever he and the moderators might throw Biden’s way. The president will be ready for whatever version of Trump emerges — whether it’s the bombastic opponent who spoke and insulted him in their first confrontation in 2020, or a more restrained challenger who seeks to project stability. If Trump aims for a presidential position, Biden has a closet full of practiced attacks and rebuttals designed to provoke him into outbursts that could alienate voters.
A Biden adviser told CNN that debate preparations included preparing the president to respond if Trump got personal — weeks after his son Hunter was convicted on felony gun charges. Biden’s love and protective instinct for his family are always at the forefront, and he reacted furiously when the then-president mentioned Hunter during their first debate in 2020.
Biden has been running around inside a large hangar at the Maryland retreat, where there is a simulated debate stage complete with bright television lights. Her personal lawyer, Bob Bauer, is playing Trump, and other aides served as moderators of the CNNDana Bash and Jake Tapper.
But sources told CNN that the practice of debate was more than just feeling comfortable. It is also about answering the question of age. The president’s aides and allies have often pointed to his State of the Union address in March as an example of Biden at his best. He was energetic, focused and agile, they argued, throughout his 67-minute prime-time speech.
Trump’s debate prep is as unorthodox as he is
Incumbent presidents often get a rude awakening in their first presidential debates, as they are not used to someone butting in and contradicting them. But Trump’s advantage in this regard may be compromised, given that this year he refused to debate any of his rivals in the Republican Party primaries. Still, his aggressive debating style is not much different from the belligerent and aggressive attitude he displays at most public events.
Trump has heated up the debate by suggesting that Biden will be “high” on drugs, while his aides are frantically trying to dismantle the expectations trap that the former president has built for himself by suggesting that Biden is so mentally broken that he can barely get up or finish a sentence. At any other time, the idea of a candidate accusing an opponent of doping would be unthinkable. But Trump’s tactics are reminiscent of a presidency and political style that destroyed all previous norms.
In a new memo on Wednesday, the Trump campaign signaled that the former president would attack Biden over immigration and the economy. He boasted about the poll averages that, according to his team, show the former president in all the main states.
And Trump, whose administration has created a firestorm of daily falsehoods, has characteristically worked to accuse Biden of the same transgression that is most associated with him — lying. “The man is a walking lie machine and a fact-checker’s dream,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, while accusing Biden, one of the best presidential golfers, of being unable to hit a 30-foot ball.
Trump’s unorthodox approach means the country could receive another reminder of the chaos, discord and cacophony he experienced during his four years in office – and which his supporters love and want to restore.
But it’s also a risk that could influence Biden’s desire to make voters see the contrast between the 45th and 46th presidents, who he believes could win him the election.
Former Obama speechwriter Terry Szuplat said successful debate performances tell a coherent story about where the country is and where it’s going.
“It’s a story about you. Why you are the right candidate. Why the other candidate is the wrong candidate. And it’s a story about the future. Every election is about the future. It’s a choice about the future,” Szuplat told Kasie Hunt, from CNN.
Neither Trump nor Biden have so far achieved this goal. This Thursday is the best opportunity to do so.
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